Anticipating Risks in Science and Engineering: Lecture quiz (14/15 ändra gärna)) Flashcards
Match each qualitative risk with the correct definitions of risk.
A) Poisoning from contaminated water is a substantial risk of unregulated well drilling.
B) Playing the world cup final is risky - it may either make you a satisfied winner or bitter loser.
C) Building cheap and uninspiring apartment blocks that may make people feel depressed poses a risk.
1) The spread of events
2) An unwanted event
3) The cause of an unwanted event
A - 2
B - 1
C - 3
Match each quantitative risk with the correct definition of risk. (A-C with 1-2)
A) The risk of getting cancer from smoking is twice as big as the risk of getting cancer from spending too much time at the solarium
B) Either no one dies in the treatment group or everyone does, because they are all subjected to the same intervention.
C) A professional boxing career carries many risks: you might break one or more of your ribs, but you might also get traumatic brain injuries.
1) The severity of an unwanted event
2) The probability of an unwanted event
A - 2
B - 1
C - 1
Which of the following examples refer to subjective probabilities? Mark all correct options.
A) An example of a subjective probability assessment is when I calculate the probability that a fair (six-sided) dice will yield the value “three” when I throw it one time.
B) The subjective probability of an event E can be assessed by considering what kind of bets an individual agent would be willing to participate in.
C) When someone says, since the opposing team’s key player is missing we will probably win today, it marks a subjective probability assessment.
D) Subjective probability is the frequency with which event E occurs.
B) The subjective probability of an event E can be assessed by considering what kind of bets an individual agent would be willing to participate in.
C) When someone says, since the opposing team’s key player is missing we will probably win today, it marks a subjective probability assessment.
Which of the following claims are correct regarding decision-making under certainty/uncertainty? Mark all correct options.
A) A necessary requirement for something to be a decision-making under risk is that the probability of each possible outcome is known.
B) Deep uncertainty is when one lacks knowledge about what all possible outcomes are.
C) In a decision under certainty there is a small – practically non-existent – risk that the believed outcome does not occur.
D) If we know the probabilities of some possible outcomes, but lack knowledge about what all possible outcomes are, we are talking about decision-making under ignorance.
A) A necessary requirement for something to be a decision-making under risk is that the probability of each possible outcome is known.
B) Deep uncertainty is when one lacks knowledge about what all possible outcomes are.
Which of the following claims are true about the notion of the statistical expected value of an uncertain event? Mark all correct claims.
A) According to this notion, the actual risk is the event that will occur (even though we are uncertain what it might be).
B) To quantify the statistical expected values of actions involving heterogeneous outcomes never leads to issues of comparability.
C) The notion of the statistical expected value combines different quantitative notions of risks in order to give each random variable a numerical value that is supposed to represent the probability-weighted average of all its possible values.
D) Depending on the context, the aim is to choose the action with the lowest expected value or the action with the highest expected value, when applying this notion of risk.
C) The notion of the statistical expected value combines different quantitative notions of risks in order to give each random variable a numerical value that is supposed to represent the probability-weighted average of all its possible values.
D) Depending on the context, the aim is to choose the action with the lowest expected value or the action with the highest expected value, when applying this notion of risk.
What is the difference between risk assessment and risk management? Mark all correct options.
A) Risk assessment is typically free from values, whereas risk management is typically laden with values.
B) Risk management is arguably the policy maker’s area of expertise, whereas risk assessment is arguably the scientist’s area of expertise.
C) Political institutions typically should deal with risk management, and not with risk assessment.
D) Risk assessment concerns the identification and evidential justification of models of the risks, whereas risk management concerns the evaluation of possible implications from the available actions and their risks.
A) Risk assessment is typically free from values, whereas risk management is typically laden with values.
B) Risk management is arguably the policy maker’s area of expertise, whereas risk assessment is arguably the scientist’s area of expertise.
C) Political institutions typically should deal with risk management, and not with risk assessment.
D) Risk assessment concerns the identification and evidential justification of models of the risks, whereas risk management concerns the evaluation of possible implications from the available actions and their risks.
Consider a case where the statistical expected values between two or more actions are the same. What problem(s) does such a case present? Mark all correct options.
A) Such cases show that it’s not necessary to define ‘risk’ as ‘statistical expected value’.
B) In such a case, the notion of the statistical expected value can’t by itself guide one’s decision.
C) Such a case does not really present a problem because the statistical expected values of two risks can never be the same value.
D) Such cases show that it’s not sufficient to define ‘risk’ as ‘statistical expected value’.
B) In such a case, the notion of the statistical expected value can’t by itself guide one’s decision.
D) Such cases show that it’s not sufficient to define ‘risk’ as ‘statistical expected value’.
What does the St. Petersburg paradox show? That is, what conclusions could be drawn from the St. Petersburg paradox? Mark all correct options. (Fel på denna, ändra gärna)
A) The paradox shows that, depending on what its being quantified, people’s tendency to be risk averse/risk-loving relative to what is valued ought to be accounted for.
B) The paradox shows that the expected-value model of risk does not account for the possibility that the utility of something valuable (e.g. money) is diminishing in proportion to its magnitude.
C) The paradox shows that the expected value of risky actions is sometimes different from what the expected value model says.
D) The paradox shows that, sometimes, the expected-value model is unusable without incorporating subjective evaluations of risk. In other words, the model’s external validity is debatable.
B) The paradox shows that the expected-value model of risk does not account for the possibility that the utility of something valuable (e.g. money) is diminishing in proportion to its magnitude.
