AL - L6 Population Theory

Question 1

Which three revolutions have contributed to population growth over time?

Answer 1

The agricultural revolution
The public healthcare revolution
The industrial revolution

Question 2

What are the characteristics of the agricultural revolution?

Answer 2

Mechanisation of agriculture (also freeing people up to urbanise) ​

Introduction of new HYV and GM crops to increase carrying capacity ​

The Green Revolution ​

Selective breeding in animals

Question 3

What are the characteristics of the public healthcare revolution?

Answer 3

Planning laws – minimum width of streets / back-to-back housing to increase ventilation etc.​

The introduction of the NHS​ in the UK

Mass vaccination programmes and the development of vaccines ​

Increase of international aid for health​

Advances in new treatments for cancers etc.

Question 4

What are the characteristics of the industrial revolution?

Answer 4

Rapid urbanisation and denser populations ​

Population explosions in the early stages of industrialisation as coupled with more stable food supplies and better healthcare, DR falls rapidly​

As people find work later and land values increase etc, so it becomes more expensive to support children so BR falls. When coupled with a higher life expectancy, populations grow​

Non-industrialised countries have a relatively stable population: BR and DRs are high

Question 5

Define the term: natural increase rate

Answer 5

It is the birth rate minus the death rate. It is normally expressed as a % per year

Question 6

Define the term: (crude) birth rate

Answer 6

It is the average number of children born (live) per 1,000 people per year.

Question 7

Define the term: (crude) death/mortality rate

Answer 7

​It is the number of people who die per 1,000 people per year.

Question 8

Define the term: (total) fertility rate

Answer 8

The average number of children each female in a country will give birth to so long as she remains healthy during her child bearing years.

Question 9

Define the term: infant mortality rate

Answer 9

It is the number of deaths of babies/children under one year of age or before their first birthday per thousand live births per year.​

​

Question 10

Define the term: life expectancy

Answer 10

It is the average number of years from birth that a person is expected to live.

Question 11

Define the term: net migration

Answer 11

The balance between immigration and emigration. If immigration exceeds emigration in a country, the population will grow. If emigration exceeds immigration, the population will shrink.

Question 12

What are the three components of population change?

Answer 12

Births
Deaths
Migration

Question 13

Tow do we calculate population change?

Answer 13

P = (B-D) +/- M

P = population
B = births
D = deaths
M = migration

Question 14

Describe what happens at stage 1 of the DTM

Answer 14

Both the BR and DR are high

Question 15

Suggest reasons for high BR and DRs at stage 1 of the DTM

Answer 15

High BR:
Children are an economic asset
High infant mortality rate
Encouragement to have children - perception of male virility linked to family size and religious reasons
No family planning
Contraception not available (and education around contraception is poor)

High DR:
Disease outbreaks
Famine owing to low food security
Low levels of medical knowledge
Poor sanitation

Question 16

Suggest reasons for the fall of the DR into stage 2 of the DTM

Answer 16

Improvements in medical care
Improved water supply and sanitation
Lowering of the IMR

Question 17

Suggest why the BR remains high into stage 2 of the DTM

Answer 17

Lag time - it takes time for social attitudes towards family size to change
Also takes time for families to see that the infant mortality rate is lowering, so births remain high until that notion filters through society
Early marriages

Question 18

The BR falls at the start of stage 3 of the DTM. Why?

Answer 18

Improvements in medical care and diet mean the infant mortality rate is lower
Fewer children are needed as more survive
Improvements in education around rearing children in their early years
Shifting attitudes towards women in society - greater participation in the workforce
People start marrying later

Question 19

Stage 4 has low BRs and DRs. Why?

Answer 19

Low BR:
Family planning
Improving status of women in society
Later marriages and higher separation rates means babies are had later
Healthcare improvements
Contraception availability and education improves

Low DR:
Good availability and knowledge of healthcare
Reliable food supply
Clean water is accessible
Less dangerous work

Question 20

Describe what happens at stage 5 of the DTM?

