Analysing Financial Performance (Corporate collapse) Flashcards
Financial Crisis
Any situation where one or more significant financial assets – such as stocks, real estate, or oil – suddenly (and usually unexpectedly) lose a substantial amount of their nominal value.
Banking Crisis
A crisis occurs when the banking system—or a significant number of banks cannot perform its main functions and requires assistance.
Currency crises
A sudden large depreciation in the exchange rate.
Debt crises
A government that cannot pay its debt.
Why do financial crises happen?
systemic failures
(is the risk that an event can trigger a loss of economic value or confidence in a substantial portion of the financial system that is serious enough to have significant adverse effects on the real economy.)
unanticipated or uncontrollable human behaviour,
incentives to take too much risk,
regulatory absence or failures,
or contagions that amount to a virus-like spread of problems from one institution or country to the next.
Corporate Failure
Corporate failure occurs when a company cannot achieve a satisfactory return on capital over the longer term.
Why do companies fail?
Failing to adapt to changes in the environment.
Complacency
risk-averse decision-making: select options of relatively limited impact
economies of production and administration: to retain shares by reducing price
limited opportunities for innovation and diversification
limited mental models: stop the company from changing quickly enough to keep up with environmental change.
Strategic drift
Strategic drift is a term devised by Johnson (1988) to describe a warning to those who champion the idea of strategy emerging as a series of logical, incremental steps. the rate of change in the marketplace speeds up, and the firm’s incrementalism approach is not enough to maintain its advantage, and it is left behind.
Business Valuation Prediction
Valuation of a Business: is the process of determining the current worth of a business, using objective measures, and evaluating all aspects of the business.
Market Value vs Book Value
Book Value: historical value and deprecation
Market Value: Assets resale value,
Market Capitalisation: the total value of all a company’s shares of stock. It is calculated by multiplying the price of a stock by its total number of outstanding shares
Stock market prediction: is the act of trying to determine the future value of company stock or other financial instrument traded on an exchange
Fundamental Analysis VS Technical Analysis
Fundamental analysis looks to see whether an investment is overvalued or undervalued based on underlying economic conditions (fair value of the business). Fundamental analysis is based on the theory that share price can be derived from a rational analysis of future dividends.
Technical analysis (Chartist) assumes that a security’s price already reflects all publicly available information.
Implications for Fundamental Analysis VS Technical Analysis
Fundamental analysis assumes stock price is equal to the value of expected future cash flow on the shares, discounted at the shareholders’ cost of capital. Therefore, the share price will be predictably provided that all investors have the same information about a company’s expected profits and dividends, and a known cost of capital.
Technical analysis believes past trading activity and price changes of security can be valuable indicators of the security’s future price movements. Professional analysts typically accept three general assumptions for the discipline:
everything from a company’s fundamentals to broad market factors to market psychology is already priced into the stock.
prices will exhibit trends regardless of the time frame being observed
history tends to repeat itself
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
An inefficient market is one in which an asset’s prices do not accurately reflect its true value. In extreme cases, an inefficient market may even lead to market failure.
The theory behind share price movement can be explained by the three forms of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH):
Weak form: prices incorporate information about past prices movement and their implications;
Semi-strong form: incorporate past prices movement and all publicly available information;
Strong form: past prices movement and all information, including publicly available information and inside information; share price will respond to new development and events before they become public knowledge
The EMH refers to how well prices reflect all available information: how share prices react to new information about a company
Investment Strategy
Passive investing is a buy-and-hold strategy adopted by people who believe in the efficient market hypothesis where investors seek to generate stable gains over a more extended period as fewer complexities are involved,
Active investing is a strategy adopted by people who believe the market is inefficient where investors use research, analysis, skill, and experience to discover market inefficiencies to generate a higher profit over a shorter period and exceed the benchmark returns.
Arbitrage investing: the process of simultaneous buying and selling of an asset from different platforms, exchanges or locations to cash in on the price difference
Speculative investing: the purchase of high-risk assets based on price fluctuations and “hunches” over solid fundamentals. It’s often compared to gambling (GameStop-Shorting Stock)
Momentum investing: investors buy assets with an upward price trend and sell them once they seem to have peaked.
