4 Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
Social Class
Grade A, B, C1, Middle class would traditionally vote Conservative
Grade C2, D, E, Working class would traditionally vote Labour
1974-1992 over 50% of A, B, C1 class people voted Conservative
Class is still important
despite the drop, a plurality of middle-class voters still vote Conservative
Working class voters were increasing for Labour until 2019
class links to other factors like education
trend of middle class voting Labour and working class voting Conservative in 21st century. despite not voting for traditional parties there is still correlation
Class is not important
Conservative Party won a number of ‘red wall’ seats in 2019, traditionally held by Labour
majority of voters no longer vote in line with traditional expectations of their class
other factors like age, region and ethnicity seem to be more important
Why has class voting changed?
class dealignment - as occupations in society have changed people are less likely to associate with a specific class
partisan dealignment - as party policies have changed and political education has increased, people are less likely to have loyalty to one party, but vote on issues relevant at each election
Gender
little evidence gander effects voting behaviour over the last 50 years
marginal trend that more men support the Conservatives and more women support Labour
men and women prioritise different issues - women favour increased spending and oppose cuts to public services
Age
younger voters more likely to support Labour, older voters more likely to support the Conservatives
21st century, over 55s vote for Conservatives with majority, 18-24 year old vote for Labour with majority
sharp spike in this trend in the last 3 elections
Ethnicity
notable trend for black and minority ethnic (BME) voters to vote Labour
less trend for white voters but more vote Conservative
Education
The last 2 elections have seen a trend of those with no qualifications voting Conservative (59% in 2019) and those with a degree voting Labour
education is closely linked to other factors
Region
prior to 2019, there was a north-south divide with Labour doing well in the North and Conservatives doing well in the South
traditional urban-rural divide with Labour doing well in cities and Conservative in the country side
2019 Conservative gained a number of seats in the ‘red wall’ in traditional northern Labour heartlands
Northwest - +1.3% vote change to Conservative
-8.4% vote change to Labour
Other factors effecting behaviour
rational choice voting and governing competency expectations, issue voting
valence - how much a voter trusts the party to deliver on promises and govern well
party leadership - personality, trust, reliability, experience
party manifestos - what policies a party is offering
tactical voting, turnout, the media
opinion polls - may increase voting if they indicate a close result
2010 General Election circumstances
global economic crisis created division over whether the solution was austerity or spending
Daily Telegraph broke the ‘expenses scandal’ story
first televised leadership debates, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg was very successful - Cleggmania
Gordon Brown caught on a microphone called an older voter a ‘bigoted woman’
The Sun switched to support Labour - The Sun Backs Blair
Cameron reflected more centrist Tory policy
2015 General Election circumstances
greater public optimism in UK economics
rise of UKIP = idea of an EU referendum
televised debates expanded to include 7 party leaders - ranked lowly in effecting voters
inaccurate polls predicted a close race
SNP became the 3rd largest party in Parliament
day after the election, 3 party leaders resigned within the same hour (Labour, Lib Dem, UKIP)
2017 General Election circumstances
major economic issue = UK’s relationship with the EU
a snap election (under Fixed-term Parliaments Act) to strengthen the governments ability to negotiate Brexit
UKIP vote collapsed from 12.6% in 2015 to 1.8%
two major parties both saw increase in their vote share - 82% between the two
Corbyn and Abbott got negative press for inability to answer the costs of their policies
May commented there was ‘no magic money tree’ before finding £1bn for Northern Ireland
2019 General Election circumstances
all parties pledged to increase NHS spending
fear of a no-deal Brexit remained
snap election called after Johnson replaced May in July then failed to get Parliament to support a revised withdrawal agreement from the EU
Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson lost her seat and resigned
numerous MPs resigned from their parties 2017 to 2019 including some who went to form the new Independent Group for Change in Parliament
Jacob Rees-Mogg had to apologise for comments made about the Grenfell Tower fire
1979 General Election
turnout 76%
Thatcher 44% 339 seats
Callaghan 37% 269 seats
1979 impact of issues
1978-79 Winter of Discontent - series of strikes
40 year high of unemployment - 1.5m in 1978
1979 Scottish devolution defeated - led to vote of no confidence in the government and the election
all 3 main parties had new leaders, first woman leader of Conservatives
1979 impact of the campaign
Conservative party campaigned on the slogan ‘Labour isn’t working’, its manifesto focused on economic balance and reducing union power
labour implied voters should not elect a woman
Labour campaign entitled ‘The Labour Way is the Better Way’, focused on inflation and improving industrial relations