Answer 20

The BR falls below the DR
This results in natural decrease (or negative natural increase)

Question 21

Suggest why the BR falls below the DR in stage 5 of the DTM?

Answer 21

Low BR:
Family planning
Improving status of women in society
Later marriages and higher separation rates means babies are had later
Healthcare improvements
Contraception availability and education improves

Question 22

Outline 5 criticisms/limitations of the DTM

Answer 22

The model is descriptive rather than explanatory

Birth rates in several of the most economically developed countries have, since the model was conceptualised, fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden) – this has caused a population decline suggesting the model should have predicted a fifth stage.

The model, being more Eurocentric, assumed that in time all countries would pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely that many of the economically less developed countries, especially in Africa, will industrialise – at least not in the same way.

The model assumed that the fall in DR in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialisation. Initially, the DR in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the DR in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities.

The fall in BR in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was a much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced ‘one-child’ policy.

The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialised countries.

The model fails to account for population policies

The model fails to note that social change and shifts in social attitudes occur at different paces in different countries

Question 23

Describe and explain the uses and limitations of the DTM

Answer 23

Question 24

Outline the challenges for a country at stage 5 of the DTM

Answer 24

Ageing population

Reduction in total population over time (negative natural increase)

Pressure on the pension funds

Increased economic burden on the economically active to support pension funds - so they pay more tax

Increased pressure on age-related services e.g., hospital care for the elderly and community care (retirement housing etc.)

Increased land prices as elderly remain in their houses for longer - so supply falls but demand remains high

Service decline in some areas as youth-related services are under-used and ultimately shutdown

Changes in government spending priorities

Issues around national security as armed forces are likely to shrink

Changing political outlook - typically more right wing

Question 25

How else might you describe a country with a high dependent population?

Answer 25

Ageing or youthful (it could be either!)

Question 26

What is the dependency ratio?

Answer 26

The working population v non-working:
pop under 15/16 + pop over 60/65 divided by pop aged 15(16) to 60(65).

Question 27

Describe the characteristics of the 2023 population pyramid shown for Mozambique .

Answer 27

Wide base
Concave sides
Low, narrow apex
Reasonably high death rate

Include data where possible

Question 28

Describe the characteristics of the population shown in Mozambique’s 2023 population pyramid.

Answer 28

Reasonably balanced males and females
More females than males into older age
Fairly low life expectancy + data
Youthful population - high BR
Relatively few economically active
Reasonably high death rate

Question 29

Why does population growth slow with increasing economic development?

Answer 29

Greater gender equality​

More investment in family planning​

Wider availability of contraception ​

Changing attitudes towards ‘family’ and the structure of ‘family’ ​

Increasing cost of raising children ​

Later marriage and increasing rate of divorce ​

Better perinatal and antenatal healthcare – reduces the IMR​

Etc.

Question 30

What links can be made between population and economic development?

Answer 30

1. Labour market and productivity - youthful populations will be on the cusp of a demographic dividend, which may launch them into a strong economic position if managed well
2. Food insecurity - high rates of natural increase may lead to food insecurity as there are more mouths to feed with limited supplies. May encourage a dependency on exports of food and other resources from other countries.
3. HIV/Aids - has had a significant impact on the demographic structure of many countries over the last 30 years or so, although to a lesser extent today because of the emergence and cost reduction in anti-retroviral therapy and other medications.

Question 31

Why does life expectancy increase over time?

Answer 31

Life expectancy increases over time with development and improvements in diet, water supply, healthcare, education, etc. ​This is as true for LICs in the 20th and 21st centuries as for HICs from the 18th. ​

However, there are some situations in which life expectancy falls, notably through the influence of HIV/AIDS, e.g., Zimbabwe, or during prolonged crises, such as war or famine, affecting whole societies.

The opioid crisis in the USA has also seen a reduction in its life expectancy for the first time in many, many years.