Value investing: a long-term investment strategy of buying stocks that appear undervalued and seem to be trading for less than their intrinsic value
Implications of the EMH
If markets are fully efficient, then no fundamentalortechnical analysis can help investors find anomalies and make an extra profit, even inside information can’t give a trader an advantage, and they can not exceed standard returns.
A semi-strong form of market efficiency theory accepts that individuals cannot beat the market by reading the newspaper or annual reports and investors can gain an advantage in trading only when they have access to any unknown private information unknown to the rest of the market.
Weak market efficiency indicates that the investor cannot make an excess profit by studying past share price movement and sees no or limited benefit to technical analysis to discover investment opportunities
Tests of the different forms of EMH
Weak-form efficiency market hypothesis:
test the randomness of stock prices (serial correlations, pattern recognition);
test the invalidity of technical analysis, which tests the predictability of earnings.
Semi-strong form efficiency hypothesis:
Speed of adjustment of stock prices to new information (event studies)
Studies that consider whether investors can achieve above-average profits by trading on the basis of any publicly available information (fund management performance)
Strong form efficiency hypothesis:
it is not possible to make abnormal gains by studying any kind of information
Principal-Agent Problem.
The separation between ownership and control (principal-agent) leads to potential principle-agency problems.
The different interests of principals and agents may become a source of conflict, as some agents may not perfectly act in the principal’s best interests.
The resulting miscommunication and disagreement may result in various problems and discord within companies.
Incompatible desires may drive a wedge between each stakeholder and cause inefficiencies and financial losses.
Agency theory attempts to explain and resolve disputes over priorities between principals and their agents.
Principal-Agent Relationship
The principal-agent relationship is an arrangement in which one entity legally appoints another to act on its behalf. 1 In a principal-agent relationship, the agent acts on behalf of the principal and should not have a conflict of interest in carrying out the act.
Principal-agent relationships include shareholders and management, financial planners and their clients, lessees and lessors, investors and fund managers, employers and employees., and individuals and contractor.
An agency cost is a type of internal company expense, which comes from the actions of an agent acting on behalf of a principal
Agency Theory
Agency theory is a principle that is used to explain and resolve issues in the relationship between business principals and their agents
Source of conflicts of interest
Homo economicus: a rational economic person is characterised by their infinite ability to make perfectly rational decisions, i.e. decisions that maximise their utility for monetary and non-monetary gains
Asymmetric Information: one party in a transaction is in possession of more information than the other. In certain transactions
Moral hazards: a party has not entered into a contract in good faith or has provided misleading information
Corporate policies to minimise conflicts of interest
Corporate governance: the system of rules, practices, and processes by which a firm is directed and controlled\
Performance measurement
Compensation;
Assumptions: Homo Economicus
Classical Economics based on the ‘rational economic person’ assumption:
individuals motivated by self-interest tied to wealth maximisation,
challenges the view that accountants will be ‘objective’.
Positive Accounting Theory
The Positive Accounting Theory seeks to explain and predict why accountants elect to adopt particular accounting methods in preference to others (Watts and Zimmerman, 1978, 1979, 1986).
Begin with a suitable sample of observations (e.g. of accounting practices), and enables prediction(s) to be made if the theory is a good explanation of that practice.
Past observations may suggest companies are more likely to engage in creative accounting if they are experiencing financial difficulties
If that is a good explanation of past practice, then it can be predicted that companies will be more likely to engage in creative accounting in the future if they are facing financial difficulties.
Corporate Failure Forecasting
The theory of forecasting is based on the premise that current and past knowledge can be used to make predictions about the future. In particular, for time series, there is the belief that it is possible to identify patterns in historical values and successfully implement them in the process of predicting future values.
Assessing the likelihood of failure
Quantitative information
Analysis of the company accounts to identity problems relating to key ratios such as liquidity, gearing and profitability
Other information in the published accounts such as:
Very large increase in intangible fixed assets
A worsening cash position is shown by the cash flow statement
Very large contingent liability
Important post-balance sheet events
Qualitative information
Information in the chairman’s report and the director’s report (including warning, evasions and changes in the composition of the board since last year)
Information in the press (about the industry and the company or its competitors)
Information about environmental or external matters such as changes in the market for the company’s products or service
Financial Distress Prediction
The intention of a financial distress prediction system is to disclose the potential operational and financial risks of a company and to alert business owners and managers of such risks before any outbreak.
