4 Voting Behaviour and the Media

Question 1

Social Class

Answer 1

Grade A, B, C1, Middle class would traditionally vote Conservative

Grade C2, D, E, Working class would traditionally vote Labour

1974-1992 over 50% of A, B, C1 class people voted Conservative

Question 2

Class is still important

Answer 2

despite the drop, a plurality of middle-class voters still vote Conservative

Working class voters were increasing for Labour until 2019

class links to other factors like education

trend of middle class voting Labour and working class voting Conservative in 21st century. despite not voting for traditional parties there is still correlation

Question 3

Class is not important

Answer 3

Conservative Party won a number of ‘red wall’ seats in 2019, traditionally held by Labour

majority of voters no longer vote in line with traditional expectations of their class

other factors like age, region and ethnicity seem to be more important

Question 4

Why has class voting changed?

Answer 4

class dealignment - as occupations in society have changed people are less likely to associate with a specific class

partisan dealignment - as party policies have changed and political education has increased, people are less likely to have loyalty to one party, but vote on issues relevant at each election

Question 5

Gender

Answer 5

little evidence gander effects voting behaviour over the last 50 years

marginal trend that more men support the Conservatives and more women support Labour

men and women prioritise different issues - women favour increased spending and oppose cuts to public services

Question 6

Age

Answer 6

younger voters more likely to support Labour, older voters more likely to support the Conservatives

21st century, over 55s vote for Conservatives with majority, 18-24 year old vote for Labour with majority

sharp spike in this trend in the last 3 elections

Question 7

Ethnicity

Answer 7

notable trend for black and minority ethnic (BME) voters to vote Labour

less trend for white voters but more vote Conservative

Question 8

Education

Answer 8

The last 2 elections have seen a trend of those with no qualifications voting Conservative (59% in 2019) and those with a degree voting Labour

education is closely linked to other factors

Question 9

Region

Answer 9

prior to 2019, there was a north-south divide with Labour doing well in the North and Conservatives doing well in the South

traditional urban-rural divide with Labour doing well in cities and Conservative in the country side

2019 Conservative gained a number of seats in the ‘red wall’ in traditional northern Labour heartlands

Northwest - +1.3% vote change to Conservative
-8.4% vote change to Labour

Question 10

Other factors effecting behaviour

Answer 10

rational choice voting and governing competency expectations, issue voting

valence - how much a voter trusts the party to deliver on promises and govern well

party leadership - personality, trust, reliability, experience

party manifestos - what policies a party is offering

tactical voting, turnout, the media

opinion polls - may increase voting if they indicate a close result

Question 11

2010 General Election circumstances

Answer 11

global economic crisis created division over whether the solution was austerity or spending

Daily Telegraph broke the ‘expenses scandal’ story

first televised leadership debates, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg was very successful - Cleggmania

Gordon Brown caught on a microphone called an older voter a ‘bigoted woman’

The Sun switched to support Labour - The Sun Backs Blair

Cameron reflected more centrist Tory policy

Question 12

2015 General Election circumstances

Answer 12

greater public optimism in UK economics

rise of UKIP = idea of an EU referendum

televised debates expanded to include 7 party leaders - ranked lowly in effecting voters

inaccurate polls predicted a close race

SNP became the 3rd largest party in Parliament

day after the election, 3 party leaders resigned within the same hour (Labour, Lib Dem, UKIP)

Question 13

2017 General Election circumstances

Answer 13

major economic issue = UK’s relationship with the EU

a snap election (under Fixed-term Parliaments Act) to strengthen the governments ability to negotiate Brexit

UKIP vote collapsed from 12.6% in 2015 to 1.8%

two major parties both saw increase in their vote share - 82% between the two

Corbyn and Abbott got negative press for inability to answer the costs of their policies

May commented there was ‘no magic money tree’ before finding £1bn for Northern Ireland

Question 14

2019 General Election circumstances

Answer 14

all parties pledged to increase NHS spending

fear of a no-deal Brexit remained

snap election called after Johnson replaced May in July then failed to get Parliament to support a revised withdrawal agreement from the EU

Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson lost her seat and resigned

numerous MPs resigned from their parties 2017 to 2019 including some who went to form the new Independent Group for Change in Parliament

Jacob Rees-Mogg had to apologise for comments made about the Grenfell Tower fire

Question 15

1979 General Election

Answer 15

turnout 76%

Thatcher 44% 339 seats
Callaghan 37% 269 seats

Question 16

1979 impact of issues

Answer 16

1978-79 Winter of Discontent - series of strikes

40 year high of unemployment - 1.5m in 1978

1979 Scottish devolution defeated - led to vote of no confidence in the government and the election

all 3 main parties had new leaders, first woman leader of Conservatives

Question 17

1979 impact of the campaign

Answer 17

Conservative party campaigned on the slogan ‘Labour isn’t working’, its manifesto focused on economic balance and reducing union power

labour implied voters should not elect a woman

Labour campaign entitled ‘The Labour Way is the Better Way’, focused on inflation and improving industrial relations

