Anthropocene

Question 1

What is the Anthropocene?

Answer 1

• New division of geological time during which humans became a major geological force.
• 11,700 years ago we entered a relatively stable climate period, allowing human development.
• 5000-7000 ya, we experienced a massive expansion in agriculture
• ~3000 ya, we experienced an expansion in mining. Human mining activities today move more soil than all the world’s rivers combined
• Mid-twentieth century saw the industrial revolution, the final push to us being able to harness earth’s resources. So much so that we are changing the climate
• If earths entire history was 24h, we came in at 15min to midnight.

Question 2

What are some of the effects of the anthropocene?

Answer 2

• Warmed the planet
• Raised sea levels
• Eroded the ozone layer
• Acidified the oceans
• Increased the rate of extinction

Question 3

How would aliens be able to tell that we once existed?

Answer 3

• Plastic residues
• Fly ash
• Radionuclides
• Metals
• Pesticides
• Reactive nitrogen

Question 4

How is Europe affected?

Answer 4

• Although some areas are improving (Central Europe), in general we are getting worse
• Highest risk are biochemical flows (phosphorus & nitrogen) and biosphere integrity (genetic diversity)

Question 5

What are the burden of ‘planetary illness’

Answer 5

• It took us ~200,000 years to get to 1st bn of humans
• Now were adding a new bn people every 11-13 years
• ~20kg fish and ~40kg meat are consumed per capita
• ~320kg grains @ 1% soil loss pa
• On average, every meal loses 10kg of soil
• 35 ‘football fields’ of forest lost EVERY minute
• We are officially in the 6th mass extinction
o 58% decline in vertebrate abundance
o Losing 8 species an hour

Question 6

Why if we push our planet are we all getting healthier?

Answer 6

• Technology is key driver of improvements in health along with development in medical sciences.
• Many humans out of touch with our ‘environment’. Profit driven individuals will put money above social & environmental well-being.

Question 7

What are some of the biggest risks in terms of impact / WEF 2015

Answer 7

• Water crisis
• Infectious diseases
• Weapons of mass destruction
• Interstate conflict
• Failure of climate-change adaptation
• Fiscal crises
• Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
• Critical information infrastructure break-down

Question 8

But what are the most likely scenarios?

Answer 8

• War
• Extreme weather evens
• Etc.
In general, globally climate change is not being recognised as one of the most dangerous issues we face as a human society.

Question 9

Climate change impacts and adaptation – glossary

Answer 9

• UNFCCC Article 1: ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in additional to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
• Impact of CC was mentioned in English literature since 1987 and is one of the more talked about topics, where as the adaptation part and the costs associated with it has only in the last 15 years experienced interest.

Question 10

Impacts glossary: Effects on natural and human systems

Answer 10

o The effect on natural and human systems of extreme weather and climate events and of climate change
o Effects on lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, economies, societies, cultures, services and infrastructure
o Physical impacts: subset of climate change impacts on geophysical systems, including floods, droughts and sea level rise

Question 11

Impact glossary: Hazard

Answer 11

o The potential occurrence of an event of trend or impact that may
♣ Cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts
♣ Damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provisions, ecosystems and environmental resources.

Question 12

Impact glossary: Exposure

Answer 12

o The presence of something (e.g. people, species, environmental functions, economic, social or cultural assets) in places and settings that could be adversely affected.

Question 13

Impact glossary: Vulnerability

Answer 13

o The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected
♣ Sensitivity or susceptibility to harm
♣ Lack of capacity to cope and adapt.

Question 14

Impact glossary: Risk

Answer 14

o The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain recognising the diversity of values
♣ Often represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events of trends occur
♣ Results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure and hazard

Question 15

Impact glossary: Adaptation

Answer 15

o Process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects
♣ Seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities
♣ May facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effect
o Incremental adaptation: Adaptation actions where the central aim is to maintain the essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale
o Transformational adaptation: Adaptation that changes the fundamental attributes of a human or natural system.

Question 16

Impact glossary: Resilience

Answer 16

o Capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event, trend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure, whilst also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation.

Question 17

Impact glossary: Evidence and communication

Answer 17

o defined, calibrated language that communicates the strength of scientific understanding, including uncertainties and areas or disagreement.
o Each finding is supported by a traceable account of the evaluation of evidence and agreement

Question 18

Adaptation development over the past few years?

