After the Hit Flashcards
After 8 off
Win Probabilities?
After the Hit
8-off is the break-even position
(assumes 3 extra ideally placed)
After 11 off
Win Probabilities?
Cube Action?
After the Hit
Black’s last take point
White 76%
White - Double / Take
After 5 off
Win Probabilities?
Cube Action?
After the Hit
White’s last take point
Black 78%
Black - Double / Borderline Pass
After 13 off - 2 on bar
Win Probabilities?
Cube Action?
After the Hit
Black 68%
Black - No Double / Take
With 3-off and both still on the bar black has a double take. 4-off double pass
After 12 off - 2 on bar
Win Probabilities?
Cube Action?
After the Hit
Black 75%
Black - Double / Take
The extra checker on th ace point allows black to double. 2 on the ace point 79% - pass.
After some off
Win Probabilities?
Cube Action?
After the Hit
Black 78%
Black - Double / Take
Robertie’s rule of 5
With 5 more to bear off than white, black has a double take.
black 12 left / white 7 left - double take
After some off
Win Probabilities?
After the Hit
Black 30%
The 4-3-2 rule
The number of checkers (4) opponent has to bear off not counting the man on the bar.
In this example - number of men (4), win probability between 30 and 20 (3-2) depending on the location of black’s spares.
After some off
Win Probabilities?
After the Hit
Black 60%
The 4-3-2 rule
The number of checkers (7) opponent has to bear off not counting the man on the bar.
In this example - number of men (7), win probability between 60 and 50 (6-5) depending on the location of black’s spares.
EPC
Stack and Straggler
Cube action?
After the Hit
White EPC - 3 rolls - (7xrolls+1) = 22
Black EPC - (3.5xcheckers + straggler pipcount) = 3x3.5 + 11 = 21.5
trailer take point - Leader EPC + (#of rolls-3) = 22 + (3-3) = 22 or less
leader double point = ttp-2 = 20
double window = 20 -> 22
leader redouble point = ttp-1 = 21
redouble window = 21 -> 22
white - double / take
EPC
Stack and Straggler
Cube action?
After the Hit
White EPC - 4 rolls - (7xrolls+1) = 29
Black EPC - (3.5xcheckers + straggler pipcount) = 6x3.5 + 11 = 32
trailer take point - Leader EPC + (#of rolls-3) = 29 + (4-3) = 30 or less
leader double point = ttp-2 = 28
double window = 28 -> 30
leader redouble point = ttp-1 = 21
redouble window = 29 -> 30
white - double / pass
14 off
Running for home
Cube action?
After the Hit
White EPC - 3 rolls - (7xrolls+1) = 22
Black EPC - (straggler pipcount + 4.7) = 17 + 4.7 = 21.7
trailer take point - Leader EPC + (#of rolls-3) = 22 + (3-3) = 22 or less
leader double point = ttp-2 = 20
double window = 20 -> 22
leader redouble point = ttp-1 = 21
redouble window = 21 -> 22
white - double / take (72%)
13 off
Running for home
Cube action?
After the Hit
White EPC - 4 rolls - (7xrolls+1) = 29
Black EPC - (straggler pipcount + 5.2) = 11+13 + 5.2 = 29.2
trailer take point - Leader EPC + (#of rolls-3) = 29 + (4-3) = 30 or less
leader double point = ttp-2 = 28
double window = 28 -> 30
leader redouble point = ttp-1 = 29
redouble window = 29 -> 30
white - double / take (70%)
Are we winning?
Safe or Bearoff?
After the Hit
6/off 6/1 safe or 6/off 5/off
analyze position after safe move
white 13 checkers - 7 rolls
black 6 checkers - 3 rolls (use halves if needed)
black on bar - 3.5 rolls
black gap on ace (if 5 or more checkers) - n/a
white 7 / black 6.5 (after safe play)
white must bearoff - 6/off 5/off
Are we winning?
Safe or Bearoff?
After the Hit
6/off 6/1 safe or 6/off 5/off
analyze position after safe move
white 13 checkers - 7 rolls
black 7 checkers - 3.5 rolls (use halves if needed)
black on bar - 3.5 rolls
black gap on ace (if 5 or more checkers) - n/a
white 7 / black 7 (after safe play)
both plays are equal
Are we winning?
Safe or Bearoff?
After the Hit
6/off 6/1 safe or 6/off 5/off
analyze position after safe move
white 13 checkers - 7 rolls
black 7 checkers - 3.5 rolls (use halves if needed)
black on bar - 3.5 rolls
black gap on ace (if 5 or more checkers) - .5 rolls
white 7 / black 7.5 (after safe play)
6/off 6/1 is corret
Are we winning?
Safe or Bearoff?
After the Hit
4/off 4/1 safe or 6/off 3/off
analyze position after safe move
white 11 checkers - 6 rolls
black 4 checkers - 2 rolls (use halves if needed)
black on bar - 3.5 rolls
black gap on ace (if 5 or more checkers) - n/a
white 6 / black 5.5 (after safe play)
white must bearoff - 4/off 3/off
Are we winning?
Safe or Bearoff?
After the Hit
6/5 6/4 safe or 3/off
analyze position after safe move
white 12 checkers - 6 rolls
black 4 checkers - 2 rolls (use halves if needed)
black on bar - 3.5 rolls
black gap on ace (if 5 or more checkers) - n/a
white 6 / black 5.5 (after safe play)
this position is an exception to the rule
6/5 6/4 is correct to maintain a 5 point board longer
