4.1 Voting behaviour and Elections Flashcards
✅ Yes, elections are shaped by wider trends and long-term factors
Class and partisanship have declined
E: Class dealignment + partisan dealignment since 1970s
EX: 2024 — working-class Reform voters, middle-class Labour voters
L: Social identities no longer predict voting behaviour reliably
Valence and competence now dominate
E: 2024 — Sunak’s net approval -51%, Labour seen as “safe and competent”
EX: Labour’s lead based on Tory failures (Partygate, Truss, economic chaos)
L: Elections are lost by incompetence, not won by policies
Rational choice voting has risen
E: 2024 — renters, mortgage holders leaned Labour due to housing crisis
EX: 2019 — Leave voters (74%) backed Tories, despite social class
L: Voters assess “what’s in it for me” based on key issues
🧾 Mini Conclusion (Yes side): Long-term factors like social class have declined — valence, leadership and competence are now more decisive.
❌ No, short-term factors and social identity still matter
Campaigns still shape outcomes
E: 2017 – Labour surge during campaign (“dementia tax” backlash)
EX: 2024 – Lib Dems’ campaign won 72 seats, Farage boosted Reform to 14%
L: Strategic targeting, momentum shifts and gaffes can change results
Age, education and region still influence voting
E: 2024 — 18–24s: 41% Labour, 18% Green / 60+: 40% Tory, 16% Reform
EX: Educated = more Labour/Lib Dem; lower education = Reform/Tory
L: Socio-demographics still shape electoral outcomes
Media shapes public perception
E: 2019 — Corbyn attacked heavily in right-wing press
EX: 2024 — Labour backed by The Sun, FT, Sunday Times
L: Traditional + social media frame leaders, shape valence and image
🧾 Mini Conclusion (No side): While class may decline, social groups, media and campaigns still play a key role — voting is complex.
✅ Yes, leaders and competence decide elections
Voters judge leadership valence
E: 2024 — Starmer not loved, but trusted vs Sunak (-51% approval)
EX: 1997 — Blair seen as competent, Major weak and divided
L: Trust in leadership = electoral credibility
Leadership image drives swing votes
E: 2010 — “I agree with Nick” gave Clegg a debate bounce
EX: 2019 — Johnson framed as strong on Brexit, Corbyn unpopular
L: Personality can overshadow policies
Competence wrecks or builds party image
E: Truss mini-budget destroyed economic trust; Partygate ruined Tories
EX: 1992-97 — Tories never recovered from Black Wednesday
L: Governing competence defines party fortunes
🧾 Mini Conclusion (Yes side): Leaders aren’t everything, but public perception of them — and their competence — can make or break elections
❌ No, policies, media, and social identities are also crucial
Campaigns + manifestos shape voter decisions
E: 2017 — Labour surged on anti-austerity, tuition fees, NHS funding
EX: 1997 — “Tough on crime…” + class size pledges won middle class
L: Clear, appealing policies matter — especially when leaders aren’t loved
Voters don’t always buy the leader image
E: Brown mocked in 2010, but some polls rated him as most capable
EX: Corbyn 2017: popular among youth despite media attacks
L: Policies + authenticity sometimes outweigh personality
Social factors interact with policy perception
E: 2024 — Muslim voters defected over Gaza ceasefire delay
EX: Reform’s appeal strongest among older, less educated C2/DE men
L: Social identity still filters how policies and leaders are judged
🧾 Mini Conclusion (No side): Leadership matters — but so do the issues, identities, and campaign events that shape how leaders are perceived.
✅ Yes, some elections are more about rejection than choice
Governments lose elections when trust collapses
E: 2024 — Tories collapsed due to scandals, Partygate, Truss chaos
EX: 1997 — Black Wednesday doomed Tory competence image
L: Opposition wins by default when trust is gone
Policy similarities = voters vote against, not for
E: 2024 — Little tax policy difference, but mass anti-Tory sentiment
EX: 2010 — All promised cuts; anger at Labour led to coalition
L: When parties converge, elections become referendums on incumbents
Tactical voting hurts unpopular parties
E: 2024 — Lib Dems + Labour coordinated via targeting and tactical votes
EX: Tories won just 30/91 SE seats, down from 74 in 2019
L: Desire to remove incumbents boosts rivals — even without mass appeal
🧾 Mini Conclusion (Yes side): Voters often reject the past more than they embrace the future — especially when scandals erode trust.
