4.2 Political Context Flashcards
What is the Valence Factor in voting behaviour?
The Valence Factor refers to how successful or unsuccessful a government is seen by voters. People often vote based on whether they believe the government has performed well rather than focusing on specific policies.
How does governing competence influence elections?
If a government is seen as competent in managing key issues like the economy, healthcare, and national security, voters are more likely to support them. If they are viewed as failing, people tend to vote for an alternative party.
Why do voters focus on a government’s overall performance rather than specific policies?
Individual policies can be complex, but a government’s general performance directly affects people’s daily lives. Many voters judge governments based on overall success or failure rather than analysing each policy in detail.
What was the key message of the 1979 Conservative campaign?
The slogan “Labour Isn’t Working” was used to highlight Labour’s economic failures during the Winter of Discontent. This made the Conservatives under Margaret Thatcher appear more competent and capable of handling the economy.
How did the 2008 financial crisis affect the 2010 General Election?
The financial crisis damaged Labour’s reputation, as many voters blamed them for the economic downturn. This helped the Conservatives, led by David Cameron, present themselves as the party of economic recovery and win the election.
Why was the 1997 General Election a landslide victory for Labour?
The Conservative government under John Major was seen as weak and divided, facing scandals and economic problems. Labour, under Tony Blair, presented itself as strong, modern, and capable, leading to a massive victory.
What caused the unexpected Labour defeat in the 1992 General Election?
Labour, led by Neil Kinnock, was expected to win but ran a weak and overconfident campaign. Meanwhile, John Major’s Conservatives convinced voters they were the safer choice, leading to Labour’s unexpected defeat.
Why did Boris Johnson win a large majority in the 2019 General Election?
Boris Johnson’s simple and direct campaign message—“Get Brexit Done”—made him appear strong and decisive. Meanwhile, Labour under Jeremy Corbyn seemed divided on Brexit, which led to a Conservative landslide victory.
How did Theresa May’s leadership affect the 2017 General Election?
Theresa May’s weak leadership and unpopular policies, such as the “dementia tax,” caused Labour to gain support under Jeremy Corbyn. Although the Conservatives still won, they lost their majority in Parliament.
What was the ‘dementia tax’ policy, and how did it impact voter behaviour?
The “dementia tax” proposed that elderly people needing long-term care at home would have to pay for it using the value of their property. This policy was highly unpopular and led to backlash against Theresa May’s leadership, weakening Conservative support in the 2017 election.
Why has the image and personality of a party leader become more important in elections?
Voters often choose a leader they see as strong, competent, and capable of governing. Leaders who appear decisive and in control tend to win elections, while those who seem weak, uninspiring, or out of touch often lose support.
How did Margaret Thatcher’s leadership influence the 1983 election?
Thatcher was known for her strong and determined leadership. She refused to back down on policies, famously saying, “The lady’s not for turning.” Her handling of the Falklands War (1982) also gained her public support. In contrast, her Labour opponent, Michael Foot, was seen as too intellectual and out of touch with ordinary voters.
How did David Cameron win the 2010 election?
Cameron presented himself as a modern and energetic leader, which helped him defeat Gordon Brown, who, despite being experienced, lacked charisma and struggled after the 2008 financial crisis. Cameron’s leadership led to a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government.
Why did Margaret Thatcher win the 1979 election?
Labour’s James Callaghan was seen as weak, especially during the Winter of Discontent (1978-79), when major strikes damaged the economy. Thatcher promised strong leadership and economic stability, leading to a Conservative victory.
What mistake did Neil Kinnock make in the 1992 election?
Kinnock, after losing to Thatcher in 1987, was confident about winning in 1992. However, his Sheffield Rally speech was seen as overconfident when he repeatedly shouted, “We’re all right! We’re all right!” This made voters prefer John Major’s stability over Kinnock’s enthusiasm, leading to Labour’s defeat.
How did Nick Clegg influence the 2010 election?
Clegg performed exceptionally well in the first-ever UK televised debates, boosting support for the Liberal Democrats, especially among young voters. This led to a hung parliament, forcing Cameron’s Conservatives to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, making Clegg Deputy Prime Minister.
How did Nigel Farage and UKIP impact the 2015 election?
Although UKIP only won one seat, Farage’s focus on immigration and Brexit put pressure on the Conservative Party. His influence led David Cameron to promise a Brexit referendum, which later resulted in the UK leaving the EU.
How did Nicola Sturgeon shape the 2015 Scottish election?
Sturgeon led a strong campaign for the Scottish National Party (SNP), which gained 40 extra seats, causing Labour to lose major support in Scotland.
How can a well-run campaign influence election results?
A strong campaign can reinforce support, attract undecided voters, and improve a leader’s public image. It can be especially important in close elections where voters are still making up their minds.
How did John Major’s campaign strategy in 1992 help him win?
Instead of using traditional stage-managed events, Major used a soapbox campaign, where he gave speeches in open areas and engaged directly with voters. This made him appear down-to-earth and approachable, helping the Conservatives win an unexpected victory.
