Behavioral Finance Flashcards
What is Prospect Theory?
investors value gains and losses differently, placing more weight on perceived gains versus perceived losses.
Loss Aversion
suggests investors chose perceived gains because losses cause a greater emotional impact.
What is the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis?
It reconciles Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) with research in behavioral economic.
Markets evolve over time as individuals different heuristics and biases to make decisions
Conclusions & Results:
– Opportunities for arbitrage
– Value in quantitative, fundamental, technical strategies
– Survival is primary objective; profit and utility secondary
– Innovation is key to survival and growth
What are the 6 existing belief biases?
a. cognitive dissonance
b. conservatism bias
c. confirmation bias
d. representative bias
e. illusion of control bias
f. hindsight bias
What is Cognitive Dissonance
It is confusion or frustration that arises when an individual receives new information that does not match up with or conform to preexisting beliefs or experiences
Bias Type: Existing Beliefs
People may rationalize their choices, even when faced with facts that demonstrate that they made poor decisions.
What is an example of Cognitive Dissonance?
Holding on to a losing positions that they otherwise would sell because they want to avoid the mental pain associated with admitting that they made a bad decision.
What is Conservatism Bias?
Cling to prior views or forecasts at the expense of acknowledging new information; being slow to change
Bias Type: Existing Beliefs
It occurs when people maintain prior views or forecasts by inadequately incorporating new information.
Investors often under-react to new information and fail to modify their beliefs and actions
What are examples of Conservatism Bias
clinging to a view or a forecast, behaving too inflexible when presented with new information.
Assume an investor purchases a security based on the knowledge that the company is planning a forthcoming announcement regarding a new product. The company then announces that it has experienced problems bringing the product to market. The investor may cling to the initial, optimistic impression of some imminent, positive development by the company and may fail to take action on the negative announcement.
What is Confirmation Bias?
people observe, overvalue, or actively seek out information that confirms what they believe while ignoring or devaluing information that contradicts their beliefs
Bias Type: Existing Beliefs
Occurs when people maintain their prior views or forecasts by inadequately incorporating new information. Investors often under-react to new information and fail to modify their beliefs and actions.
What is Representativeness Bias?
processing new information using pre-existing ideas or belief; an investor views a particular situation or information a certain way because of similarities to other examples even if it does not really fit into that category
Bias Type: Existing Beliefs
It occurs as a result of a flawed perceptual framework when processing new information using pre-existing ideas.
an investor may view a particular stock as a value stock because of similarities to an earlier value stock that was a successful investment, even if the new investment is not actually a value stock.
What is gambler’s fallacy?
An example of representativeness bias.
The belief that luck, whether in the casino or in the stock market, runs in streaks.
Gamblers and investors will apply their own theories and misconceptions to events and bet or invest according to their own beliefs while ignoring or discounting meaningful data.
What is Illusion of Control Bias?
people believe they can control or influence investment outcomes when in reality they cannot
Bias Type: Existing Beliefs
contributes to investor overconfidence.
Investors who have been successful in business or other professional pursuits believe that they should also be successful in the investment realm.
What they find is that they may have had the ability to shape outcomes in their vocation, but investments are a different matter altogether.
What is Hindsight Bias?
Investors perceive investment outcomes as if they were (had been) predictable, even if they were not; can give investors a false sense of security when making investment decisions leading them to excessive risk-taking
Bias Type: Existing Beliefs
When an investment appreciates, hindsight-biased investors tend to rewrite their own memories to portray the positive developments as if they were predictable.
The rationale can inspire excessive risk taking because hindsight-biased investors begin to believe that they have superior predictive powers, when, in fact, they do not. The bursting of the technology bubble is an example of this bias in action.
What 7 biases are based on information processing
a. mental accounting
b. anchoring and adjustment bias
c. framing bias
d. availability bias
e. self-attribution bias
f. outcome bias
g. recency bias
What is Mental Accounting?
