4. Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
Who were the main candidates in the 1979 election?
Margaret Thatcher & Jim Callaghan.
What was the Conservative result to the 1979 election?
339 seats, 43.9% of popular vote.
What was Thatcher’s majority after the 1979 election?
43 seats.
What was the Labour result to the 1997 election?
418 seats, 43.2% of popular vote.
Who were the main candidates in the 1997 election?
Tony Blair & John Major.
What was Blair’s majority after the 1997 election?
179 seats.
What was the turnout of the 1979 election?
76%.
What was the turnout of the 1997 election?
71.4%.
Who were the main candidates in the 2010 General Election?
David Cameron, Gordon Brown, Nick Clegg.
What was the Liberal Democrat result of the 2010 election?
57 seats, 23% of popular vote.
Why did the election campaigns in 1979 cause Thatcher to win?
Conservatives had 2 advertising experts - Gorden Reece & Tim Bell.
Thatcher also turned down a televised debate with Callaghan since she thought she’d lose.
What was the turnout to the 2010 election?
65.1%.
What are the main three factors that decide the outcomes of elections?
Party policy & manifestos.
The election campaigns.
The wider political context.
Why did the wider political context in 1979 work to Thatcher’s advantage?
Callaghan had a minority government & had failed to deal with militant Trade Unions in the ‘winter of discontent’.
Why did manifesto & policy turn the 1979 election towards Thatcher?
Both manifestos were very moderate - when Jim Callaghan warned of a lurch to the right it had little crediblity.
Why did manifestos work to Blair’s advantage in 1997?
Blair won the endorsement of the press, notably the sun and the times.
He also abandoned hard-left policies such as nationalisation and strengthening Trade Union powers.
Why did the election campaigns lead to Blair’s victory in 1997?
Labour had a huge professional vote-winning propaganda machine run by Alastair Campbell & Peter Mandelson.
What stat proves that Labour’s campaign in 1997 wasn’t the main reason for victory?
Labour’s share of the vote increased on average by 12.5% in seats it targeted, but by 13.4% on average where it didn’t target.
What did the wider political context to do help Blair win the election?
The ‘Black Wednesday’ Catastrophe hurt John Major’s government reputation immeasurably, and the ‘back to basics’ scandals further reinforced this sentiment.
How did policy help Cameron win the 2010 election?
All three parties had similar promises to eliminate the budget deficit (£163 billion). However, people saw Labour’s policies as overspending, and did not trust Brown with the economy.
How did campaigns help Cameron win the 2010 election?
Gordon Brown’s meeting with a woman in Rochdale, where he called her a ‘bigoted woman’ without realising he was still mic’ed up.
Furthermore, the TV debated helped the Liberal Democrats come across well, as Nick Clegg saw huge popularity from these debate performances.
How did the wider political context help Cameron win the 2010 election?
Brown was seen as indecisive after wavering over whether to call an election in 2007 (Bottle it Brown). Brown was severely hurt by the 2007-8 financial crash.
What stats could explain why Cameron was unable to secure an overall majority?
Conservatives only had a 3% lead on Labour in a poll over whose economic policy was better (26% to 29%).
What is class dealignment?
The idea that people no longer identify as a certain social class, and their voting will not be affected by this.
What effect did class-based voting typically have?
Upper classes would vote Conservative, lower classes would vote Labour, middle classes would decide the winner.
What event was a large recognition of class dealignment in the 1990s?
The creation of New Labour appealed to traditional base but also middle classes.
What is partisan dealignment?
The idea that people are no longer loyal to a certain political party, and rather will vote on an election-by-election basis.
What is rational choice theory?
The idea that people will vote based on which choice will most directly benefit them.
What is governing competency?
The perceived ability of a political party or incumbent government to manage the affairs of state effectively.
What is the economic voting model?
The idea that people will support a governing party if it has managed the economy effectively.
Why has perception of political leaders become more important in modern times?
Politics has become more personalised and presidential.
How does gender typically affect voting preference?
Historically, women used to be more likely to vote Conservative than men. Since Blair, women have been slightly more likely to vote Labour than men.
How does gender affect likelihood to vote?
It doesn’t - 66% of men & 64% of women voted in 2010.
How does age affect voting habits?
Older people are more likely to vote Conservative. Older people are more likely to vote - 76% of 65+ voted in 2010, compared with 44% of 18-24.
How does ethnicity affect voting habits?
Ethnic minorities are more likely to vote Labour. In 2010, they preferred Labour to the Conservatives by 60 to 16 percent.
How does region affect voting habits?
There is a strong regional bias to voting habits. Most voters in the South will vote Conservative, whereas northern and urban areas (including London) will typically vote labour.
What are the four social classes?
AB - Professional & managerial
C1 - Supervisory, administrative
C2 - Skilled manual occupations
DE - unskilled manual occupation + unemployed
What are the main forms of media that have effects on elections?
Newspapers - always endorse a political party at elections.
Television - hosts debates between leaders
How many people watched the 2010 election leader’s debate?
9.6 million people
What is the most circulated newspaper in the UK?
The Metro.
What is the effect of opinion polls?
They become an integral part of election strategy for political parties.
What proves the polls are not always accurate?
They failed to predict John Major’s win in 1992. They thought the Conservatives wouldn’t win a majority in 2015.
What has been the effect of the internet on political campaigning?
It vastly extends the reach of political campaigns.
What percentage of 18-24 year olds rely almost entirely on online news sources?
79% in 2015.
How much did the Conservatives spend on Facebook advertising in 2015?
£100,000 a month.
Who was recruited to manage the press for Blair in the 1990s?
Alastair Campbell.
What is an issue with the effect of the media on politics?
Newspaper owners are interested in circulation & cannot be held to account like politicians can.
Which is less biased in political coverage: TV or newspapers?
TV - BBC is notoriously non-partisan.
Which newspapers are strongly partisan?
Telegraph - Conservative.
Guardian - Labour.
What’s the notorious slogan used by the Sun in 1992?
“It’s the sun wot won it”
What percentage of the voter base found television to be their main influence on voting in 2015?
62%.
How does the media reinforce, rather than change, political views?
People often buy & read newspapers that agree with them rather than those that present alternative opinion.
Social media is often for trivial politics rather than real debate.
In 2019, for every 10 years older a person is, what was the likelihood they voted Conservative?
9% increase.
What stat proves that class dealignment is a real thing?
In 2019, Conservatives got between 40-50% of the vote in all 4 social class groups.