How did Labour’s 1983 campaign fail despite having a detailed manifesto?
Labour’s manifesto was seen as too radical, leading to it being called “the longest suicide note in history.” Meanwhile, Thatcher’s popularity, boosted by her handling of the Falklands War (1982), made her the clear choice for voters.
How did Theresa May’s 2017 campaign hurt the Conservatives?
May’s campaign was widely seen as robotic and uninspiring. She avoided live debates and struggled to defend her unpopular “dementia tax” policy. Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn ran a lively and engaging campaign, increasing Labour’s support.
Do election campaigns influence results?
Yes, they can. Campaigns help persuade undecided voters, especially as party loyalty has declined. For example, Jeremy Thorpe’s strong campaign in 1974 increased the Liberal Party’s vote share by 11.8%.
Why do some argue that campaigns don’t have much influence?
Most voters already know who they will vote for before campaigns begin. In the 1950s and 1960s, class-based voting meant campaigns had little impact. Similarly, in the 2019 election, polling showed that most voters had made up their minds before the campaign started.
How did John Major’s 1992 campaign contrast with Neil Kinnock’s?
Major engaged directly with the public, while Kinnock’s stage-managed rally made him seem out of touch. Major’s approach helped the Conservatives win unexpectedly.
How did Harold Wilson’s campaign in 1964 show the limits of election campaigns?
Wilson ran a high-energy, modern campaign, presenting himself as charismatic like John F. Kennedy. However, Labour’s vote share only increased by 0.2%, showing that the campaign had little impact on the final result.
How did Jeremy Corbyn’s 2017 campaign affect Labour’s support?
Corbyn’s energetic rallies and promises like free university tuition helped Labour increase its support from below 30% to 40% by election day, preventing May from winning a strong majority.
What does Edward Heath’s 1970 campaign reveal about campaign effectiveness?
Heath’s campaign was boring and uninspiring, yet he still unexpectedly won. This suggests that other political factors, such as the economy or government performance, mattered more than the campaign itself.
What does the 2019 election tell us about the limits of campaigns?
While Johnson’s campaign was effective, polling showed that many voters had already made up their minds before it even started. This suggests that campaigning reinforced opinions rather than changing many votes.
How has voter turnout in general elections changed over time?
Voter turnout has declined compared to previous decades. The lowest turnout in modern times was in 2001 (59.4%), reflecting growing apathy. However, turnout increased to 68.8% in 2017, possibly due to polarising issues like Brexit and Labour’s youth-focused campaign under Jeremy Corbyn. In 2019, turnout dropped slightly to 67.3%, possibly due to the winter election making voting less convenient.
What factors influence voter turnout?
Age, class, political disengagement, and the significance of election issues all play a role. Younger and working-class voters have historically had lower participation rates, while major political events or clear policy differences can boost engagement.
What is a manifesto?
A manifesto is a document published by a political party before an election, outlining its key policies and commitments. While not every voter reads an entire manifesto, certain policies can influence public perception and election results.
How did Labour’s manifesto policies contribute to their defeats in 1987 and 1992?
In 1987, Labour’s nuclear disarmament policy was criticised by the Conservatives, who claimed it made Labour weak on defence. In 1992, Labour’s promise to increase public spending led to attacks that they could not be trusted with the economy. In both cases, these policies contributed to Conservative victories.
How did the 2017 Conservative manifesto weaken Theresa May’s campaign?
The manifesto included the unpopular “dementia tax” policy, which proposed that elderly homeowners should pay more for social care. This angered older voters, a key Conservative demographic. May’s failure to clearly explain or defend the policy led to backlash, damaging her campaign.
What were some key Labour policies in the 2017 election that helped them perform better than expected?
Labour’s manifesto promised to abolish university tuition fees, attracting young voters and increasing turnout among first-time voters. They also focused on taxing the top 5% of earners to fund public services, which had broad appeal.
Why did Labour’s 2019 manifesto fail to attract voters?
Labour focused too much on Brexit, proposing a renegotiation and a second referendum instead of clear domestic policies. This alienated voters who wanted Brexit resolved. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson’s simple “Get Brexit Done” message was more effective, leading to a decisive Conservative victory.
What is instrumental voting?
Instrumental voting is when people base their vote on specific policies that directly impact their lives, rather than overall party competence. Voters prioritise issues such as taxation, healthcare, education, and employment when deciding who to support.
How do taxation policies influence voting behaviour?
Higher earners often support lower tax policies, making them more likely to vote Conservative. Lower-income voters tend to favour parties like Labour, which promise higher public spending on services like healthcare and education.
How do parties use instrumental voting to attract different groups?
Political parties tailor policies to appeal to specific demographics. For example, in 2017, Labour targeted young voters with promises of free tuition and housing reforms, while in 2019, Conservatives focused on older voters by promising increased NHS investment and stricter immigration policies.
How do different issues shape election outcomes?
Elections reflect the issues most important to voters at the time. During economic crises, voters prioritise stability and financial security, often supporting parties with strong economic policies. In contrast, during periods of social change, issues like healthcare and education may take precedence.
