AACE CEP Flashcards
Project cost estimator
Project cost estimators predict the cost of a project for a defined scope, to be completed at a defined location and point of time in the future. Cost estimators assist in the economic evaluation of potential projects by supporting the development of project budgets, project resource requirements, and value engineering. They also support project control by providing input to the cost control baseline. Estimators collect and analyze data on all of the factors that can affect project costs such as: materials, equipment, labor, location, duration of the project, and other project requirements
Cost Estimating is
The predictive process used to quantify, cost, and price the resources required by the scope of an investment option, activity, or project. Cost estimating is a process used to predict uncertain future costs. In that regard, a goal of cost estimating is to minimize the uncertainty of the estimate given the level and quality of scope definition.
Common steps that are involved in estimating
Step One: Quantification.
Step Two: Costing
Step Three: Pricing
Step One: Quantification
Whether using a stochastic estimating approach or a more definitive approach, the elements of scope must first be quantified in order to assign costs
Step Two: Costing
Once the scope has been translated into measurable items with quantities, costs can be assigned to those items.
Step Three: Pricing
Once the estimate items are costed, it is time to price the estimate, entailing making judgments concerning the anticipated economic environment, competitive situation, allowance for overhead and profit, and other factors to shape the estimate to meet the needs of the parties involved. Often, once the estimate has been priced, it will still need to be conditioned or adapted to specific conditions applicable to the project or product being estimated.
What Cost Estimators do:
- Project cost estimators predict the cost of a project for a defined scope, to be completed at a defined location and a point in time.
- Cost estimators assist in the economic evaluation of potential projects by supporting the development of project budgets, project resource requirements, and value engineering.
- Cost estimators support project control by providing input to the cost control baseline.
- Cost estimators collect and analyze data on all of the factors that can affect project costs such as materials, equipment, labor, location, duration of the project, and other project requirements.
1
Elements of cost include
Elements of cost include engineering, design, labor, material, equipment, and any other costs necessary for delivering the scope of work at an agreed‐upon price
Direct costs
Direct costs are costs of completing works that are directly attributable to its performance and are necessary for its completion.
In construction, the cost of installed equipment, material, labor and supervision directly or immediately involved in the physical construction of the permanent facility.
In manufacturing, service, and other non‐construction industries: the portion of operating costs that is readily assignable to a specific product or process area.
Indirect costs
Indirect costs are costs not directly attributable to the completion of an activity, which are typically allocated or spread across all activities on a predetermined basis.
In construction, (field) indirects are costs which do not become a final part of the installation, but which are required for the orderly completion of the installation and
may include, but are not limited to, field administration, direct supervision, capital tolls, startup costs, contractor’s fees, insurance, taxes, etc.
In manufacturing, costs not directly assignable to the end product or process, such as overhead and general purpose labor, or costs of outside operations, such astransportation and distribution. Indirect manufacturing costs sometimes include insurance, property taxes, maintenance, depreciation, packaging, warehousing, and
loading.
1
What is cost?
1
Cost is the value of an activity or asset. Generally, this value is determined by the cost of the resources that are expended to complete the activity or produce the asset. Resources utilized
are categorized as material, labor, and “other.” Although money and time are sometimes thought of as resources, they only implement and/or constrain the use of the physical resources just listed.
1
COST ACCOUNTING
1
The historical reporting of actual and/or committed disbursements (costs and expenditures) on a project. Costs are denoted and segregated within cost codes that are defined in a chart of accounts. In project control practice, cost accounting provides the measure of cost commitment and/or expenditure that can be compared to the measure of physical completion (or earned value) of an account
1
COST BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE (CBS)
1
A hierarchical structure that divides budgeted resources into elements of costs, typically labor, materials and other direct costs. The lowest level, when assigned responsibility, typically defines a cost center.
1
TRENDING
1
A review of current progress compared to last reported progress which, when displayed graphically, shows whether a course correction is necessary to achieve the baseline plan
Cost trending is established from historical cost acconting information
1
Cost forecasting
1
Is a prediction of cost at completion for elements that are in progress.
Estimating is prediction for future activities
1
ANALYSIS
1
The examination of a complex whole and the separation and identification of its constituent parts and their relationships.
2
BASELINE
1
In project control, the reference plans in which cost, schedule, scope and other project performance criteria are documented and against which performance measures are assessed and changes noted.
2
The budget and schedule that represent approved scope of work and work plan. Identifiable plans, defined by
databases approved by project management and client management, to achieve selected project objectives. It
becomes basis for measuring progress and performance and is baseline for identifying cost and schedule
deviations
1
Codes of Accounts
1
A systematic coding structure for organizing and managing scope, asset, cost, resource, work, and schedule activity information.
