Arab Uprisings

Question 1

Barany

Answer 1

no institution matters more to a state’s survival than its military

Question 2

Gallala-Arndt

Answer 2

reforms have to keep stability in the long run

Question 3

Tetlock

Answer 3

FPA

Question 4

Maswood

Answer 4

military unsuccessful in Egypt

Question 5

Aswar

Answer 5

learnt from past reforms

Question 6

Amar

Answer 6

SA was key in the saving of Baharain

Question 7

Breyner

Answer 7

authoritarian regimes adapted to changes

Question 8

Introduction why did arab spring fail

Answer 8

•	Arab Spring 
o	January 2011 Bauazizi set himself on fire
o	Symbol of the Arab society 
	Strived to survive but with no success 
•	High unemployment 
•	High prices 
•	Government would confiscate his wares
•	Harassment 
o	Sparked uprisings in the region 
	Tunisia
	Egypt 
	Libya 
	Yemen 
	Syria 
	Bahrain 
o	Regime change 
	Democracy 
	Freedom 
	Respect for human rights 	
•	Scholars believe that they failed 
•	Theories: 
o	Neorealism  
o	Foreign Policy analysis (Scott Muller)
	Decision-making models 
	Rational choice 
•	Aid in the explanation of why the Arab Spring failed 
•	Why? 
o	the Arab springs failed because authoritarian regimes had the loyalty of the military
	Morocco
o	Another reason that lead to the failure of the Arab spring is the government implemented reforms that successfully appeased the protestors
	Jordan 
o	Arab spring failed because of interference of other states 
	Baharain

Question 9

point 1

Answer 9

the Arab springs failed because of the loyalty of the military to the regime
o Resilience arises from the support of the military
 leaders the military strength to remain in power as were able to silence the uprisings
• Barany: No institution matters more to a state’s survival than its military
o Neorealism: military power and military capabilities are key to ensure national security
 Authoritarianism wouldn’t have been able to stay in power without military power

Question 10

point 2

Answer 10

• Another reason that lead to the failure of the Arab spring is that government implemented reforms that successfully appeased protestors while maintaining their powers
protestors didn’t have a clear agenda
o Much of their protests called for a very broad and unclear change
 Democracy
 Freedom
 Respect for human rights
o Contributed to the failure of the Arab spring as Governments didn’t have to fight much to appease protestors
 Small policy changes and allowances were enough to appease the Arab spring
• small policies were just facades to maintain the authoritarian power
o Brynen: authoritarian regimes adapted to changes raised from the Arab Spring would lead to the persistence of such regimes
o They adapted by bringing some constitutional changes
 Although such changes didn’t change the structure of power within a country
• Were enough
o Showing how the no clear agenda lead to the failure of the arab spring

Question 11

point 3

Answer 11

the Arab spring failed because of interference of other states
o Cooperation between governments allowed for states to remain in power
 When the uprisings were too strong for the military to silence them government came to salvage the ally government
• This pushed states such as the gulf states to intervene and repress the uprisings making them a failure

Question 12

example military

Answer 12

Crushed uprisings such as in Morocco
o State violence
 Police calls for order
 However, Increase abuses
• Increase mobilisation fir the uprisings
o Strategy
 Didn’t antagonise the whole of the population
• Public show of violence was minimal
• Co-optation of key figures
 Pro-palace counter protests
 April 28 there was a terrorist attack that spread shock and fear among protestors

Question 13

example intervention

Answer 13

o Bahrain
 Saudi Arabia aided Bahrain
• Saudi led intervention in Bahrain to help the Al-Khalifa ruling family (March 2011) to remain in power on March 14
o one thousand Saudi army and national guard troops
o backed up the police and cleared the streets
 as mentioned by Amar in fact without the help of intervention the Bahrain royal family wouldn’t have remained in power

Question 14

example reforms

Answer 14

Jordan the kingd Abdullah II
o Jordanian Royal Committee of Constitutional Review
 were submitted for the approval of the legislature. They were passed by both houses of Parliament in late September 2011.
 Some limitations were imposed on the government in favour of Parliament. For instance, the ability to issue temporary laws during parliamentary holidays has been reduced. Furthermore, the ability of the government to dissolve Parliament without resigning itself has also been reduced
• the king’s powers were kept intact.
• Limited constitutional reforms
o Doesn’t touch core of monarchical power
o No referendum and no path to constitutional monarchy

Question 15

theoretical debate miltary

Answer 15

neorealism: military most important capability for national security
FPA: leader scholars such as tetlock believe that decision makers should make a decision based on what maximises their subjective expected utility
 In the sense that they choose the option that gives them what they most value
• In this case was remaining in power
o Military strength would have given it as it would have silent uprisings
difference: neorealism assumes that the military is dependent on the government, it isn’t eg Egypt (Maswood)

Question 16

theoretical debate reform

Answer 16

rational decision-making model of FPA
o Advocates of the rational decision making model claim that policy makers should learn from history and draw some propositions form the past and apply such propositions
 As mentioned by Aswar Kind Abdullah responded in way that Jordanians were familiar with: dismissing the PM, calling for a national dialogue and forming a committee to consider constitutional reform
• Was the same approach that successfully silenced uprisings in
o 1989 and 2002
• However, neorealism which believes that states are rational actors and utility maximisers
o By creating constitutional reforms that created a façade of change they appeased the masses but still remained in power
• NEVERTHELESS, as mentioned by Gallala-Arndt in order for the masses to remain silent it was necessary for these reforms to keep the stability in the long run
o So that people can again trust state institutions and the pledge of democratisation.
 Jordanian history only way to know that keep stability in the long-run
• FPA over neorealism
o Not having a clear agenda makes it easier for government to appease the massess

Question 17

theoretical debate intervention

Answer 17

why they intervene:
• The reason for which gulf states intervened can be explain both through neorealism and through FPA
o As a basic ideal it can be argued that states that weren’t directly affected by the uprisings were fearing both
 the spread of insurgencies
 Hostile governments would be put into power if the uprisings succeeded
• Can be established that it was in the states self-interest to intervene and quiet the uprisings
• Neorealist perspective this was because of national security
• Form a FPA because leaders are good estimators of probability
o They see a high change of hostile government
 They efficiently responded to such a threat
• Nevertheless a strong self-interest is needed to spend so much military power on silencing another’s issue