A. Enterprise Risk Flashcards
what is risk?
condition in which there exists a quantifiable dispersion in the possible outcomes from any activity
the combination of the probability of an event and its consequences
risk in business is the chance that future events or results may not be as expected
what are downside/upside risks?
downside: purely bad, adverse outcome
upside: results better than expected, favourable outcome
what is two way risk?
sometimes called speculative risk
actual result could be better or worse than forecast
what is uncertainty?
arises from ignorance and a lack of information
why incur risk?
- INCREASE FINANCIAL RETURN:firms must be willing to take higher risks if they want to achieve higher returns
- TO GAIN COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE:generate higher returns a business may have to take more risk in order to be competitive
- generate more market share
what are the benefits of taking risks?
not limiting its activities or providing little or no competitive advantage
What are the following risks?
- political
- legal/litigation
- regulatory
- compliance
- political:due to political instability, external
- legal/litigation:legal action against business
- regulatory:changes in regulation affecting business
- compliance:non-congruence with the law resulting in fines/penalties
what are business risks?
strategic product commodity price product reputation operational contractural inadequacy fraud and employee malfeasance:
what are the following risks?
- strategic
- product
- commodity price
- product reputation
- operational
- contractural inadequacy
- strategic:business strategies will fail
- product:failure of new products or loss of interest in existing products
- commodity price:rise in commodity prices
- product reputation:change in a product’s reputation or image
- operational:business operations may be inefficient or business changes may fail
- contractural inadequacy:terms of a contract do not fully cover a business against all potential outcomes
what is economic risk?
changes in the economy an affect business
e.g.inflation, unemployment rates, international trade relations
what were the 6 contributing factors to the credit crunch?
- US sub-prime mortgage lending
- CDOs. i.e collateralised debt obligations
- Debt rating organisations
- Banks’ financial structure
- Credit default swaps
- Risk takers
what were the 5 implications of the credit crunch?
- the collapse of major financial institutions
- the credit crunch
- government intervention
- recession and ‘austerity measures’
- problems refinancing government debt
describe US sub-prime mortgages contributing factor
low interest rates to stimulate growth
relaxed mortgage criteria
-sub-prime mortgages’ for those even with high default risk and taking out adjustable rates
1/5 in 2005 were sub prime
inflationary pressure caused interest rates to rise
mortgage owners pay higher rate and leads to defaults
boom in house prices came to an end and house prices started falling
describe CDO contributing factor
selling on debt in the form of CDOs
insurance for mortgage companies
others shared risk of SPM
3 tier structure:
Tier 1: senior or investment grade which is low risk but with a low return
Tier 2: mezzanine tranche medium risk and return
Tier 3: equity tranche with highest risk and return
money received on mortgages used to pay tier 1 bond holders meaning less left for 2 and 3, with 3 suffering first and creating a waterfall effect
describe debt rating organisations contributing factor
CDO bonds credit rates for risk
lack of understanding or too much faith in purchasers
allocated low risk credit rating giving people confidence in investing
regulatory failure
describe bank’s financial structure as a contributing factor
banks are highly geared with less than 10% of asset value covered by equity
loss in asset value can wipe out equity account
banks found themselves in a position with negative equity
describe bank’s credit default swaps as a contributing factor
alternative to CDOs
lenders could purchase insurance on sub-prime debt through credit default swaps or CDSs
these purchases were first to suffer when default levels increased
describe risk takers as a contributing factor
taking risks they didn’t understand
Describe the implication of collapse of major financial institutions due to the credit crunch
some very large financial institutions went bust and got into serious trouble thus needing bailouts:
- Lehman Brothers biggest bankruptcy in history
- government put together $85bn bailout for AIG
- BOE lent Northern Rock £27bn in collapse
Describe the implication of the credit crunch
banks couldn’t raise sufficient finance
lots of bad debt and low confidence
banks became reluctant to lend leading to liquidity on money markets
harder to refinance loans causing major problems
Describe the implication of government intervention
governments felt compelled to intervene and inject money for liquidity purposes
used a mixture of loans, guarantees and the purchase of equity
central banks tried to raise the amount of lending by cutting interest rates but if they’re too low have to resort to QE
Feb2020: QE programme that cost £200bn
many governments found themselves with huge levels of debt with the corresponding need to repay high levels of interest as well as repay the debt
what is quantitative easing?
CB buys assets using financial assets such as government and corporate bongs using money it has created out of thin air
the institutions selling these assets will have increased liquidity thus boosting money supply
Describe the implication of recession and ‘austerity measures’
credit crunch implications lead to a recession in many countries
fall in taxes but raise in govt spending so need to cut back on spending to avoid higher levels of national debt
Describe the implication of problems refinancing government debt?
In 2010/2011 some countries tried to refinance national debt by issuing bonds:
- Spanish government needed to raise more borrowing as debts reached maturity, also needed to cut spending which affected public sector and lead to tax hikes and pension freeze
- Greece government had shorter maturity period on bonds than countries like the UK
Other countries needed IMF bailout e.g Greece, UK and Ireland from the EU
What is financial risk?
risk of a change in a financial condition such as an exchange rate, interest rate, credit ration of a customer or price of a good
what are the main types of financial risk?
currency political credit interest rate gearing
explain the following financial risks: currency political credit interest rate gearing
currency:fluctuation in exchange rate
political:arising from government actions
credit:non-payment by customers
interest rate:risk that interest rates change
gearing:in the way a business is financed (debt vs equity)
what is technology risk?
that technology changes will occur that either present new opportunities to businesses or on the down-side make their existing processes obsolete or inefficient
what is cyber risk?
risk of financial loss, disruption or damage to an organisation caused by issued with the information technology systems they use
what is environmental risk?
risk from changes in the environment e.g. natural disasters or climate change
for what type of companies is environmental risk an important factor?
when deciding policy premiums as they can severely alter the results of insurance businesses
what changes in the environment can affect environmental risk?
factors we can control e.g. oil spill, pollution
factors we can’t directly control e.g. climate change, global warming
what is reputation risk?
downside as the better the reputation of the business, the more risk there is of losing that reputation
what is fraud risk?
operational business risk
vulnerability of an organisation to fraud
need to have strong controls
controllable risk
what does the size of fraud risk depend on?
the probability of fraud occurring
the size of the losses if fraud does occur
how can fraud risk be managed?
fraud prevention:ensuring that the opportunities to commit fraud are minimised
fraud detection and deterrence: identify fraud after it has occurred so employees deterred from performing fraud
what could cause corporate reputation risk?
environmental performance
social performance
health and safety performance
why is reputation risk harder to control?
some services outsourced e.g. clothing manufacturing so might not know enough about practices e.g. sweat shops
what is employee malfeasance risk?
doing wrong or committing and offence
- making false representations
- failing to comply with requirements
what are some risks from international operations?
culture litigation credit items in transit financial risks
what are the following international operations risks: culture litigation credit items in transit financial risks
culture: culture clash, lack of local knowledge
litigation:may not understand legislation well so more risk of breaching it
credit:controlling credit risk in overseas operations, harder to chase debt
items in transit:damaged or lost in transit
financial risks:foreign exchange risks, interest rate risks
what is risk management?
the process of understanding and managing the risks that the organisation is inevitably subject to in attempting to achieve its corporate objectives
what is the traditional view of risk management?
avoid downside risk
what is the new approach of risk management?
benefiting from upside risk