Answer 18

• Adaptation has emerged as a central area in climate change research, in country-level planning and in implementation of climate change strategies (high confidence).
• The body of literature, including government and private sector reports, shows an increased focus on adaptation opportunities and the interrelations between adaptation, mitigation and alternative sustainable pathways.
• The literature shows an emergence of studies on transformative processes that take advantage of synergies between adaptation planning, development strategies, social protection and disaster risk reduction & management.

Whilst the majority of people in developed nations have heard of the term of climate change, there is a lot less awareness of the risks of climate change compared to developing nations.

Question 19

Evidence of climate change

Answer 19

• Large growth in evidence, some sectors more than others
• Impacts caused by deviations from historical conditions
• Still limited robust attribution studies and meta-analyses linking biological and physical responses to anthropogenic climate change
• New and stronger evidence, especially for natural systems
• Substantial new evidence for human systems, links often with socio-economic factors
• Greater geographic spread of evidence
• Cascading impacts now better described
• Detection and attribution = assessing the causual relationship between one or more drivers and a responding system
• Earth system separated into three components
o Climate
o Natural
o Human
• Differentiate between climate change impacts (easier) and anthropogenic climate change impacts (more difficult)

Question 20

Detection and attribution methods

Answer 20

• Detection of impacts = evidence for whether a system is changing beyond a specific baseline that characterises its behaviour in the absence of climate change.
• Attribution = magnitude of contribution of climate change to a change in a system
• Quantitative tools for synthesis assessment
o Associative pattern analyses
o Regression analyses
• Common in ecology
o Allows for hypothesis testing
o Allows uncertainty assessment
• Challenges relate to
o Observations
o Process understanding
• Need high quality, long-term data
• Processes can be non-linear (e.g. thresholds), local and non-local (both space and time)
• Bases on ‘synthesis of findings in the scientific literature’
o Find and correct potential biases

Question 21

How are Freshwater Resources affected

Answer 21

• Changing precipitation or melting snow & ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality (medium confidence)
o Glaciers shrinking almost worldwide (high confidence), affecting runoff and water resources downstream (medium confidence)
o Permafrost warming and thawing in high-latitude regions and in high-elevation regions (high confidence)
o No evidence that surface water and groundwater drought frequency has changed over the last few decades, although impacts of drought have increased mostly due to increased water demand.

Question 22

How are terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems affected?

Answer 22

• shifting in geographic ranges, activities and altered abundance (high c)
• Increased tree mortality
• Increases in the frequency or intensity of ecosystems disturbances such as droughts, wind storms, wild fires and pest outbreaks (medium c)
• Contributed to the extinction of some species (medium c)
• Most recent observed terrestrial species extinctions have not been attributed to climate change (high c)

Question 23

How are coastal and low lying systems affected?

Answer 23

• Sensitive to seal level, ocean temperature and ocean acidification (very high c)
• Coral bleaching and species range shifts due to change in ocean temperature.
• Impacts of climate change are difficult to identify given other human-related drivers (e.g. land use change, coastal development, pollution, etc.)

Question 24

Impact on Marine systems

Answer 24

• Shifts in the abundance, geographic distribution, migration patterns and timing of seasonal activities of marine species (very high c)
• Reduction in maximum body sizes (medium c)
• Changing interactions between species, including competition and predator-prey dynamics (high c)
• Altered ecosystem composition (high c)
• Species replacement, bleaching and decreased coral cover causing habitat loss
• Responses to ocean acidification less clear, not yet outside natural variability, influenced by other factors
• Dead zones are increasing in number and size

Question 25

Impact on food security & food production systems

Answer 25

• Reduced crop yields more common than increases; extreme daytime temperatures are influential (high c)
• Wheat and maize yields reduced, less so for soy and rice (medium c)
• Production aspects of food security rather than access most important
• Rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes (medium c)
• Co2 has stimulatory effects on crop yields in most cases, and elevated tropospheric ozone has damaging effects.