D) The paradox shows that, sometimes, the expected-value model is unusable without incorporating subjective evaluations of risk. In other words, the model’s external validity is debatable.
Should psychological properties that clearly influence subjective evaluations be included in risk evaluation? Mark the correct option.
A) Yes, such properties need to be taken into account in risk evaluations.
B) No, such properties are irrelevant for objective risk evaluations.
C) Experts currently disagree on how to answer this question.
C) Experts currently disagree on how to answer this question.
What are some unwanted consequences if one were to apply the precautionary principle too strictly and without taking context-specific considerations into account? Mark all correct options.
A) It could risk creating too strict thresholds that in the end create paralysis among decision makers and proposing parties.
B) It could risk neglecting important projects that indeed are backed up by evidence pointing to the absence of a risk or its relatively low probability, by demanding “proofs”.
C) It would yield the opportunity for some decisions maker(s) to negate projects based on insufficient evidence, while the real reason is that the projects aren’t in line with the respective decision maker(s)’ personal interests.
A) It could risk creating too strict thresholds that in the end create paralysis among decision makers and proposing parties.
B) It could risk neglecting important projects that indeed are backed up by evidence pointing to the absence of a risk or its relatively low probability, by demanding “proofs”.
C) It would yield the opportunity for some decisions maker(s) to negate projects based on insufficient evidence, while the real reason is that the projects aren’t in line with the respective decision maker(s)’ personal interests.
Why might one want to model risks using qualitative models rather than quantitative models? Mark all correct options.
A) From an epistemic viewpoint, the accuracy of quantitative models is sometimes too questionable to guide important decisions.
B) From a pragmatic viewpoint, we sometimes lack resources or time to model some risks quantitatively.
C) From a public viewpoint, we sometimes want as many people as possible to grasp a certain model of a risk.
D) From an ethical viewpoint, we might want to assess the severity and probability of the possible outcomes of some decision.
A) From an epistemic viewpoint, the accuracy of quantitative models is sometimes too questionable to guide important decisions.
B) From a pragmatic viewpoint, we sometimes lack resources or time to model some risks quantitatively.
C) From a public viewpoint, we sometimes want as many people as possible to grasp a certain model of a risk.
Match each description with its corresponding decision principle. (A-C with 1-3)
A) Due to a lack of research, company C decides that they will weigh all the possible outcomes of action A equally when calculating A’s expected value.
B) When company C proposes to build a new power plant next to a lake, the government asserts that they will only allow this construction if C can provide conclusive evidence that the plant will not contaminate the lake.
C) During the heated moments of the cold war, nuclear devastation was so close that each action taken by the Americans and the Russians was based on the goal that it would not lead to a nuclear attack.
1) MaxiMin
2) Principle of insufficient reason
3) Precautionary principle
A - 2
B - 3
C - 1
Match the possible approaches that a utilitarian could utilize when dealing with risk management. (A-C with 1-3)
A) Given that enough information is available and because one, arguably, would want to have some idea of an action’s utility before one possibly performs the action, an idea could be to extract an action’s utility via the statistical-expected-value model.
B) Since utilitarianism exclusively values the utility (consequences) of actions, one could interpret an uncertain action’s utility to be the utility of the outcome that happens, once the action is performed. This way, we get a clear criterion for deciding whether an action was right or wrong, but it can only be done once the action has been taken.
C) A form of utilitarianism is rule utilitarianism, i.e. the right action is the action that maximizes utility in accordance with some pre-determined normative rules. Utilitarianism could apply such rules to guide risk management.
1) The expected utility approach
2) Actualism
3) None of the explicit approaches
A - 1
B - 2
C- 3
What is the point of Nozick’s critique, i.e. what does his critique show? Mark all correct options.
A) Nozick’s critique shows that the consequences of exposing someone to uncertain risks are worse than exposing them to certain outcomes (even if such outcomes are negative).
B) Nozick’s critique targets normative frameworks whose underlying principles rest on the view that violating someone’s right(s) is unconditionally morally wrong. He shows that such frameworks get into trouble when actions have to be chosen under risk, ignorance, and deep uncertainty.
C) Nozick’s critique shows that, in risk management, a normative framework must take into account the managing person(s)’ virtues. In other words, is the managing person(s) acting with a “good heart”?
B) Nozick’s critique targets normative frameworks whose underlying principles rest on the view that violating someone’s right(s) is unconditionally morally wrong. He shows that such frameworks get into trouble when actions have to be chosen under risk, ignorance, and deep uncertainty.
Match the possible approaches that a deontologist could utilize when dealing with risk management.
A) Intuitively, there is a difference when, say, action A1 is taken with the intention to create outcome O1 while A2 is taken without the intention to create O2 (even though O1 and O2 are both negative outcomes). A deontologist could utilize this distinction of a subject’s intention(s) to distinguish between morally permissible actions and morally forbidden actions.
B) The deontologist could make sure that when managing risks, she manages these risks with great care and attention to the reason(s) that drives her management – are there any of her character traits that seem to guide her to unwarranted decisions?
C) Arguably, one’s fate is something one choses for oneself. Therefore, if one chooses to participate/expose oneself in a situation where some risk of harm is present, the deontologist can argue that someone creating this risk is not acting wrong.
1) The “voluntary approach” is an available approach for deontology
2) The “intention approach” is an available approach for deontology
3) Not an available approach for deontology
A - 2
B - 3
C - 1
