Basics Part 1 - Assess the Property Market Flashcards
What does take “A RIDE” : Evidence stand for?
A = Actual Evidence
R = Ratio of Affordability I = Interest Rates D = Demand and Supply E = Employment and Economy
What’s the 1st Fundamental Principle of Property Investing?
It MAKES MONEY, consistently over time and is the most common vehicle for wealth amongst the wealthy
It makes REGULAR INCOME and CAPITAL APPRECIATION
Why do we do take A RIDE ?
To assess where the markets at and where it may be going in the near future (for any market big/small)
What does ACTUAL EVIDENCE mean?
What do we “Actually” KNOW about what’s going on in the property market at the moment
When we’re looking at market evidence, is it better to look at short term evidence or have a longer term view?
It’s much better to have a LONGER TERM EVIDENCE, to be confident about our decisions.
Ie. 50 year price chart growth vs. 1 year price chart growth
On average, in the UK, how much % has property prices increased per year for the last 1000 years?
10.2% per year
What is the Rule of 72?
Take the number 72 and divide by rate of annual % growth will give you how long it takes for the asset to DOUBLE in value.
72 ————-—— = 7.05 years % growth rate (10.2%)
What does the “actual evidence” tells us about property market?
- That over the long term, prices will go up.
- There’s “wobbles” in the market that create opportunities
What’s the 2nd Fundamental Principle of Property investing?
EVERYBODY has to live somewhere, irregardless of the market place and prices
In the UK, what happened to the Private housing rental sector that was so significant?
It surpassed the social housing sector and is now the number 2 provider of rentals
Because everyone has to live somewhere all the time, what is the opportunity in this?
When the market is rising go for capital first
When it’s static or falling go for the income first or residual (cashflow)
When assessing your Actual Evidence, what are some important key factors?
- Longer term is more reliable
- Different evidence data for different housing types; flats, units, houses
- 3rd party and independently accredited
What are the different levels of “Evidence” in terms of reliability?
- General - newspaper, TV, Radio, Taxi Driver conversations, Aunty Flo (unreliable)
- Local - www.checkmyarea.com (little bit more reliable)
- Comprehensive - www.whizzamania.com
- Very Specific - www.zoopla.co.uk ; Mouse Price
- Very Exact Information - Govt. Land Registry website
Apart from market trends and data, what other ACTUAL evidence is important to note?
- Income Returns
- Number of Mortgages; also the LTV/LVR, styles of mortgage products
- Amount of mortgages - and types
- Number of Sellers and Buyers
- Speed and strength of sale
- # of days
- Asking-to-Offer price ratio
What generally does the number of sellers and buyers tell us about the market?
Demand
5 buyers vs. 55 Sellers is a flooded market and vice verse
These figures are usually issued by conveyancing groups or real estate agent groups
Actual Evidence needs to be __________, ___________ and ___________.
Actual evidence needs to be Credible, Reliable and Fundamental.
What is Rainbow Chasing?
Rainbow chasing is chasing PREVIOUS DATA.
If a market has already shown to increase last year by 20-25%, the chances that the same suburb will increase by 20-25% again this year is very slim, UNLESS there’s other evidence to support it.