Question 26

Impact on urban systems

Answer 26

• High proportion of the population and economic activities at risk are in urban areas
• Rapid urbanisation and growth of large cities creates highly vulnerable urban communities, often living in informal settlements, exposed to extreme weather (medium c.)
• Urban areas often exacerbate climate changes, including extreme weather events (heat island effect)

Question 27

Impact on economic sector

Answer 27

• Economic losses due to extreme weather events have increased globally (low c in attribution to climate change)
• Flooding can have major economic costs (robust evidence, high agreement)
• Socioeconomic losses from flooding have increased, mainly due to greater exposure and vulnerability (high c)
• Affected insurance systems (robust evidence, high agreement)
• Global economic impacts are difficult to estimate
• Not all key economic sectors and services have been subject to detailed research

Question 28

Impact on human health

Answer 28

• Health burden from climate change is relatively small compared with effects of other stressors and is not well quantified
• Increased heat related mortality and decreased cold-related (medium c)
• Local changes in temperature and rainfall have altered the distribution of some waterborne illnesses and disease vectors (medium c)
• The health of human populations is sensitive to shifts in weather patterns and other aspects of climate change (very high c)
• Extreme weather (heat waves, drought, floods, cyclones, fires), ecosystems (food, water, infrastructure) and other stressors (poverty, starvation, migration and war)

Question 29

Impact on human safety

Answer 29

• Vulnerability reduction and adaptation actions highest in regions with governance difficulties (high c)
• Violent conflict increases vulnerability to climate change (medium c)
• Large-scale violent conflict harms assets that facilitate adaptation, including infrastructure, institutions, natural resources, social capital and livelihood opportunities

Question 30

Impact on livelihood and poverty

Answer 30

• Exacerbate other stressors, negative outcomes for livelihoods, especially for the poor (high c)
• Impacts on livelihood, reductions in crop yields, destruction of homes
• Increased food prices and food insecurity
• Livelihoods of indigenous people in the artic altered through impacts on food security and traditional and cultural values (medium c)
• Positive effects include diversification of social networks and of agricultural practises

Question 31

Article 2 – UNFCCC Objectives

Answer 31

• Stabilisation of GHG’s to prevent us interfering with climate system (below 2 and pursue 1.5 above pre-industrial levels
• Should be done within time-frame to allow ecosystems to adapt and improves our resilience
• Ensure that food production is not threatened
• Encourage the flow of finance towards low emissions technologies to enable economic development

Question 32

Is it possible to attribute a single event, like disease outbreak or the extinction of a species, to climate change?

Answer 32

• Possible to detect trends in frequency (or characteristics) in weather events like heatwaves
• So yes, it is possible, but other drivers of change, such as policy decisions, etc., make this difficult
• Random chance can always be a factor making it almost impossible to relate one event to CC.

Question 33

Definition of ‘key’ (risk, vulnerability and impacts)

Answer 33

• A vulnerability, risk or impact relevant to the definition and elaboration of ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference …. With the climate system’
• Meriting attention by policymakers
• Key risks = potentially severe adverse consequences due to high hazard or high vulnerability of societies and systems exposed, or both. Key risk indicators known as KRI (measure of how risky an activity is).
• Emergent risk = a risk that arises from the interaction of phenomena in a complex system.
• Key vulnerability = if they have potential to combine with hazardous events r trends to result in key risks
• Key impacts = severe consequences for humans and social-ecological systems

Question 34

Example of key risks: sealevel rise

Answer 34

• Key vulnerabilities: high exposure of people, economic activity and infrastructure in low-lying coastal zones, small island developing states (SIDS) and other small islands.
• Key vulnerabilities: Urban population unprotected due to substandard housing and inadequate insurance. Marginalised rural population with multidimensional poverty and limited alternative livelihoods
• Key vulnerabilities: Insufficient government attention to disaster risk reduction
• Key Risk: death, injury and disruption of food supplies and drinking water
• Loss of common pool resources, sense of place and identity, especially among indigenous populations in rural coastal zones.

Question 35

Example of key risks: Extreme precipitation and inland flooding

Answer 35

• Key vulnerability: Large number of people exposed in urban areas to flood events (particularly low income). Outdated infrastructure with limited ability to cope.
• Key risks: death, injury especially among poor population (young & elderly).

Question 36

Example of key risks: Novel hazards yielding systemic risk

Answer 36

• Key vulnerability: infrastructure which never had to deal with these hazards.
• Key risks: Failure of systems couples to electric power systems (drainage, pumps) and emergency services unable to cope with extreme events.

