B5 Flashcards

1
Q

What are the two broad views on how fiscal and monetary policymakers should respond to the business cycle?

A
  1. The economy is inherently unstable and requires government intervention to offset fluctuations.
  2. The economy is inherently stable and government intervention interferes with the natural balancing process.
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2
Q

According to the view that the economy is inherently unstable, what role should the government play?

A

The government should intervene from time to time to offset economic fluctuations, such as shocks, through fiscal and monetary policies.

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3
Q

What is the main belief of those who think the economy is inherently stable regarding government intervention?

A

They believe that government intervention only interferes with the natural balancing process of the economy and can potentially exacerbate existing fluctuations.

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4
Q

What are fiscal policies?

A

Fiscal policies involve government spending and tax policies designed to influence economic conditions, including demand, employment, and inflation.

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5
Q

What are monetary policies?

A

Monetary policies involve the management of the money supply and interest rates by central banks to control inflation, manage employment levels, and stabilize the currency.

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6
Q

Do fluctuations in output and unemployment impose welfare losses on society?

A

Yes, fluctuations in output and unemployment can impose welfare losses on society, affecting economic stability and individual well-being.

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7
Q

What are the two approaches to managing economic fluctuations?

A

The two approaches are:

  1. Active approaches, which involve regular and intentional government intervention.
  2. Passive approaches, which rely on minimal government intervention and let the economy self-correct.
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8
Q

What is the difference between ‘rules’ and ‘discretion’ in government policy?

A

‘Rules’ involve following predefined guidelines for economic policy, while ‘discretion’ allows policymakers to make decisions case-by-case based on current economic conditions.

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9
Q

Can ‘rules’ be ‘active’ or ‘passive’?

A

Yes, ‘rules’ can be either ‘active’ or ‘passive.’ Active rules involve systematic interventions based on economic indicators, while passive rules involve limited or no intervention.

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10
Q

How is ‘discretion’ almost certainly classified in terms of economic policy?

A

Discretion is almost certainly classified as ‘active’ because it involves case-by-case decision-making to address economic fluctuations actively.

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11
Q

Why is the economy likened to a ship rather than a car in the context of active policy?

A

The economy is more like a ship because interventionist policymakers tend to ‘oversteer,’ leading to potential overcorrections and instability.

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12
Q

What did Friedman mean by “lags are long and variable”?

A

Friedman meant that there are significant and unpredictable delays between recognizing economic issues and the effects of policy interventions.

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13
Q

What is the inside lag in economic policy?

A

The inside lag is the delay between a shock hitting the economy and policymakers’ reaction, caused by factors such as information lags or legislative delays.

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14
Q

What is the outside lag in economic policy?

A

The outside lag is the delay between a policy action and its impact on the economy.

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15
Q

How do automatic stabilizers help shorten the inside lag?

A

Automatic stabilizers, like income taxes, consumption taxes, corporation taxes, and unemployment insurance, stimulate or contract the economy automatically without the need for new legislation, thus shortening the inside lag.

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16
Q

Why are forecast errors problematic in economic policy?

A

Forecast errors are problematic because of time lags, particularly the outside lag for monetary policy, leading to potential mistimed interventions.

17
Q

On what must current economic decisions be based, and why is this challenging?

A

Current economic decisions must be based on forecasts of the future, which is challenging due to the inherent difficulty in predicting economic conditions accurately.

18
Q

How accurate are economic forecasts generally?

A

The accuracy of economic forecasts is mixed, with key events often being unpredictable, such as oil price shocks, financial crises, or global pandemics.

19
Q

What is the importance of economic forecasts for policy?

A

Economic forecasts are crucial for both fiscal and monetary policy as they guide decision-making and policy interventions to address future economic conditions.

20
Q

Give examples of unpredictable events that can affect the accuracy of economic forecasts.

A

Examples include oil price shocks, financial crises, and global pandemics.

21
Q

Why is it important to consider expectations in policy analysis?

A

Expectations are crucial because consumption decisions are based partly on expected future income and investment decisions are based partly on expected future profitability.

22
Q

What is a crucial factor in how economic agents make decisions?

A

Expected future government policy is a crucial factor in how economic agents make consumption and investment decisions.

23
Q

What is the Lucas (1976) Critique?

A

The Lucas Critique states that when analyzing the impact of a policy change, it is essential to account for how economic agents will react to that policy change.

24
Q

How do expectations influence consumption decisions?

A

Consumption decisions are influenced by expected future income, meaning individuals may alter their spending based on their income predictions.

25
Q

How do expectations influence investment decisions?

A

Investment decisions are influenced by expected future profitability, meaning businesses may adjust their investments based on their profitability forecasts.

26
Q

Sketch the possibility of a costless disinflation graph

A
27
Q

What could cause the first step towards disinflation?

A

The first step towards disinflation could be caused by contractionary monetary or fiscal policy.

28
Q

Under what conditions might there be no sacrifice in terms of output when reducing inflation?

A

If the policy is fully credible and economic agents have rational expectations, there may be no sacrifice in terms of output.

29
Q

What does it mean for a policy to be ‘fully credible’?

A

A policy is fully credible if economic agents believe that the government will follow through with its plan to reduce inflation.

30
Q

How do rational expectations affect the sacrifice ratio?

A

With rational expectations, economic agents adjust their behavior based on the credible policy, potentially resulting in no loss of output, thus reducing the actual sacrifice ratio.

31
Q

How do conventional calculations of the sacrifice ratio compare to scenarios with rational expectations?

A

Conventional calculations often overstate the sacrifice ratio, assuming higher costs (A → B), whereas rational expectations and credible policy can lead to a lower or even costless adjustment (A → C).