A COA is essentially an index to facilitate finding, sorting, compiling, summarizing, or otherwise managing information that the code is tied to. A complete code of accounts includes definitions of the content of each account
1
DEMING CYCLE
1
PLAN
DO
CHECK
ACT
(PDCA) CYCLE.
1
VALUE ENGINEERING
1
A practice function targeted at the design itself, which has as its objective the development of design of a facility or item that will yield least life-cycle costs or provide greatest value while satisfying all performance and other criteria established for it
1
Scope
1
The sum of all that is to be or has been invested in and delivered by the performance of an activity or
project
1
The goal of estimate classification
1
The goal of estimate classification is to define the technical and project deliverables required to prepare an effective estimate.
1
ACCURACY
1
Correctness that the measured value is very close to the true value
1
What is the end usage of Class 1
1
Check estimate or bid / tender
1
What is the end usage of Class 2
1
Control or bid / tender
1
What is the end usage of Class 3
1
Budget authorization or control
1
What is the end usage of Class 4
1
Concept study or feasibility
1
What is the end usage of Class 5
1
Screening of feasibility
1
What is the methodology for Class 1
1
Deterministric
Detailed unit cost with detailed take off
1
What is the methodology for Class 2
1
Primarily deterministic
Detailed unit cost with forced detailed take off
1
What is the methodology for Class 3
1
Mixed but primarily stochastic
Semi detailed unit cost with assembly level line items
1
What is the methodology for Class 4
1
Primarily stochastic
Equipment factored or parametric models
1
What is the methodology for Class 5
1
Stochastic (factors or models) or judgment
Capacity factor, parametrics models
1
primary parameter for the classification of estimates
1
maturity level of project definition upon which the estimate is based
purpose of the estimate
methodology used in development of the estimate
acuracy of the estimate
relative effort required to produce the estimate
1
ACCURACY RANGE
1
An expression of an estimate’s predicted closeness to final actual costs or time. Typicallyexpressed as high/low percentages by which actual results will be over and under the estimate along with the confidence interval these percentages represent
1
Allowance
1
For estimating, resources included in estimates to cover the cost of known but undefined requirements for an individual activity, work item, account or sub-account.
1
Contingency
1
An amount added to an estimate to allow for items, conditions, or events for which the state, occurrence, or effect is uncertain and that experience shows will likely result, in aggregate, in additional costs
1
KNOWN-UNKNOWN
1
An identifiable quantity or value having variability or an identifiable condition lacking certainty
1
UNKNOWN-UNKNOWN
1
A quantity, value or condition that cannot be identified or foreseen, otherwise referred to as unknowable
1
The term “unit hours” refers to
1
Work hours per unit of production.
1
LEARNING CURVE
1
A graphic representation of the progress in production effectiveness as time passes
1
PROFITABILITY
1
A measure of the excess income over expenditure during a given period of time
1
PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS
1
The evaluation of the economics of a project, manufactured product, or service within a specific time frame.
1
VARIANCE
1
The difference between what was originally expected and what actually happened
1
The key areas are to be practice by the Cost Estimator
1
The key areas are: Ethics; Leadership; Information Management; Quality Management; Value Management; Health and Safety. If all of these are practiced by the Cost Estimator, there will be continuous improvement in the estimating process and the final project or process that is being produced.
1
What allows an ethical behavior, well develop database
1
Ethical behavior leads to a more harmonious society.
A well‐developed database leads to a quality estimate.
The input of cost estimating is important to value engineering to provide a more effective project.
The continuous use of the Deming Cycle (Plan‐Do‐Check‐Act) leads to better estimates.
1
CONCEPT PHASE
1
First phase of a project in which need is examined, alternatives are assessed, the goals and objectives of the project are established and a sponsor is identified
1
PARAMETRIC ESTIMATE
1
In estimating practice, describes estimating algorithms or cost estimating relationships that are highly probabilistic in nature
1
Location Factor
1
An instantaneous (current – has no escalation or currency exchange projection) overall total project factor for translating the summation of all project cost elements of a defined construction project scope of work, from one geographical location to another. Location factors include given costs, freights, duties, taxes, field indirects, project administration, and engineering and design. Location factors do not include the cost of land,scope/design differences for local codes and conditions, and the cost for various operating philosophies.
1
Uncertainty
1
The total range of events that may happen and produce risks (including both threats and opportunities) affecting a project (Uncertainty = threats + opportunities.)