Question 37

Example of key risks: Increased frequency and intensity of extreme heat, urban heat island

Answer 37

• Key vulnerability: Increasing vulnerable populations (getting older, young children and chronic health problems) and the services that are unable to react.
• Key risks: increased mortality rates during extreme heat

Question 38

Example of key risk: Warming, drought and precipitation variability

Answer 38

• Key vulnerability: Poorer populations more susceptible to food insecurity; particularly farmers who are net food buyers and people in low-income, agriculturally dependent economies that are net food imported. Limited ability to cope among elderly.
• Key risks: Risk of harm or loss of life due to reversal of progress in reducing malnutrition
• Emergent risks: population growth, reduced productivity, biofuel crop cultivation, and food prices with persistent inequality and ongoing food insecurity.

Question 39

Example of key risks: Drought

Answer 39

• Key vulnerability: Inadequate water services, irregular supplies, lack of capacity and resilience in water management. Farmers in drought stricken areas without access to water for irrigation will struggle, due to poor land use policy etc.
• Key risks: Severe harm and economic impact due to insufficient water supply. Lots of agricultural productivity and income. Risk of food insecurity
• Emergent risks: ground water depletion (Punjab), social unrest, rural outmigration, tipping points in rain-fed farming systems etc.

Question 40

Example of key risks: Rising ocean temperatures, ocean acidification and loss of artic sea ice

Answer 40

• Key vulnerability: Warm water coral reefs and respective ecosystems services for coastal communities at risk. Polar regions also at risk.
• Key risks: loss of coral cover, artic species loss, Mixing of ecosystems type and increased dominance of invasive species. One other factor could be the stopping of the Gulf stream!
• Emergent risks: Interaction of stressors such as acidification and warming on calcareous organisms enhancing risk.

Question 41

Example of key risks: Rising and temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, extreme heat

Answer 41

• Key vulnerabilities: Human systems, agro-ecosystems and natural ecosystems at risk to pests, diseases, fire, landslides, erosion, flooding, avalanche, water quality, etc. Risk to food insecurity due to bioenergy demands and loss of economic activity in tourism, heritage, values and biodiversity.
• Key risks: Reduction of biodiversity and losses of important ecosystem services. Increasing dominance of invasive species etc.
• Emergent risks: Interaction of social-ecological systems with loss of ecosystem services upon which they depend.

Question 42

Reasons for concern (RFC)

Answer 42

•	Helps define what level of climate change is dangerous from a certain perspective
•	Relationships between global mean temperature increases and risks to:
o	Unique and threatened systems
o	Extreme weather events
o	Distribution of impacts
o	Global aggregate impacts
o	Large scale singular events
•	More warming = more risk

Question 43

High concern key risks

Answer 43

• Low lying, coastal, small island developing states
o Storm surges, flooding sea level rise
• Large urban populations
o Inland flooding
• Systemic risk due to extreme weather
o Infrastructure breakdown and critical services
• Extreme heat
o Urban populations, outdoor workers
• Food insecurity, breakdown of food systems
o Warming, drought, flooding, precipitation, extremes
• Rural livelihoods and income
o Drinking and irrigation water, reduced productivity
• Loss of marine and coastal ecosystems
o Biodiversity, livelihoods, esp. fishing in tropic, artic
• Terrestrial and inland water ecosystems
o Biodiversity, livelihoods

Question 44

Integrated science of climate change biodiversity assessment

Answer 44

•	Empirical and observational methods:
o	Paleoecological records
o	Direct observations
o	Climate-envelope models
•	Mechanistic
o	Ecophysiological models
o	Experimental manipulations
o	Populations models

Question 45

Organisms to ecosystems

Answer 45

•	Organisms
o	Genetic diversity
o	Activity rates
o	Body size and shape
•	Populations
o	Abundance
o	Migration
o	Phenology
•	Species
o	Distribution
o	Habitat quantity / quality
o	Extinction
•	Communities
o	Biomass
o	Net primary productivity (NPP)
o	Ecosystem / assemblages
o	Species interactions

Question 46

Organisms: Evolution / Physiology / Morphology

Answer 46

•	Resistance to thermal extremes
•	Genetic basis of phenology 
o	Migration
o	Diapause
•	Thermal niche adjustment
•	Hybridisation
•	Plasticity in physiological traits
•	Temperature dependent sex determination
•	Metabolic cost of warming
o	Oxygen demand vs oxygen content
•	Calcification and acidification
•	Size reduction / increases
Colour changes

Question 47

Populations: Phenology / Abundance / population dynamics

Answer 47

• Timing of life-history processes
o Budding, flowering
o Spawning, hatching, fledging, hibernation
o 2.3-5.1 days/decade spring advance
o extended growing period for some plants
o migration timing
• 80% of populations exhibiting abundance responses
• Temperature spikes impacting ecosystems engineers
• Loss of sea ice linked to both decreases and increases
• Survival impacts
• Warming favours some disease vectors.

