4.1 - Social Factors Flashcards
What is the decline of class-based voting known as?
Partisan dealignment.
Why was there a rise of partisan dealignment in the 1970’s?
Voting choices have been made on governing competence, salience of core issues (issue voting) and economic self-interest.
The Winter of Discontent.
How did Margaret Thatcher deal with Cardiff in the 1979 GE?
A Conservative campaign was launched in Cardiff to disassociate the party from being too middle class.
What did Margaret Thatcher focus on in her campaign in Cardiff?
Controlling inflation
Confronting trade union power.
What did Margaret Thatcher’s Cardiff campaign do in terms of voter bases?
11% swing from C2 voters.
9% swing from DE voters.
Why did Corbyn make gains in AB voters?
Pro-Europeans wanting to punish the Conservatives for Brexit.
Why did May make gains in DE voters?
Pro-Brexiteers thought that the Conservatives would deliver a stronger Brexit.
Where does Labour do particularly well?
Big cities with ethnically diverse populations.
Major centres of industrial production.
How many seats changed parties in the 2017 General Election?
71 out of 650.
What areas of the country have generally decided General Elections?
London and the Midlands.
What has changed in Scotland regarding seats?
Traditionally, it was a Labour stronghold.
Recently, the SNP has completely overtaken the vote, winning 56 of 59 seats in the 2015 General Election.
In 2017, under Ruth Davidson, the Conservatives returned 13 of 59 seats to become the second largest party in Scotland.
(2023 UPDATE)
Seeing as the SNP looks to completely collapse, it is likely that Scotland returns to Labour.
What can generally be assumed about Scotland voting patterns?
Nothing, it is one of the most unstable and unpredictable places for the UK General Elections.
Why did the Conservatives see an increase in vote in the North?
People perceived their stance on immigration and Brexit to be tougher.
Why did Labour see an increase in vote share in the South?
A more consistent opposition to the Conservatives in the EU referendum.
Why have younger people tended to vote Labour?
The younger people are more likely to care about social justice and the environment and are therefore more likely to vote Labour, Liberal Democrat or Green.
Corbyn pledged to abolish tuition fees.
His idealistic commitment to resolve world problems through international governance.
What is the age most people are likely to switch from voting Labour to Conservative?
47.
What was the turnout for 18-24 year olds in the 2017 General Election?
5% of the population with a 54% turnout.
What was the turnout for 65+ year olds in the 2017 General Election?
18% of the population with a 71% turnout.
What is class dealignment?
People who are less likely to identify with a particular social class, so therefore less likely to expect to vote a certain way.
What is the non-white population of East Ham?
77%
How many of the top 75 ethnically diverse constituencies did the Conservatives hold?
5.
What was the massive change in the 2017 General Election regarding voting patterns and education?
The Conservatives made inroads into the lowest education bands, and Labour making inroads into the top education brackets.
Why did the voting patterns of the uneducated change in the 2017 General Election?
The Conservatives saw inroads into the uneducated as the uneducated saw the Conservatives as more likely to deliver on Brexit.
Why did the voting patterns of the educated change in the 2017 General Election?
Remainers commonly compromised the educated, and many people wanted to punish the Leave Conservative party for what they considered as Conservative insularity.
What was the influence of gender in General Elections from 1945 to 1980?
Women were more likely to vote Conservative.
Men were more likely to vote Labour.
Why was gender a social factor in elections from 1945 to 1980?
Labour’s association with male-dominated trade-unionism and its reputation for allowing inflation to spiral, damaging family finances, provided the Conservatives with a powerful opportunity to appeal to the housewives’ vote.
How has gender changed in elections since 1980?
The traditional lead has fallen, possibly due to the Conservative emphasis on strong national defence and a growing association with euroscepticism contrasted unfavourably on Labour’s desire to improve healthcare and education.
what is class dealignment theory
the process where individuals no longer identify themselves as belonging to a class and dont vote for the expected party based on their class.
=occurred to the chaning economy after the 70s -> service economy
class dealignment stat FOR
in 2019 the 42% of the working class voted conservative whilst just 33% voted labour.
class dealignment theory NO
42% of the middle class voted conservative whilst just 28% voted labour - the disparity is still there.
partisan dealignment stat YES
1979 - 81% of the elctorate voted for labour and Cons whilst in 2010 this was at 65%
economic voting model
voters are more likely to vote for a government that has managed the economy well or vica versa.
eg public anger in 1979 with the winter of discontent. or 2019 with the ‘get brexit done’ slogan by boris johnson.
rational choice theory
voters behave like consumers and vote by evaluating which is the most beneficial option to them and their interests. eg 1979 Margaret Thatcher won since people were disenchanted by the management of ‘sunny jim’ + ‘crisis what crisis’ and were facing the winter of discontent
public image theory
presidentialisation of british politics since 1979. voters perceptions of party leaders influence their voting.
eg brown v cameron and blair v major. televised tv debates contribute.
age stats
44% of over 65 year olds favoured conservatives whereas only 30% of under 25s did. people exhibit greater tendencies to vote conservative as they grow older as they have more property and assets to protect.
gender stats
historically women have favoured the conservatives due to the tory emphasis on family, stability and tradition. plus less likely to vote old labour as they did not do manual labour so therefore not in a trade union.
however, New labour’s promise of free nursery places and more female job opportunities blurred the line
2010 - 30% 18-24 voted cons and over 65 was 42%. there is no substantial difference anymore.
ethnicity stats
more inclined to vote labour who are more multi-cultural and anti-discriminatory in policy.
2010 labour 60% and 16% conservative
region
urban areas + the north = labour
south rural areas = conservative.
liverpool walton stat for region
84.7% Labour ; 9.9% conservative
richmond stat for region
63% Conservative ; 16.4% labour
ethnicity stat bradford and 2015
bradford west 61% non white voters = 76% labour vote share
in 2015, ethnic minority groups were 42% more likely to vote labour than conservative.
education - there is little disparity between except more labour voters for more educated people.
25 L ; 58 C with gcse or lower
43 L : 29 C degree or above.
demographics
age
region
ethnicity
education/employment
class
gender
theories
class dealignment
partisan dealignment
rational choice
economic voting model
public image
