Armenia Azerbaijan

Question 1

[AMN/AZB] When did the war start and what is the duration?

Answer 1

February 1988 - Present day

Question 2

[AMN/AZB] What are the different stages of the war?

Answer 2

Guerrilla warfare: 1988-1991

First Nagorno-Karabakh War [Armenian victory]: 1992-1994

Political stalemate and cold war: 1994-2020

Arms race and militarisation: 2020

Second Nagorno-Karabakh War [Azerbaijani victory]: 2020

Ongoing border crisis: 2022

Question 3

[AMN/AZB] Summary of the conflict?

Answer 3

• Armenian Ethno-nationalists within Nagorno-Karabakh, an Azerbaijani controlled area, are upset that they’re technically Azerbaijani, so they form a breakaway Armenian state called the ‘Republic of Artsakh’.
• Azerbaijan wasn’t happy with this, and didn’t recognise the Republic of Artsakh.
• Republic of Artsakh respond with terrorism and guerilla attacks, escalates into war. (They are backed by Armenian military).

Armenia wins, Russia brokers a ceasefire, Nagorno Karabakh is now Armenian.

Azerbaijan is upset about this.
- Stumbles across oil. Develops using the EU and Russia, becomes an oil giant.
- Pumps it all into military
- 2020 rolls around, Armenia has not developed as fast, arms race is followed by Azerbaijani blitzkrieg.

During the invasion, Armenia calls for assistance from the CSTO (collective security treaty organisation), specifically from Russia. It’s ignored ‘technically not an Armenian state’ (Azerbaijan is a Russian ally and oil benefactor).

Republic of Artsakh falls, and Nagorno-Karabakh is Azerbaijani again.

Russia invades Ukraine in 2022

Azerbaijan takes this opportunity. They want Armenian territory as vengeance for terrorism during ceasefire + Artsakh situation. September 2022, Azerbaijan attacks positions near 4 Armenian cities. CTSO is useless, Armenia has no options other than getting rolled.

Question 4

[AMN/AZB] What are the contributing factors that lead to Azerbaijani development?

Answer 4

• Collapse of soviet union removes taint of communism, allows western oil companies to appear and take advantage of the oil and natural gas reservoirs in the Caspian Sea
• Landlocked Caspian Sea means that more expenses in infrastructure from the MNC’s are necessitated. Leads to faster development.
• Strategic alliances w Turkey and Russia + trade deals with EU made possible due to discovery of natural gas.
• Interesting that this was all possible despite the fact that Azerbaijan is a problematic ally - in the midst of a 50 year long conflict. Shows power of natural gas reserves.
• With boycott of Russian oil, power of Azerbaijan only grows, emboldening them.

Question 5

[AMN/AZB] How did Azerbaijani development contribute to conflict?

Answer 5

• Provides military funding
• Provides disincentive for the activation of the CSTO, in that Azerbaijan is a major supplier of oil and gas to members of the organisation
• In the process of developing, Azerbaijan was granted opportunities to make allies, and to exclude Armenia. Trans Adriatic Pipeline goes from Azerbaijan to Europe. Most direct passage is through Armenia, pipeline goes through Georgia instead. Isolates Armenia, easier target.
• Azerbaijan emboldened by Russian oil embargo

Question 6

[AMN/AZB] How does this case study demonstrate flaws of collective security?

Answer 6

• Armenia unable to call on CSTO, Russia entirely unhelpful. Collective security occasionally unreliable.
• Both Azerbaijan and Armenia are in NATO. In the midst of an unresolved 50 year conflict. Over the past year, Armenia has been getting massacred, NATO has not been able to stop it.

Question 7

[AMN/AZB] How was white house policy shaped by developmental and economic factors?

Answer 7

• US is providing military aid to both countries
• It is providing significantly more financial aid to Azerbaijan, (the aggressor). $4.2 to 100 million. (2380% more)
• Although the aid is ‘primarily offered in the context of U.S. policy to increase pressure on Iran’ and ‘focuses on Azerbaijan’s Iranian border’.
• US has also provided humanitarian aid to Artsakh ($36 million), damaging reputation as a neutral mediator (Azerbaijan criticised it for ‘legitimising the illegal regime’).
• Economic factors, balancing financial interests (oil) with socioeconomics of status as a humanitarian protector. Supports Azerbaijan militarily while assisting Armenia in a humanitarian context. Best of both worlds.