Question 48

Species: Distribution / Extinction

Answer 48

• Tracking optimal habitat / niche
o Cold limit edge moving at 19.6km/decade (marine faster than terrestrial)
o Some species unable to keep up (e.g. riverine fish)
• Tropicalisation / borealisation
• Range expansions and contradictions
• Elevational changes
• Moving up mountains, moving down the water column
• Often complex responses (e.g. combination of temperature and moisture)
• Not leading cause of extinction at present. But contributing to:
o Local extinctions
o Population declines
o Climatic oscillation impacts
• Projected to be a major driver in the 21st century
• Wide estimates of climate change induced extinction (0-54% of species)

Question 49

Key drivers for species loss or generally affected are:

Answer 49

1. Overexploitation
   a. Logging
   b. Hunting
   c. Fishing
2. Agricultural activity
   a. Crop farming (monocultures)
   b. Livestock farming
   c. Timber plantations
3. Urban Development
   a. Housing
   b. Tourism
   c. Industrial
   There are more factors such as invasive species, pollution or system modifications (dams), but all of these have a bigger impact at the moment compared to climate change.

Question 50

Community: Interactions / Productivity

Answer 50

•	Disrupted species interactions
•	Novel biotic interactions
•	Ecosystem invasion
•	Increased rate of species turnover
•	Competition between species
•	Trophic disruptions
o	Shifting herbivory rates and overgrazing
•	Phenological mismatches
o	Insects + food plants / predator + prey
•	Changes in productivity
o	Increases and decreases observed
•	Eutophication and algal blooms
•	6% increase in NPP 1982-1999
o	but highly varied

Question 51

Ecosystems impacts?

Answer 51

State Shifts
•	Ecosystems accumulating stress
•	Compromised ecological processes
•	Direct and interactive impacts
•	Diminished resilience

Ecological regime shifts
•	Coral to algal dominated communities
•	Kelp forests to rocky barrens
•	Clear to turbid water lakes
•	Tundra to boreal

Implications for human safety?
• Ecosystems services = $125-145 trillion / year
• $4-20 trillion / year LOST (1997-2011)

Question 52

Health impacts of CC

Answer 52

•	Direct effects
o	Storms
o	Draught
o	Flood
o	Heatwave
•	Indirect effects
o	Water quality
o	Air pollution
o	Land use change
o	Ecological change
•	Social dynamics
o	Age and gender
o	Health status
o	Socioeconomic status
o	Social Capital
o	Public health infrastructure
o	Mobility and conflict status
•	Health impact
o	Mental illness
o	Malnutrition
o	Allergies
o	Cardiovascular diseases
o	Infectious diseases
o	Injuries
o	Respiratory diseases
o	Poisoning

Question 53

Indirect effects on vector-borne diseases from climate change

Answer 53

• Desertification and drought
o Reduction in density of water-related vectors
o When drinking water sources become scare, more chance of guinea worm transmission
o Changes in distribution of rodent reservoirs / sandfly, this affecting black fever
• Other changes in vegetation
o Affects tsetse fly distribution and risk factors
o Affects tick distribution, bacterial and viral tick-borne diseases
• Hydrological changes
o Formation of more brackish water lagunae, extending the breeding or brackish water species
o Changes in riverbeds affecting tsetse fly ecology
• Changed Agricultural Practises: i.e. changes in irrigation, cropping, pesticides, livestock
o A wide range of effects on mosquito-borne and snail-borne diseases.

Question 54

Further indirect effects

Answer 54

o	Changes in air pollution
o	Spread of disease vectors
o	Food insecurity, nutrition
o	Displacement
o	Mental ill health

Question 55

Global health exposure

Answer 55

o 2bn additional exposure events for elderly people experiencing heat waves
o 1.4bn additional person drought exposure events per year by the end of the century
o 2bn additional extreme rainfall exposure events annually
o Women, children and the poor worst affected
o Additional 20-25 million under-nourished children by 2050 (17-22% increase)
o Low and middle-income countries often unable to adapt – higher exposures, burden of disease
o Natural disasters kill more women than men, and at a much younger age

Question 56

Policy suggestions

Answer 56

o	Coal phase out
o	Growth in renewables
o	Energy access
o	Deployment of low-emissions vehicles
o	Food consumption, production and waste
o	Etc.