Question 32

Describe the relationship between population growth and development in the demographic transition.

Answer 32

The DTM attempts to show this relationship.

Modernisation of the economy leads to less need/desire for children and a shift from agricultural to industrial society.

The status of women changes as countries develop, leading to a reduction in BRs.

As countries develop, social attitudes shift which often leads to a decrease in fertility levels and birth rates.​

Increasing development leads to advances in medical care, which improves perinatal and post-partum healthcare, reducing the infant mortality rate.

Question 33

What is the typical dependency ratio of a HIC?

Answer 33

Typically 70 dependents to every 100 economically active (70:100, 70% or 0.7).

This will, however, increase in time due to ageing

Question 34

What is the typical dependency ratio of a LIC?

Answer 34

Typically over 100 dependents to every 100 economically active (e.g., 105:100 or 105% or 1.05)

This will, however, likely decrease due to the youthful population transitioning into the economically active bracket.

Question 35

A country with a high youthful population may experience rapid economic and social development, if managed carefully. What are these countries said to be experiencing/benefitting from?

Answer 35

The demographic dividend

Question 36

What are the economic implications of a high dependency ratio?

Answer 36

A higher dependency ratio is likely to reduce productivity growth.

A growth in the non-productive population will diminish productive capacity and could lead to a lower long run trend rate of economic growth.

If the government fails to tackle issues relating from a higher dependency ratio, there could be increased pressures placed on government finances, leading to higher borrowing or higher taxes on the economically active which also reduce economic growth.

Businesses may be dissuaded from investing owing to a smaller, and potentially more expensive, workforce.

Question 37

What are the social implications of a high dependency ratio?

Answer 37

Ageing:

The retired population will make up a bigger share of the population. Therefore, they will have a bigger political voice. It may require different attitudes to how we care for old people, e.g. should someone’s house be mortgage to pay for their health care? Should responsibility for looking after old people fall on the state or should private charity and family play a greater role?

Youthful:

Pressure on schools, maternity healthcare and housing
Likely high rates of unemployment if jobs are not created

Question 38

How might pension funds be affected by an ageing population?

Answer 38

Because of the rising percentage of retired people, pension funds have to stretch further than before.

Many pension funds haven’t planned for the rapid rise in the dependency ratio.

Combined with the credit crisis and low interest rates, the average income retired people can expect has fallen.

The economically active are taxed more to account for this.

Question 39

How might governments solve the issues of an ageing population?

Answer 39

Open-door immigration (Singapore)
Pro-natal population policies (Singapore)
Increased taxation on the economically active
Redistribution of funds (closing down youth services to free up money for spending elsewhere)
Raising the state pension age (the State Pension age for men and women will increase from 67 to 68 between 2044 and 2046)
Abolishing the retirement age (employers used to be able to force workers to retire at 65 (known as the Default Retirement Age), but this law was scrapped in April 2011)

Question 40

What might the positive and negative impacts of an ageing population be?

Answer 40

Positive (insert your own case study detail):
More experience in the workforce
Childcare benefits
Charity work
Value of the ‘grey pound’

Negatives (insert your own case study detail):
Career stagnation - delayed retirement means promotions are blocked as people remain in the workforce for longer
Housing market impacts - cost goes up as demand rises but supply doesn’t
Lower tax revenues
Lower national security (elderly less likely to be in the armed forces)
Possible unrest at the prospect of raising taxation on the economically active
Higher government spending to meet pension and healthcare promises, means funds will likely be reduced elsewhere
Shifting political voice - elderly are more likely to vote conservative

Question 41

Outline some of the positive impacts of a youthful population?

Answer 41

Positive (insert your own case study detail):

Large potential workforce: India is also set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2030. With is dependency ratio falling by 15% between 2010 and 2030, India will move into the “demographic sweet spot”, spurring economic growth as its relatively youthful population enters the workforce.

