5.1 Democracy + participation: electoral systems Flashcards
How often are presidential elections held?
Every 4 years
What are the constitutional requirements for being a president?
Candidates must be 35+
Must have been born in the USA
Must have been a resident in the USA for 14 years
Can’t have served 2 terms
What informal requirements must a president have?
- Endorsement of one of the major parties
- Fundraising skills
- Appropriate political experience
- Organisational and communications skills
Who were the main Democratic candidates for 2020 (amongst others)?
Biden
Kamal Harris
Pete Buttigieg
Elizabeth Warren
What 3 main factors must a president consider when choosing their running mate?
- Balancing the ticket – Biden and Harris
- Party unity – unusual but sometimes choose a running mate who was a rival in the primaries eg Raegan chose Bush Snr
- Government experience
What are the formal functions of national party conventions?
- Formal casting of votes by delegates for their preferred presidential candidates
- Announcement of the candidates VP
- Debate on the parties’ policies
How have the formal functions of the NPCs been undermined?
- Decisions about candidate nomination have been made during primaries and caucuses so instead NPCs confirm NOT choose the candidate
- Parties avoid heated debate on policy as media portrayal is important
What do NPCs do today?
- Help party rifts
- Launch the campaign
- Give media attention
How many TV presidential debates are held?
Three 90-minute presidential debates
What recent TV debate was crucial for a presidential candidate?
Al Gore’s ‘woeful performance’ threw away a comfortable lead in the polls – a key factor for him losing
Are TV debates important?
Rarely pivotal but more there to confirm what the voter already knew
Just 20% of households watched the TV debate in 2012
What is the McGovern Fraser Commission and when was it established?
1968 – reformed the nomination process
How did the McGovern Fraser Commission alter the nomination process x5?
- Before 1968 candidate was picked at NPCs, now NPCs are a ‘coronation’
- Before 1968 NPCs were influenced by ‘men in grey suits’ in ‘smoke-filled rooms’, now party bosses have lost control and far more open and democratic
- Before 1968 established party connections gave advantage, now possible for insurgents eg Trump
- Before 19688 finance wasn’t important, now it is a key factor in primary campaign
- Before 1968 there was peer-review, now there are more important factors
When is the invisible primary?
The period (1-2 years) before the US primary season begins
What do candidates use the invisible primary for x3?
To gain name recognition, raise funds, increase media profile
What 6 key tests, according to Hadley, does the invisible primary revolve around?
- The psychological test - character
- The staff test – recruiting professionals – Obama
- The strategy test – policy ideas – didn’t work for Yang
- The money test – fundraising - Bloomberg
- The media test – building a profile – Obama
- The constituency test – attracting loyal volunteers
What does Mike Bloomberg demonstrate?
Ex-mayor of New York, billionaire
He had lack of campaign during invisible primary so despite raising $600 million for TV debates in super-Tuesday states, money is not always decisive factor
How do states choose presidential candidates since 1960?
Primaries and caucuses
What is a caucus?
A party meeting held in a particular state to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of candidates
Which state famously uses a caucus?
Iowa (first state in the primary season calendar)
Who won the Democratic Iowa Caucus?
Pete Buttigieg, Biden came 4th
What is a primary election?
A straightforward election held in states to demonstrate the preferred presidential candidate
Which state is the first to hold a primary, after the Iowa caucus?
New Hampshire
What are the two distinctions for the types of primary election?
- Open, closed, or modified primaries
- Proportional v WTA primaries
Who can vote in open, closed, and modified primaries?
Open primary = any registered voter can choose to vote in either party’s primary
Close primary = only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican primary and vv
Modified primary = only registered party supporters can vote but independents can additionally vote in either
What are the advantages of primaries opposed to caucuses?
- Secret ballot
- Turnout is higher
- Open and modified primaries open up participation
What are the disadvantages of primaries as opposed to caucuses?
- Don’t offer debate
- Turnout still low (2012 GOP primaries for New York turnout was 2% of eligible voters
- Open primaries encourage ‘wreckers’ for another party
What is ‘Super Tuesday’?
A group of states, mainly southern, hold their primaries on the same day, creating a ‘regional primary’
What is ‘front loading’?
The days which primaries and caucuses held are grouped together at the front of the year
What issues are associated with the US nomination process and what are the suggestions for reform x5?
- Length of process – reduce the length of the invisible primary
- Cost – reforms of campaign finance laws
- Lack of peer review – get senior figures to draw up a short list pre-primary
- Scheduling – One day national primary for all
- Low and unrepresentative turnout – encourage all states to use open primaries
How many electoral college votes does each state receive?