Question 57

Focus Example: Coal phase out

Answer 57

o Compromises 29% of total global fuel use
o Is used to produce 40% of electricity
o Contributes the most to ambient air pollution and GHG emissions of all energy sources used to produce electricity
o Is responsible for 60% of global SO2 emissions
o 800,000 deaths in the OECD, India and China

Question 58

Stern review: conclusions

Answer 58

o	Climate change affects all countries
o	Cost of action are far less than cost of inaction
o	Danger of delayed action
o	Climate change as a market failure
o	Policy has great potential
o	Global collaboration is essential

Question 59

Who are the big players in the finance industry?

Answer 59

o	Banking
o	Central banks
o	Insurance
o	Retirement
o	Investment Banks

Question 60

How to avoid stranded assets?

Answer 60

o	Divestment
o	Active engagement
o	Selective investment
o	Carbon pricing
o	Innovation
o	Disclosure and improved information
o	Investing in low-carbon infrastructure

Question 61

CC as ‘human security threat’

Answer 61

o Vulnerable livelihoods – face additional pressures from the impacts and governance of CC. This compounded livelihood insecurity can put citizens at greater risk of disasters or a driver of conflict
o Sudden poverty – and perception of future insecurity can drive vulnerable people to join armed groups
o Weak states – undemocratic, exploitative, have marginal, or ungoverned regions; poor capacity
o Migration – political and institutional responses to migration are the most important factors
o Food insecurity and poor access to basic services

Question 62

Human security example: Syria

Answer 62

o Long term grievances against government
o Major economic restructuring in 2000s
o Worst drought in 500 years
o 800k Syrians lost rural livelihoods
o Arrest of 13yr old boys in rural town Daraa for anti government graffiti
o Protests in cities followed by both violent government crackdown
o Influx of foreign fighters

Question 63

Focussing in on sustainable livelihoods

Answer 63

o	Adaptive capacity is essential under climate change. How can households adapt?
o	Agricultural intensification
o	Livelihood diversification
o	Migration
o	Rural-urban pathways
o	Climate resilient housing
o	Early warning systems
o	Use of alternative energy
o	Development of urban hinterland

Question 64

Adapting to sustainable livelihoods under conditions of: Poverty and marginalisation

Answer 64

o Paavola (2008) shows how farmers have adapted to CC in Tanzania
o Adaptations have degraded the natural resource base, which is a safety net for the most vulnerable groups – women, children and pastoralists
o These groups do not have the institutional networks, or resources to adapt to these changes
o They become more vulnerable and insecure
o Applies to other regions too

Question 65

Adapting to sustainable livelihoods under conditions of…

Urbanisation and the rural-urban continuum

Answer 65

o Neves and du Toit (2013) – urbanisation and de-agrarianisation’ are changing livelihoods and vulnerabilities in rural S.Africa
o ‘jobless de-agrarianisation’ – livelihood dependent on smallholder farming and remittances from the cities.
o Decline of manufacturing and mining industries directly affecting rural communities – less remittances; less economic migration
o Rural livelihoods becoming less sustainable and more diverse / complex
o Survivalist improvisation – new sources, new roles for vulnerable groups
Material vulnerability are on the increase

Question 66

Adapting to sustainable livelihoods under conditions of…

Conflict

Answer 66

o SDPI (2012) – Conflict in FATA and KPK – Pakistan – has created complex vulnerabilities related to basic services, social protection and livelihoods
o Loss of livestock, agricultural tools, seeds
o Market disrupted – food inflation, reduced volumes
o Institutional support has been influenced by international donors & elites’ security agenda
o Response insufficiently considered the geographies of vulnerability in the region – especially the needs of women

Question 67

How to measure vulnerability

Answer 67

o	Material -> 35%
♣	income sources, 10%
♣	educational attainment, 5%
♣	assets, 8%
♣	exposure, 10%
o	Social -> 50%
♣	social networks, 10%
♣	extra-local kinship ties, 5%
♣	infrastructure, 16%
♣	warning systems, 4%
♣	number of earning members in a household, 5%
♣	membership of a disadvantaged group, 5%
o	Attitudinal -> 15%
♣	sense of empowerment, 10%
♣	knowledge about hazards and resources, 5%