Treating various sums of money differently based on where these monies are mentally categorized.
Bias Type: Information Processing
It can cause people to imagine that their investments occupy separate “buckets,” or accounts. Envisioning distinct accounts to correspond with financial goals however, can cause investors to neglect positions that offset or correlate across accounts. This can lead to suboptimal aggregate portfolio performance.
In the same vein as anchoring bias, mental accounting bias can cause investors to succumb to the “house money” effect, wherein risk-taking behavior escalates as wealth grows. Investors exhibiting this rationale behave irrationally because they fail to treat all money as fungible. Biased financial decision making can, of course, endanger a portfolio.
What are Anchoring and Adjustment Bias
Being influenced by purchase point or arbitrary price levels and cling to these numbers when deciding to buy or sell
Bias Type: Information Processing
Relying too heavily on certain information (often the first data points received) when making decisions
What is Framing Bias?
Responding to similar situations differently based on the context in which the choice is presented
Bias Type: Information Processing
It is the tendency to respond to various situations differently based on the context in which a choice is presented (framed).
The use of risk tolerance questionnaires provides a good example. Depending upon how questions are asked, framing bias can cause investors to respond to risk tolerance questions in an either unduly conservative or aggressive manner.
What is Availability Bias?
Easily recalled outcomes (often from more recent information) are perceived as being more likely that those that are harder to recall or understand
Bias Type: Information Processing
It occurs when people use a rule-of-thumb to estimate the likelihood of an outcome based on how easily the outcome comes to mind.
What is Self-Attribution Bias?
Ascribing successes to innate talents and blaming failures on outside influences
Bias Type: Information Processing
Instead of realizing the reason an investment choice went up due to random factors (e.g., economic conditions or competitor failures), attributing the success to the investor’s investment savvy.
If the investment choice loses money, investors may believe that it was random factors (e.g., economic conditions or competitor failures).
What is Outcome Bias?
making decisions or take action based on the outcome of past events rather than by observing the process by or through which that outcome occurred
Bias Type: Information Processing
Investors who are susceptible to outcome bias may make mutual fund investments based on their focus on the outcome of a past investment experience related to this decision—such as their manager’s track record or the asset class performance of that particular investment— and are not focused on how the returns were generated or why they should be investing in that asset class.
What is Recency Bias?
Easily recall and emphasize recent events/observations and often extrapolate recent patterns where there are none
Bias Type: Information Processing
Recency bias can cause investors to extrapolate patterns and make projections based on historical data samples that are too small to ensure accuracy.
Investors who forecast future returns based too extensively on only a recent sample of prior returns are vulnerable to purchasing at price peaks. These investors tend to enter asset classes at the wrong times and end up experiencing losses.
What are biases based on emotions?
a. loss-aversion
b. overconfidence bias
c. self-control bias
d. status quo bias
e. endowment bias
f. regret-aversion bias
g. affinity bias
What is Loss-Aversion Bias?
The pain of loss is roughly twice as painful as the pleasure of gains (core tenet of Prospect Theory)
Bias Type: Emotional
Loss aversion prevents people from unloading unprofitable investments, even when they see no prospect of a turnaround.
Some industry veterans have labeled this phenomenon “get-even-itis.”
This bias also drives poor decisions based on the so-called “sunk-cost fallacy”.
What is Overconfidence Bias?
Unwarranted faith in one’s own thoughts and abilities
Bias Type: Emotional (some also consider this cognitive)
Overconfident investors often hold under-diversified portfolios, thereby taking on more risk without a commensurate change in risk tolerance.
What is Self-Control Bias?
Human tendency to focus on instant gratification due to lack of discipline, consequently failing to act in the best interest of long-term goals
Bias Type: Emotional
It can cause investors to lose sight of basic financial principles, such as compounding of interest, dollar cost averaging, and similar discipline behaviors that, if adhered to, can help create significant long-term wealth.