The number of senators (2 per state) plus the number of House Reps (variable)
How many ECV does California have?
2+53 = 55
How many ECV does Wyoming have?
2 + 1 = 3
How many Electoral college votes in total + how many needed to win?
538
270 needed to win
What did Trump win by in 2016?
He beat Hilary by 306 to 232
How does the system work?
The electorate votes by FPTP with the popular vote being counted in each state and the winning candidate receives all the EC votes for that state
Example of a time when the winner lost the EC but won the popular vote?
2016 Clinton won the popular vote by 48.2% to Trumps 46.1% but Trump won the electoral college vote
Same happened in 2000
What is a faithless elector + example?
An elector ignoring the will of the people
EG Barabara Lett-Simmons from District of Columbia who abstained in 2000
How many faithless electors were there in 2016?
7 faithless electors – highest number ever
What are the criticisms of the electoral college?
- EC is undemocratic and outdated in 21st century
- EC ignores the will of the people – ‘faithless electors’ and winner of the popular vote losing
- Campaigning is too focused on battleground states
- Over-represents small states
What are the counterpoints to the criticisms of the electoral college?
- Constitution should be respected along with the Founding Fathers
- Faithless electors have never overturned the result and winner of popular vote losign hasn’t happened for 100 years since 2000
- Even with reform, campaigning would be focused on states with largest populations
- Federalism – all about compromise
What are the strengths of the EC?
- Protects and reinforces federalism
- Produces a clear result giving the president a mandate
- Usually, uncontroversial
What are the suggestions for reforms to the electoral college?
- Direct election – abolish the EC and replacing it with a ‘one person, one vote’ bt requires constitutional change
- Proportional system, ECVs allocated in direct proportion to the percentage of votes won in each state eg Pennsylvania 20 ECVs a candidate receiving 40% of vote receives 8 ECVs
- Maine system – ECVs allocated on a district-by-district basis
- Automatic Plan
What is the automatic plan?
Used in half of all states
Eradicates electors to prevent ‘faithless electors’
ECVs awarded to candidate directly
Why did Trump lose the 2020 election?
- Campaign: Trump’s ratings decreased by 3% after the national party conventions, Trumps attacking style and Biden outspent Trump by $938 mil to $596 mil
- Swing states: Biden flipped five eg Wisconsin
- Trump’ mishandling of Covid
- Growth in black voters and Trumps inability to condemn white supremacists
- Economy viewed as most important issue and was derailed by Covid
- Libertarian party receiving votes that would otherwise be GOP
What % of the popular vote did Biden win + how many ECVs?
51% and 306 ECVs to Trumps 47% and 232 ECVs
What was the turnout of the 2020 election?
66.7% (highest turnout in 100 years)
How much money was spent on the presidential campaign?
$6.5 billion
How much money was spent on the 2020 election in total?
$14 billion
Give 3 examples of presidents who only had one term:
Carter – faced effective campaigner Reagan (and Ted Kennedy in own party) + poor economy
George H Bush – faced highly charismatic Clinton, economy was poor, Ross Perot the independent stole many conservative votes
Trump
What is the overall “win rate” for incumbent presidents?
70%
Why are US presidential elections so expensive?
- Length of the campaign
- Require lots of resources eg professional staff, offices
- High cost of TV advertising
- Loopholes
What are the three main sources of money for presidential elections?
- Candidates can spend unlimited amounts of own money eg Mike Bloomberg spending $600 million of own money during primaries
- Candidates can raise money from donors
- Since FECA, presidential candidates are entitled to a grant to cost cover of campaign ($100 million in 2020) and matching funds for the primaries/caucuses ($50 million)
What 2 major laws have attempted to control spending?
- Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) 1974
2. Bi-partisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) 2001
What 2 things did FECA do?
- Introduced matching funds for the primaries and the general election campaign itself – in return candidates must accept a spending limit
- Limited donations from individuals and PACs - $2800 from an individual and $5,000 from a PAC
What is a PAC?
Political Action Committees – organisations that collect and donate money to candidates running for election
What 2 things did the BCRA do?
- Banned ‘soft money’ – the loophole that money raised spent to “educate” voters but not using words “vote for…”
- Banned issue ads paid for by outside groups
Explain the Citizens United v FEC case:
2010
Conservative group Citizens United made a film called “Hilary the Movie”
FEC claimed it was an attack ad and could not be screened under BCRA rules
Citizens United took FEC to Supreme Court and won, with SC ruling that to ban adverts paid for by outside groups was a breach of 1st amendment (freedom of expression)
What did the Citizens United case lead to the emergence of?