2
All events, both positive and negative whose probabilities of occurrence are neither 0% nor 100%. Uncertainty is a distinct characteristic of the project environment.
1
Strategic Risk
1
A risk for which the potential impact threatens a project objective, even if the probability of occurrence is low or risk matrix severity rating is within screening thresholds. In projects, these risks are generally funded through management reserves.
1
TACTICAL RISK
1
Risk for which the potential impact does not significantly threaten an overall project objective or have a significant potential impact on enterprise, portfolio or other higher objectives or plans beyond the project level.
1
Risk Management goal
1
Risk Management is designed to reduce the risk caused by uncertainty.
1
Range estimating
1
A formalized risk analysis technology that synergistically combines Pareto’s law to identify the relatively few critical elements, heuristics governing the assignment of probabilistic ranges to such elements, and Monte Carlo Simulation to provide decision making information quickly and at reasonable effort.
1
CONTRACT, COST PLUS CONTRACTS
1
In cost plus contracts the contractor agrees to furnish to the client services and material at actual cost, plus an agreed upon fee for these services. This type of contract is employed most often when the scope of services to be provided is not well defined.
1
methods of estimating algorithms:
1
There are five major methods of estimating algorithms:
Factored
End‐Product Unit
Capacity Factor
Physical Dimension
Parametric
1
Factored Estimates
Ratio or factored estimating methods are used in situations where the total cost of an item or facility can be reliably estimated from the cost of a primary component. Two of the most popular types of this method are the Lang and Hand Factors. Both the Lang and Hand Factors are based on the cost of equipment in a process plant. The Lang Factor is a ratio of the equipment cost to the total installed plant cost. The Hand Factor is a ratio of the individual equipment item cost to the direct field cost of the installed item, excluding instrumentation.
The Hand Factor does not account for project indirect costs.
1
End‐Product Unit Estimate
1
This method is used when the estimator has enough historical data available from similar projects torelate the end‐product units (capacity units) of a project to its construction costs.
1
Capacity Factor Method
1
A capacity‐factored estimate is one in which the cost of a new facility is derived from the cost of a similar facility of a known (but usually different) capacity.
1
Parametric Method
1
A parametric estimate comprises cost estimating relationships (CERs) and other parametric estimating functions that provide logical and repeatable relationships between independent variables, such as design parameters or physical characteristics and the dependent variable, cost. A very simple example of this would be a highway where the concrete, reinforcing, and finishing are of constant cross section and the only input needed to calculate the quantities is length.
1
attributes that make a good code of accounts
1
There are four attributes that make a good code of accounts
Usage: The code of accounts must be designed in a way that serves the stakeholders needs.
Content: The amount of content that can be included in a code is limitless, but it must be restricted to a level that does not become burdensome to the users.
Structure and Format: Structure and format increases usability and providing definitions of all elements in a reference dictionary or similar document improves clarity.
Standardization: A consistent coding structure on all projects assists users and provides a better historical record.
1
BENCHMARKING
1
A measurement and analysis process that compares practices, processes, and relevant measures to those of a selected basis of comparison (i.e., the benchmark) with the goal of improving performance.
1
Which are the main Estimating Processes and Practices
1
Planning the Estimate
Estimating Methodologies
Quantification
Costing
Pricing
Estimate Conditioning
Risk Evaluation and
Contingency Determination
Estimate Documentation
Estimate Reconciliation
Estimate Review and
Validation
Estimate Reporting
Estimate Closeout
1
The initial step in estimating is to prepare a plan to go forward. The major steps are to:
1
Determine the purpose of the estimate
Determine the needs of the stakeholders
Determine the scope
Identify responsibilities
Prepare a timeline.
1
WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE
1
Framework for organizing and ordering the activities that makes up a project. Systematic approach to reflect a top-down product oriented hierarchy structure with each lower level providing more detail and smaller elements of the overall work.
1
The selection of estimating methodologies depends on
1
The selection of estimating methodologies depends on the level of scope definition, the time available to prepare the estimate, the purpose of the estimate, and the resources and tools available for the estimating effort.
1
what is Take‐off
1
a specific type of quantification that is a measurement and listing of quantities of materials from drawings in order to support the estimate costing process and/or to support the material procurement process
1
BATTERY LIMIT
1
Comprises one or more geographic boundaries, imaginary or real, enclosing a plant or unit being engineered and/or erected, established for the purpose of providing a means of specifically identifying certain portions of the plant, related groups of equipment, or associated facilities