Financial Distress Prediction Applications
External (To The Firm) Analytics
Lenders (e.g., Pricing)
Bond Investors
Long/Short Investment Strategy on Stocks
Security Analysts & Rating Agencies
Regulators & Government Agencies
Auditors – Going Concern
Advisors (e.g., Assessing Client’s Health)
M&A
Internal (To The Firm) & Research Analytics
To File or Not (e.g., General Motors)
Comparative Risk Profiles Over Time
Industrial Sector Assessment (e.g., Energy)
Purchasers, Suppliers Assessment
Accounts Receivables Management
Researchers – Scholarly Studies
Evolution of Prediction of Financial Distress
Qualitative (Subjective): Expert’s judgment and experience (1800s)
Univariate (Accounting/Market Metric): Beaver (1960s), Dupont Analysis (1914);
Multivariate (Accounting/Market Metric): Multiple Discriminant analysis (MDA) (Z-Score, 1960’s)
Contingent Claims Approach (Balance Sheet/Market Metric) (1970s – Present)
Artificial Intelligence Systems: Expert Systems, Neural Networks, Machine Learning (1990s)
Prediction of Financial Distress
Beaver (1966) used financial ratios with a univariate technique to predict financial failure. Beaver found that the cash flow to total debt ratio is the best predictor for five years preceding failure. ALL organisations with the ratio below 0.2 failed within 5 years, and those above 0.4 did not fail the next five years.
Beaver’s model may give inconsistent and confusing classification results for different ratios for the same firm (Altman 1968).
Altman developed the well-known Z score model with financial ratios based on multiple discriminant analysis (MDA). The results found that five financial ratios (Liquidity, Profitability, Efficiency, Leverage, and Solvency) are significant predictors in the corporate bankruptcy prediction model.
The Z-score Model
First developed by Altman in 1968 as a measure of the probability of a company going bankrupt.
Altman’s Z-score Model is a numerical measurement that is used to predict the chances of bankruptcy.
Altman’s Z-score model combines five financial ratios to predict the probability of a company becoming insolvent in the next two years.
Z-score constituent ratios
Working Capital/total assets (WC/TA) - Liquidity
Working Capital is the difference between the current assets and current liabilities as obtained from the balance sheet
Retained Earnings/total assets ( RE/TA) – Cumulative Profitability
Retained Earning is also known as the earned surplus
It represents the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life-cycle
Can be obtained from the balance sheet
Earnings before interest and taxes/Total assets (EBIT/TA) - Efficiency
Measure of a corporation’s earning power from ongoing operations, by looking at the productivity of assets
Also known as Operating profit
Watched closely by creditors as it represents the total amount of cash that a corporation can use to pay off its creditors
Can be obtained for the Income statement
Market Value of Equity/Book Value of total liabilities (MVE/TL) –Gearing/Leverage
The market value of equity is the total market value of all of the stock, both preferred and common
The book value of liabilities is the total value of liabilities both long-term and current
The MVE/TL shows how much the firms’ assets can decline in value with increasing liabilities before the liabilities exceed the assets
Sales/Total Assets (S/TA) - Solvency
Also known as capital turnover ratio
Illustrates the sales-generating ability of the corporation’s assets by looking at the revenue-generating capability
Z-Scores weighting
Working Capital/total assets (WC/TA) - Liquidity X 1.2
Retained Earnings/total assets ( RE/TA) – Cumulative Profitability X 1.4
Earnings before interest and taxes/Total assets (EBIT/TA) - Efficiency X 3.3
Market Value of Equity/Book Value of total liabilities (MVE/TL) –Gearing/Leverage X 0.6
Sales/Total Assets (S/TA) - Solvency X 1
Z-Score indiactor
Less than 1.81 - companies with a Z score of below 1.81 are in danger and possibly heading towards bankruptcy
Between 1.81 and 2.99 - companies with scores between 1.81 and 2.99 need further investigation.
3 or above - companies with a score of 3 or above are financially sound.
Additional Altman Z-Score Models
Private Firm Model (1968)
Non-U.S., Emerging Markets Models for Non-Financial Industrial Firms (1995), e.g., Latin America (1977, 1995), China (2010), etc.
Sovereign Risk Bottom-Up Model (2010)
SME Models for the U.S. (2007) & Europe