Large market for goods: Nigeria’s median age is 18, compared to a world average of 29 (and a US average of 37),” states the report. “Over 40% of Nigeria’s population is younger than 14, and almost 65% younger than 24.” This “population bulge” creates opportunities, one being the emergence of a robust consumer base. Rising incomes in Nigeria suggest a maturation of its middle class.

Attractive to new investment: Turkey has the largest youth population compared with the EU with half the population under 29.7 years.

Question 42

Outline some of the negative impacts of a youthful population?

Answer 42

Negative (insert your own case study detail):

Cost of supporting schools and clinics: a large percentage of Malawi’s population, 46 percent, is below age 15. While a youthful population represents the potential for a large labour force in the future, it places a heavy burden on the working-age population (ages 15 to 64) to provide for the basic needs and services required by children and youth, such as health and education.

High rates of unemployment: Egypt is the Arab world’s most heavily populated country and one of its youngest: two thirds of the population are under 30. However, the young make up 90% of the nation’s unemployed (the official rate is 9.4%, but the real number among the young is much much higher).

Large numbers living in poor quality housing: These informal settlements are filled with an increasingly youthful population, unemployed and disaffected. Many cities where this is playing out are becoming breeding grounds for potential instability and discontent.

Question 43

Why do we get food shortages?

Answer 43

A function of both supply and demand:

This is a function of both supply and demand​

Demand issues:​
Rising due to population growth​
Rising due to increased affluence​
Rising due to migration​

Supply issues:​
Inadequate infrastructure (particularly around refrigeration and transport)​
Climatic limitations (flooding/drought etc.) reducing yields ​
Pest outbreaks (locusts)​
Salinisation of the soil leading to crop death​
Soil erosion and leaching of nutrients due to poor agricultural practices​
Some governments impose export limits

Question 44

Outline one consequence of food shortages.

Answer 44

An increase in food prices worldwide – from 2005-2008, food prices increased 80%. Consumers in HICs were forced to adjust, but some in Africa faced a dire situation.

Question 45

What might the impacts of increasing food prices be?

Answer 45

Context: Sub Saharan Africa

Wheat prices increased some 67% in SSA​

The first solution was to stop people eating as much bread – downgrading to sorghum, but the price of sorghum increased 20% too. For many living on < US$1 a day, the answer was cutting out daily meals such as breakfast, drinking tea for lunch and rationing sorghum for dinner.​

When prices ↑, consumers often shift to cheaper, less nutritious foods, heightening the risks of micronutrient deficiencies and other forms of malnutrition. ​

When this occurs, people are less able to resist diseases, suffering from protein deficiency (kwashiorkor disease) and vitamin deficiency (beriberi disease – a lack of B1 vitamin and rickets – lack of vitamin D, among others).

Question 46

Outline one potential positive impacts of food shortages.

Answer 46

It could stimulate agricultural reform - encouraging better agricultural practices thus improving food security.

Question 47

Outline the impacts of food insecurity.

Answer 47

Positive:
encourages agricultural reform

Negative:
malnutrition and/or undernutrition and/or famine
social unrest
rising food prices
sickness that results in children unable to attend school
lower productivity in the workforce as workers can’t work

Question 48

Define the term carrying capacity.

Answer 48

It is an ecological concept​ - the optimum number of people (1) ​that can be sustained (1) ​by an environment and its resources at a given level of technology (1)

Question 49

Define overpopulation

Answer 49

As a population rises above the optimum population and exceeds the carrying capacity of that area (1) there is an increase in pressure on resources to a point where they can no longer support/sustain the population (1). This reduces living standards and leads to environmental degradation (1).

Question 50

Define underpopulation

Answer 50

An area is underpopulated when there are too few people/workers (1) to exploit their resources (efficiently) / to realise the economic potential of an area (1) to support its population’s standard of living and provide economic growth/development (1).

Question 51

Define optimum population

Answer 51

The optimum population of a country is the number of people (1) that, with the existing technology and resources, (1), produces the highest average standard of living (1).

