Aven and Renn (2020), Some foundational issues related to risk governance and different types of risks. Flashcards
What is a Simple risk problem?
Definition: Risks where both the outcomes and their probabilities are well understood.
- Clear causal relationships.
- Reliable data and statistics.
- Low ambiguity and low uncertainty.
What is a Complex risk problem?
A problem where the system has many interdependent parts, making it difficult to predict outcomes from individual components.
What strategy is used to manage Complex risks?
Focus on robustness and resilience—systems that can adapt and recover from disruption
What is an Uncertain risk problem?
A risk problem is uncertain if it is difficult to accurately predict the occurrence of events and/or their consequences. The uncertainty can be due to, for example, incomplete or invalid databases, variation, lack of phenomenological understanding and modelling inaccuracies.
High uncertainty is only a problem if there is a potential for serious consequences of the activity.
What is an Ambiguous risk problem?
A risk problem is ambiguous if there are different views on:
I. ‘the relevance, meaning and implications of the basis for the decision making (interpretative ambiguity); or
II. the values to be protected and the priorities to be made (normative ambiguity)’ (Aven and Renn 2010, 13).
Interpretative ambiguity: Disagreement about evidence (e.g. what brain activity means).
**Normative ambiguity: **Disagreement about values and priorities (e.g. should nuclear energy be used?).
What strategy is used to manage Ambiguous risks?
Discursive and participatory approaches involving open dialogue among stakeholders.
What are systemic risks?
Systemic risk, which can be characterised by the following four features: they are (1) global in nature, (2) highly interconnected and intertwined, leading to complex causal structures, (3) nonlinear in their cause–effect relationships and (4) stochastic in their effect structure (Renn 2016).
Systemic risk refers to the risk or probability of breakdowns in an entire system, as opposed to breakdowns in individual parts or components, and is evidenced by co-movements (correlation) among most or all parts.
What strategy is used to manage Uncertain risks?
Cautionary/precautionary approaches, and strategies that emphasize flexibility and robustness
What is risk governance?
Risk governance is the application of governance principles to the identification, assessment, management and communication of risk. Governance refers to the actions, processes, traditions and institutions by which authority is exercised and decisions are taken and implemented. Risk governance includes the totality of actors, rules, conventions, processes, and mechanisms concerned with how relevant risk information is collected, analysed and communicated and management decisions are taken. (SRA 2015a)
What is a disadvantage of risk governance in turbulent situations?
It can be slow and resource-intensive, making it harder to react quickly in urgent or unpredictable scenarios.
How can normative ambiguity challenge risk governance?
Stakeholders may disagree on values and priorities, even if they agree on the scientific assessment, leading to deadlock or policy inaction.
The three main risk problems
Simple: risk-informed (using risk assessments),
Uncertainty: cautionary/precautionary (robustness, resilience)
Differences in values: discursive.