Question 68

Natural systems: Freshwater Resources

Answer 68

o 2.5% of worlds water is fresh water. However only 1% is actually accessible for drinking water (0.01% of all water)
o Most is locked up in ice caps (96%)
o Ground water, lakes and rivers also hold large quanitites.
o Majority of fresh water available goes into agriculture (70-92%).
o Average diet currently uses 3000-500 litres of water a day
o Animal products account for largest share with beef products heaviest impact
♣ 40% of cereal are used for animal feed
o Virtual water (and nutrients) transported in the form of trade
o Asia and Africa have low levels of access to fresh water and Asia not meeting its water sanitation millennium goals

Question 69

Main Services of fresh water to humans

Answer 69

o Fisheries, which supply most of the worlds protein. Particularly strong growth trends in Asia followed by Africa. Cheap protein, employing about 41mn people globally
o Biodiversity: over 25% described vertebrates, 126,000 animal species and 2,600 plant species inhabit fresh waters (highest population centres in central Asia/ India, north America and Amazonas.

Question 70

But the real drivers of these environments are?

Answer 70

o Archabacteria kick-started life on earth, by altering the atmosphere.
o Nematodes have a greater global biomass than all the vertebrates combined
o Microbes, Diatoms, Algae and Viruses
o Humans and top of food chain animals (Cormorant)

Question 71

Threats to Fresh water resources

Answer 71

o Pollution
• Urban aquifers meet the growing water demands of several major cities (e.g. Bangkok, Dakar), but unregulated exploitation, and the disposal of solid and liquid wastes are polluting the.
o Climate Change
• Changing precipitation
• Glaciers shrinking
• Permafrost warming and thawing
• Temperature increases also affect animals in behaviour, metabolism, sex ratio, growth etc.
o Land use change & habitat loss
• River fragmentation as dams provide water security and new fishery opportunities. However, they also severely impact migration behaviour of Salmon and other fish.
• Also situation in Iraq of damming Euphrates and Tigris upstream.
o Overuse & Poaching
• Lake Chad example basically completely diminished
• Similar to Mekong River. 60 mn people depend on it, but countries downstream (Cambodia and Vietnam) are exposed to the decisions made by nationas upstream
o Invasion
• Nile perch invasion of Lake Victoria (200 species lost)
Easiest way to protect fresh water? Cut back on agricultural dependency on it!

Question 72

What is food security?

Answer 72

o A situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO)
o Predominantly Africa and Asia affected by Food insecurity
o Not every country will suffer the same, UK and China are set to benefit

Question 73

Food security is affected by

Answer 73

o Long run: warming climate, responses to climate initiatives and government policies
o Short run: Climate events (drought, heat wave, floods) and market/government responses

Question 74

Main areas that can be improved (food security):

Answer 74

o Poorly managed fisheries
o Low investment in soil quality
o No access to credit
o Demand for biofuels (30% of US maize crop in 2007/8)
o Globally 5% of cereals go into agrofuels
o Increasing meat consumption in developing countries

Question 75

What does a 21st century food crisis look like?

Answer 75

o	Localised and linked to weather shocks and lost harvest/livestock
o	Famines
o	Often isolated – specific country or region
o	Solutions?
o	Wait it out
o	Food aid
o	Storage
o	Food shipped from surplus areas

Question 76

Examples 2007/8: what caused the crisis?

Answer 76

o Harvest related
o Low grain reserves
♣ Strategic decision and cumulative impact of year on year poor harvests
o 2005/6 droughts in some major grain producing countries
o Overlay that with reflex reactions and strategic moves
♣ Export restrictions
♣ Stockpiling
♣ Speculation
o Were biofuels to blame?
o Secret report: biofuel caused food crisis (July 2008)
o Biofuels have forced global food prices up by 75%
o Yes and no. Replace that with algae and were all good in the hood
o Rice exploded compared to wheat because a lot of the stocks were horded when news broke of prices rising. Coupled with panic buying and restricting exports this leads to massive price jumps
o Excessive speculation also contributed to higher prices
o First crisis that was felt across the globe

Question 77

How to prevent a future food crisis?

