5.1 Probability Part 1

Question 1

How do you “set up” a simulation to receive full credit on a free-response problem?

Answer 1

1. Assign certain numbers as successes and the rest are fail (based on the probability of what you are simulating). 2. Randomly select however many numbers you need to represent one trial. 3. Record how many successes you get. 4. Repeat many, many times.

Question 2

How do you make a conclusion based on a simulation?

Answer 2

You give a probability of that event happening by chance alone (usually you count how many dots are above or including your event). If the probability is low (<5%), you have good evidence that something beyond chance is at play (usually stated in the problem as what you were investigating).

Question 3

What should you look for in a “good” interpretation of probability?

Answer 3

“many, many” As you do more trials, the proportion of “successes” will approach the probability.

Question 4

If you get heads three times in a row, what is the probability that the next toss will be heads?

Answer 4

Still 50%.

Question 5

How do you describe how to use a “table of random digits” instead of a RNG to pick numbers from 1-100 (for a simulation or an SRS).

Answer 5

For #1-100, assign your successes and fails including 00 instead of 100. Then say “pick n 2-digit numbers” instead of saying “pick n numbers from 1-100”