5.1.1 - Elections - General Elections, Midterms, and the Electoral College Flashcards
(21 cards)
Seven stages of a Pres election
1) Invisible primary
2) Primaries and caucuses
3) Choosing VEEPs
4) National party conventions
5) General election campaign
6) Election day
7) Electoral college voting
1 - Invisible primary - Who announces, what does this do, what happens as part of this, what type of debates, when
- Candidates announcements
- Increasing name recognition
- Fundraising
- Intra-party TV debates
- Occurs a calendar year before an election
2 - Primaries and caucuses
- Show popular support for candidates
- Choose delegates to attend national party conventions
- Jan/Feb to early June
3 - Choosing VEEPs
- Pres candidate announces choice of running mate
- Occurs some days/weeks before a convention
4 - National party conventions
- Confirms Pres and VEEP candidates
- Approves party platforms
- Acceptance speech delivered by Pres candidate
- Usually occurs in July/August for about 4 days
5 - General election campaign
- Campaign between the candidates of the various parties
- Occurs for the rest of the year until the first week of Nov
6 - Election day
- Registered voters go to the polls
- Occurs on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of Nov
7 - Electoral college voting
- Electors vote in their state capitals to choose Pres and VEEP
- Occurs on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of Dec
What is the electoral college?
The institution established by the FFs to elect the Pres and VEEP indirectly - electors cast their ballots at the state capital
Examples of electoral college going against the popular vote?
Trump 2016 and Gore 2000
How does the electoral college work?
Each state is awarded a certain number of Electoral College votes equal to that state’s representation in Congress - to win a Pres candidate needs 270 votes
What is the winner-takes-all rule and where are its exceptions?
The winner takes all rule is the rule that the most popular Pres candidate in a state takes all of that state’s votes - the exceptions are in Maine and Nebraska where the Electoral College votes are handed out proportionally with two for the winner and the rest to the winner in each congressional district
Example of close electoral college results?
In 2016 if 77,000 Trump voters had voted for Clinton in Michigan, Pensilvania, and Wisconsin, Clinton would have won - in 2020 if 60,000 Biden supporters had switched to Trump in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump would have won the election
Examples of the electoral college being in need of reform - How many votes to win one EC vote in CF vs WY?
The system is skewed in favour of smaller population states which are most won by Reps - EG in California, Biden needed 308,000 votes to win each electoral college vote whereas in Wyoming Trump needed just 120,000 for each electoral college vote - the EC does not uphold the democratic principle of one person one vote
What are midterm elections?
Midterms occur in the middle of a Pres’ term and see a third of the Senate and the whole House up for reelection
Midterms historically
- Historically the Pres’ party does not do well at the midterms - loses on average 27 House seats (2022 Dems lost only 9 House seats) and 3.6 Seante seats (Dems didn’t lose any in 2022 and even gained one)
- Last massive win was Bush in 2002 which saw him gain 8 House seats and 2 Senate seats off the back of 9/11
What is redistricting?
Redistricting is the process of drawing up new district lines (can easily turn into gerrymandering) - for the 2020 census Dems have upped their gerrymandering efforts - Rep bias down to 2-3 points from 5-6 points
How does incumbency advantage influence midterms, and what has incumbency reelection rate averaged over the last 40 years?
- Incumbents get way more media time and have more name recognition and find it easier to raise funds (House incumbents outspent their challengers 7 fold in 2020)
- Over the last 40 years incumbency reelection rate has averaged 95%
2022 Midterms - Incumbency reelection rate?
94.5% House
100% Senate
2022 Midterms - How many Rep candidates accepted the results of the 2020 election?
Of the 502 Reps on the ticket for reelection in 2022, only 31% accepted the results of the 2020 election
What was the impact of gerrymandering on the amount of ‘highly competitive’ seats in the 2022 midterms?
The number of ‘highly competitive’ seats in the 2022 midterms dropped from 46 to 40 of the 435 House seats up for grabs - shows the partisan nature of gerrymandering