Super PACs
What are Super PACs?
‘Independent expenditure-only committees’
What is the difference between PACs and Super PACSs?
PACs – donate money directly to candidates so limits apply
Super PACs – don’t coordinate their activities so can raise/spend unlimited sums from companies, unions, groups, and individuals
Examples of recent Super PACs:
Priorities USA Action supported Obama and then Clinton in 2016
Great America Alliance supported Trump
How many active super PACs in 2020 and how much did they raise?
2,000 active super PACs in 2020
Combined they raised $3.4 billion
Reasons further campaign reforms are required:
- Neither FECA or BCRA have worked
- Loopholes I FECA and BCRA mean that is possible for best-funded candidate to ‘buy victory’
- Wealthy investors may expect a return on their investment – candidates have a mandate to donors rather than electorate
Reasons further campaign reforms are not required:
- Spending is a form of freedom of expression
- Election spending enhances democracy by increasing participation
- No evidence that money can “buy” you victory eg Clinton out-spent Trump in 2016
- Obama proved its possible to raise large sums from small donations
Describe the McCutcheon v FEC case
2014
5-4 ruling that struck down campaign finance limits
Since FECA there had been a cap on total amount a donor could gve to candidates and parties in 1 election cycle = $123,000
McCutcheon argued this violated 1st amendment and SC agreed – cap was ruled unconstitutional
What is the success rate for incumbents seeking elections?
97% of Congressmen/women and 90% of Senators
What are the term limits for members of Congress?
There are none, so many stay in office for decades
What is a competitive district in the House?
A district that was won at the previous election by a margin of less than 10%
What % of the 435 House districts are ‘competitive’?
Only 10%
Why are there so many safe seats?
Due to gerrymandered districts
What is the ‘coat-tails’ effect
Only an issue when congressional elections are held in presidential election years
Ability of a popular presidential candidate to attract voters for other candidates on the same party ticket
On average how many seats does the President lose during mid-terms?
20 House seats and 4 Senate seats
What was midterm election turnout in 2018?
49% of eligible voters turned out – highest for 100 years
How many seats did the Democrats gain in the 2018 mid-terms?
Over 40
When does redistricting occur + what is it?
Every 10 years following the US census – number of House members allocated to each state is subject to reallocation and then states redraw their electoral maps
Who is tasked with redistricting?
Some states choose neutral bodies eg California
Most states use their state legislature
What is controversial about redistricting?
The state legislature redraws the electoral map in a way that protects its own incumbents
What factors affect the outcome of congressional elections?
- Referendum on the president Eg A 2014 poll showed 52% of voters intended to send a message to Obama
- Local issues ‘all politics is local’ – Tip O’Neill
- Individual performance using pork barrel politics
- Turnout levels – midterm electorate tends to be overwhelmingly white, old and male favouring the Republican party
- Coattail effect
What variations in voting procedure are there?
- Early voting – in 2020 38 states allowed this
- Postal vote – in 2020 every state did this due to Covid
- Same-day registration – 20 states allow it
What is the issue with states requiring voter ID?
When physical ID is required, it disproportionately affects young and poor voters who may not have passport or driver’s license
Issue in deep south states
Why is turnout for US elections so low?
- Practical barriers to voting
- Belief that one’s vote doesn’t matter
- Frequency and number of elections
What are the practical barriers to voting?
- Lack of automatic registration (65% are registered compared to UK where it’s done automatically by state) – although in 2015 Oregon and California introduced automatic registration
- Voter ID laws
Why do some Americans believe their vote doesn’t matter?
- WTA system over PR
- Gerrymandering creating safe seats eg Congressman John Lewis of Georgie is unopposed in elections
- Safe states often ignored
- States that run primaries/caucuses later have lower turnout
How does frequency and number of elections lead to low turnout?
Voter fatigue from the ‘constant campaign’ can cause voters to lose interest
Plus, length of presidential election campaigns increased exacerbating the issue
What are the possible reforms for increased turnout?
- PR to replace WTA in all elections
- National popular vote to replace EC
- Universal automatic registration
- Scrapping voter ID laws
What liberal pressure group campaign for electoral reform?
Common Cause
What electoral reforms are there x7?
- Reform of candidate nomination process
- Campaign finance reform
- Redistricting reform
- Term limits for members of Congress
- Reform of the electoral college
- Introduction of PR
- Automatic registration