Answer 77

o Storage
• Emergency reserves for food aid, makes some sense
• Internationally co-ordinated public grain reserves, could crowd out private storage
• Regional and national stocks; possible but costly
o Virtual and para-reserves, unlikely to be feasible
• Virtual reserve to prevent speculative attacks in futures markets,
• Diversion of grains from animal feed and industrial uses when price spikes are forming; probably only to deal with vulnerable
o Information and co-ordination
• More and better information on storage; helpful
• International food agency to report on stocks and cooperate to ensure supplies in right markets
o Trade facilitation
• International grain clearing arrangement
• Prevention of export bans, considerable support for this
• Food import financing facility
o Establish production reserves, could make things worse given delays

Question 78

Bad governance leads to food crisis, why?

Answer 78

o Amartya Sen suggested that famines are not due to a decline in food availability but to ‘entitlement failure’
o E.g. cotton prices fall so cotton farmers cannot afford to purchase grain
o Sen argues (this has been refuted by others) that during the well documented Bengal famine of 1943, there was similar food availability as in non-famine years
o Rising commodity prices but stagnant wages
o Rural Bengal (where food is grown) experienced famine whilst urban Calcutta (where food must be imported) did not
o Ethiopia’s 1073 famine, overall food productivity did not drop
o Famine concentrated in Wollo and Tigray
o Poor transportation

Question 79

Urban systems?

Answer 79

o More than half of world’s population (54%) live in urban areas. This is expected to increase to 66% by 2050
o Increasing population in urban centres means both potentially more concentrated risk and great opportunities for benefits (adaptation)

Question 80

Urban risks?

Answer 80

o Heat
• Exacerbation of heat island effects
• Increase energy demand for cooling
• Increase in air pollution (higher temps, strong sunlight can lead to formation of ground level ozone)
• Change in distribution, quantity and quality of pollen (allergens)
• Complex interactions between heat stress, air pollution exposure, social vulnerability
o Drought, water supply, wastewater and sanitation
• Water availability and quality
• Electricity shortages
• Water related diseases
• Food prices and insecurity
• Conflict between end user (residential, commercial, industrial, agriculture)
• Drainage
o Energy supply – disruption from extreme events with knock on effects (transport, economy, health)
o Transport and telecommunications – disruption from extreme events and lifespan of key infrastructures
o Housing, recreation, heritage sites – direct damage / destruction and acceleration of deterioration and weathering
o Green infrastructure, ecosystem services – vulnerable to heat stress and pests
o Health and social services
o Poverty and discrimination exacerbates vulnerabilities.

Question 81

What are current major public health challenges potentially addressed by urban planning?

Answer 81

o Climate change
o Urban air pollution
o The global physical inactivity pandemic
o Traffic injuries

Question 82

One example: enable sustainable and active forms of transport (walking, cycling, public transport)

Answer 82

o Reduces car use hence lower air pollution, noise, energy consumption, urban heat island, traffic injuries
o Increases physical activity and social interaction
o However be aware!
o Not everything will lead to net beneficial outcomes. I.e. too much cycling in a polluted environment is more damaging than driving your car.

Question 83

Other example: greenspace

Answer 83

o Reduce the heat island effect
o Decrease energy consumption
o Improve drainage, storm water management
o Provide food supply
o Improve biodiversity
o Increase social capital – which may also increase resilience to CC
o Increase physical activity

Question 84

UK Risk assessment

Answer 84

o Surface and sea temperature shave increased by 1 degree. Record highs in 2014
o Heavy rainfall is on the increase, particularly in western and northern UK
o UK average sea level has risen by 15cm since 1900. Set to be repeated in the next 30-40 years.
o 80% reduction of emissions required by 2050
• Electricity – decarbonise baseload (nuclear)
• Buildings – efficiency improvements
• Transport – EV penetration and Hydrogen
• Industry – CCS, electrification and other fuel switching
• Non-Co2 – efficiency on farms, divert waste from landfill
• Aviation & shipping – sustainable biofuels, operational measures
UK particularly susceptible to flooding in midlands and north England.

Question 85

Six priority areas for the next national adaptation programme (NAP)

Answer 85

o Flooding and coastal change risks to communities, businesses and infrastructure
o Risk to health, wellbeing and productivity from high temperatures
o Risk of shortages in the public water supply, and for agriculture energy generation and industry
o Risk to natural capital, incl. terrestrial, coastal marine and freshwater ecosystems, soils and biodiversity
o Risk to domestic and international food production and trade
o New and emerging pests and diseases, and invasive non-native species, affecting people, plants and animals