1979 impact of party leaders
Thatcher explicitly called on Labour voters to vote for her saying the Labour party was extreme
Callaghan was seen as oblivious to the industrial unrest the country faced
advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi worked on honing Thatcher’s image, softening the ‘Iron Lady’
voice changing
1979 impact of the media
the Sun supported the Conservative Party and published the famous line ‘Crisis? What crisis?’ mocking Callaghan
televised debates were suggested but Thatcher did not wish to take part
1997 General Election
turnout 71%
Blair 43% 418 seats
Major 31% 165 seats
1997 impact of issues
Conservatives had been in power for 18 years, scandals had emerged in recent years
UK was forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992 leading to Black Wednesday, questioning the Conservative’s economic ability
The Referendum Party wanted an EU referendum, threatened to split Conservative vote
1997 impact of the campaign
Labour re-branded as ‘New Labour’, abandoning Clause IV and endorsing market economics - this ‘third way’ appealed to a wide range of voters
Conservative manifesto ‘You can only be sure with the Conservatives’ tried to emphasise stability
‘New Labour, New Danger’ demonstrated an aggressive campaigning method
for Labour, ‘spin’ became important, seeing the rise of spin doctors like Alastair Campbell
1997 impact of party leaders
Blair was 43, relatively young and had proven himself charismatic on the campaign trail
Major was seen as dull, the satirical TV show Spitting Image portrayed him with a grey puppet
1997 impact of the media
The Sun supported Tony Blair ‘The Sun Backs Blair’
the internet was just beginning but the BBC created the BBC Politics 97 service to document the election campaign
2019 General Election
turnout 68%
Johnson 44% 365 seats
Corbyn 32% 202 seats
2019 impact of issues
parliament’s inability to find agreement on the Brexit withdrawal agreement
formation of the Brexit Party in 2018 under Nigel Farage, advocating for a no-deal Brexit
Scottish independence was key to the SNP’s manifesto, Scotland voted ‘remain’ in 2016
a few months before the election Johnson removed the whip from 21 MPs for voting against his Brexit plans
Labour under investigation for antisemitism
climate was a key issue - all parties had carbon pledges
2019 impact of the campaign
Conservative Party slogan ‘Get Brexit Done’
a number of parties campaigned on having a second EU referendum
Labour developed a ‘My Campaign Map’ app that allowed grassroots activists to see where their efforts would be most effective
controversy over an edited clip of Starmer put out by the Conservatives which suggested he could not answer the question on Labour’s Brexit policy
2019 impact of party leaders
televised debates held between Johnson and Corbyn alone
according to YouGov voters saw Johnson as decisive and strong but also untrustworthy and dishonest. they saw Corbyn as authentic but also incompetent, weak and indecisive
2019 impact of the media
social media advertising was well used to target specific demographics
online news outlets reported the election - 33% were committed to impartiality
only the Guardian and the Mirror endorsed Labour, the Express, Mail, Telegraph, Times, Sun and Standard endorsed the Conservatives
Johnson refused to attend a Channel 4 debate - they allowed the debate to go ahead with an ice sculpture in his place, 13 televised debates took place
Changing nature of the media
newspapers, both online and in print, have seen a decline of their impact. only 38% of people used them in 2022, down from 47% in 2020
most common places people go for news is the television (74%) or the internet (66%)
the Daily Mail is the most-read print newspaper, the Guardian and the Daily Mail are the most-read digital papers
social media is increasingly prominent, TikTok’s reach for news was only 1% in 2020, but 7% by 2022
younger voters tend to use social media and the internet to get news, older voters use more traditional media. 39% of 16-24 year olds see social media as their most important source of news
Opinion polls are important
help shape government policies to reflect public opinion
exit polls show accuracy at predicting election results
if they suggest the election will be close they may persuade voters to turn out
allow the public to impact government policy between elections
reflect the level of political engagement, reducing political apathy
Opinion polls are not important
have been inaccurate in recent elections, can mislead politicians and the public
rather than impacting policy, they just reflect changes
could influence the way people vote but they are hugely unregulated
politicians should be acting in the country’s best interests not just reacting to polls
no way to determine voter honestly in responses
How influential is the media?
use of social media is increasing, but it rates poorly in ‘trust’ from those who use it
only 51% of people say they trust the news
70% of people are concerned whether the news they get is real or fake
those of a higher social grade are more active in sharing news via social media
voters for Lib Dem and Labour are more likely to follow the news than Conservative voters
52% of over-45s use the television as their main source of news, only 27% of under-45s
63% of under-45s get their main source of news online, compared to 6% of over-45s
higher social grades are more likely to use the BBC, Times or Guardian, lower social classes are more likely to use ITV, the Sun or the Mirror