Question 52

Outline the Malthusian school of thought with regard to the population-resource relationship.

Answer 52

The rate of population growth is faster than the rate that food supplies can grow.

In time, there would not be enough resources for everyone. Some people would starve and the population would reduce again. More people may be killed from wars over trying to get hold of resources - he called these a positive check. People might try to prevent this from happening by having smaller families. He called this a preventative check.

Question 53

What are the 4 components of food security?

Answer 53

Access
Availability
Affordability
Utilisation

Question 54

Outline the Boserup school of thought with regard to the school of thought with regard to the population-resource relationship.

Answer 54

“necessity is the mother of invention”. Someone will invent what is needed; ​

That means, if you need it, someone will invent it. If more food is needed, people would invent ways of increasing food supply - crops that fight diseases or survive with less water are examples of this. ​

​

Question 55

Outline the Club or Rome school of thought with regard to the school of thought with regard to the population-resource relationship.

Answer 55

What? they published a paper called “The Limits to Growth”. It caused a great sensation because of its clear message. ​

Context: at the time it was published the international monetary system was shaky, the economy was in a depression, the new environmental movement was gaining ground, and society was being stirred up by student protests​

Conclusions: in a basically closed system like the Earth it is impossible for the population, food production, industrialisation, the exploitation of natural resources and pollution of the environment to continue to experience exponential growth without sooner or later collapsing

Question 56

Describe the possible negative consequences of total population exceeding the resources in an area.

Answer 56

Negative consequences may be grouped as:​

Demographic, e.g. increased death rate due to famine​

Environmental, e.g. exhaustion of soil leading to soil erosion​

Economic, e.g. unemployment and increased poverty​

Social, e.g. out migration​

Political, e.g. civil unrest

Question 57

Describe the possible positive consequences of total population exceeding the resources in an area.

Answer 57

Technology innovation​

More efficient farming​

More efficient use of existing resources

Question 58

Why is optimum population is difficult to achieve?

Answer 58

The population-resource relationship is dynamic and complex – population numbers constantly change, technology improves, and resources can be depleted, or new/alternative ones exploited – so the optimum population is not a fixed a number, ​

It changes too; optimum population may become under population as technology develops and new resources are discovered or if population declines; optimum population may become overpopulation. ​

If resources are exhausted or if population increases, it is difficult to establish whether optimum population is ever achieved because it is difficult to measure.

Question 59

Outline the constraints to managing a population.

Answer 59

Constraints = limiting factors. These include:

War​
Climatic hazards​
Food shortages​
Things that affect carrying capacity​
Natural hazards​
Poverty​
Ageing​
Below replacement level fertility rates​
Lack of resources

Question 60

Give some small scale examples of how a population can increase its resource supply and carrying capacity.

Answer 60

The building of small earth dams and digging wells and boreholes to provide water for basic irrigation.​

Methods of soil conservation such as planting trees to make shelter belts to protect soil from wind erosion in dry periods. Low stone walls can be built along the contours of a slope to stop runoff and allow it time to enter the soil. This helps to prevent soil erosion and increases the amount of water in the soil, making it available for crops.​

Tied ridging – low walls of soil are built in a field to form a grid of small squares which stops runoff and again allows water to drain into the soil. Root crops such as potatoes and cassava are grown on the soil walls. ​

Strip/inter Cropping involves alternate strips of crops at different stages of growth across a slope. This limits runoff as there is always a strip of crops to trap water and prevent soil moving down a slope.​

Improved food storage which allows food to be kept fresh and edible for longer periods of time and protected from being eaten by rats and insects and from diseases. ​

Question 61

How can we innovate to increase carrying capacity?

Answer 61

Insert detailed example evidence linked to the points below.

Hydroponics
Selective breeding
Advanced irrigation methods e.g., drip irrigation
Use of biofuels
The use of fertilisers and pesticides (e.g., during the green revolution)
Genetically modified crops