Behavioral finance Flashcards
Traditional finance
Investors are rational, markets are efficient, returns are determined by risk mean variance; portfolio governs
Behavioral finance
Investors are “normal”, markets aren’t efficient, behavioral portfolio theory governs. Risk alone, doesn’t determine returns
Hueristic
Approach to problem solving that employs a practical method “rule of thumb”. Easier to make decisions
Affect Heuristic
occurs when our current emotional state or mood influences our decisions. Instead of evaluating the situation objectively, we rely on our “gut feelings” and respond according to how we feel. As a result, the affect heuristic can lead to suboptimal decision-making
You might invest in a company because you like the company’s values or mission, even if the stock performance isn’t strong
Think Ceirra B
Affinity Bias
Investing in things you love, rather than what’s optimal
Anchoring
Holding an investment too long. Anchored to one piece of data rather than looking at the full picture
Fixating on reference points, usually the first piece of info
if an investor reads a positive analyst report about a company’s future prospects, they may anchor their perception of the stock’s potential to that report, ignoring subsequent negative news or changes in market conditions
Availability Heuristic
We rely on immediate examples that are available in our mind while making judgements
When trying to decide which store to visit, you choose the one you most recently saw an ad for
Bounded rationality
Decision making is bound by limited information. They make the easy choice, not the optimal choice.
when choosing what to wear in the morning, we only consider some outfits we can select
Confirmation Bias
We tend to find and remember information that confirms our perceptions
if markets are falling and you form an opinion that it will fall further, you will look for information that reaffirms your belief that the market will fall
Conservatism Bias
The tendency to prefer existing evidence over new evidence that might change your view on something, which is caused by resistance to change your opinion about something
Cognitive Dissonance
Conflicting believes
Discomfort from having two conflicting beliefs.
“I want to be more aggressive” market correction “i’m so stressed out about the market going down”
Disposition Effect
Sell winners quickly, hold losers, comparing price to the purchase price, not market value.
An investor sells a stock that’s increased in value, but holds onto a stock that’s decreased in value
Endowment Effect
You value things that you own more than if you have no connection to it.
An investor who inherits stock from a relative might be reluctant to sell it, even if it’s not a good fit for their portfolio or investment goals, simply because they feel attached to it.
Familiarity Bias
Bias to overestimate risk of an investment that they are familiar with, and underestimate things they are unfamiliar with
we may only invest in companies with brands that we recognize
Flat Rate Bias
Rather pay flat rate, even when a per-use amount might be more optimal
Framing Bias
How things are presented determine how we respond
Meat says “80% lean, 20% fat” instead of “20% fat, 80% lean”
Gambler’s Fallacy
Must be due for a win
Mistaken belief that if an independent event happens more frequently, it should start occurring less frequently
Herding
Do what everyone else is
Follow what everyone else is doing due to fear of missing out
bandwagon effect
Hindsight Bias
Looking back, after the fact is known, and assuming they can predict the future
House Money Effect
Take more risk: a lot more risk. Disassociate with it emotionally
more willing to spend and take risks with money we’ve obtained easily or unexpectedly
Snakebite Effect
Take less risk: makes you timid. Avoiding participating to avoid the pain
become scared to consider the risky securities for investment after a big loss, which is none other than the feeling of “snakebite” effect
Breakeven-itis
Take more risk to get back to baseline
Illusion of control
People overestimate their ability to control events
Investors may believe they can predict stock market movements or pick winning investments
Law of small numbers bias
Generalizations about group based on behaviors of a few
An investor might see a stock perform well for a short period (a small sample) and incorrectly conclude that it’s a long-term winner, ignoring potential market volatility or other factors.