Question 18

1979 impact of party leaders

Answer 18

Thatcher explicitly called on Labour voters to vote for her saying the Labour party was extreme

Callaghan was seen as oblivious to the industrial unrest the country faced

advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi worked on honing Thatcher’s image, softening the ‘Iron Lady’
voice changing

Question 19

1979 impact of the media

Answer 19

the Sun supported the Conservative Party and published the famous line ‘Crisis? What crisis?’ mocking Callaghan

televised debates were suggested but Thatcher did not wish to take part

Question 20

1997 General Election

Answer 20

turnout 71%

Blair 43% 418 seats
Major 31% 165 seats

Question 21

1997 impact of issues

Answer 21

Conservatives had been in power for 18 years, scandals had emerged in recent years

UK was forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992 leading to Black Wednesday, questioning the Conservative’s economic ability

The Referendum Party wanted an EU referendum, threatened to split Conservative vote

Question 22

1997 impact of the campaign

Answer 22

Labour re-branded as ‘New Labour’, abandoning Clause IV and endorsing market economics - this ‘third way’ appealed to a wide range of voters

Conservative manifesto ‘You can only be sure with the Conservatives’ tried to emphasise stability

‘New Labour, New Danger’ demonstrated an aggressive campaigning method

for Labour, ‘spin’ became important, seeing the rise of spin doctors like Alastair Campbell

Question 23

1997 impact of party leaders

Answer 23

Blair was 43, relatively young and had proven himself charismatic on the campaign trail

Major was seen as dull, the satirical TV show Spitting Image portrayed him with a grey puppet

Question 24

1997 impact of the media

Answer 24

The Sun supported Tony Blair ‘The Sun Backs Blair’

the internet was just beginning but the BBC created the BBC Politics 97 service to document the election campaign

Question 25

2019 General Election

Answer 25

turnout 68%

Johnson 44% 365 seats
Corbyn 32% 202 seats

Question 26

2019 impact of issues

Answer 26

parliament’s inability to find agreement on the Brexit withdrawal agreement

formation of the Brexit Party in 2018 under Nigel Farage, advocating for a no-deal Brexit

Scottish independence was key to the SNP’s manifesto, Scotland voted ‘remain’ in 2016

a few months before the election Johnson removed the whip from 21 MPs for voting against his Brexit plans

Labour under investigation for antisemitism

climate was a key issue - all parties had carbon pledges

Question 27

2019 impact of the campaign

Answer 27

Conservative Party slogan ‘Get Brexit Done’

a number of parties campaigned on having a second EU referendum

Labour developed a ‘My Campaign Map’ app that allowed grassroots activists to see where their efforts would be most effective

controversy over an edited clip of Starmer put out by the Conservatives which suggested he could not answer the question on Labour’s Brexit policy

Question 28

2019 impact of party leaders

Answer 28

televised debates held between Johnson and Corbyn alone

according to YouGov voters saw Johnson as decisive and strong but also untrustworthy and dishonest. they saw Corbyn as authentic but also incompetent, weak and indecisive

Question 29

2019 impact of the media

Answer 29

social media advertising was well used to target specific demographics

online news outlets reported the election - 33% were committed to impartiality

only the Guardian and the Mirror endorsed Labour, the Express, Mail, Telegraph, Times, Sun and Standard endorsed the Conservatives

Johnson refused to attend a Channel 4 debate - they allowed the debate to go ahead with an ice sculpture in his place, 13 televised debates took place

Question 30

Changing nature of the media

Answer 30

newspapers, both online and in print, have seen a decline of their impact. only 38% of people used them in 2022, down from 47% in 2020

most common places people go for news is the television (74%) or the internet (66%)

the Daily Mail is the most-read print newspaper, the Guardian and the Daily Mail are the most-read digital papers

social media is increasingly prominent, TikTok’s reach for news was only 1% in 2020, but 7% by 2022

younger voters tend to use social media and the internet to get news, older voters use more traditional media. 39% of 16-24 year olds see social media as their most important source of news

Question 31

Opinion polls are important

Answer 31

help shape government policies to reflect public opinion

exit polls show accuracy at predicting election results

if they suggest the election will be close they may persuade voters to turn out

allow the public to impact government policy between elections

reflect the level of political engagement, reducing political apathy

Question 32

Opinion polls are not important

Answer 32

have been inaccurate in recent elections, can mislead politicians and the public

rather than impacting policy, they just reflect changes

could influence the way people vote but they are hugely unregulated

politicians should be acting in the country’s best interests not just reacting to polls

no way to determine voter honestly in responses

Question 33

How influential is the media?

Answer 33

use of social media is increasing, but it rates poorly in ‘trust’ from those who use it

only 51% of people say they trust the news

70% of people are concerned whether the news they get is real or fake

those of a higher social grade are more active in sharing news via social media

voters for Lib Dem and Labour are more likely to follow the news than Conservative voters

52% of over-45s use the television as their main source of news, only 27% of under-45s

63% of under-45s get their main source of news online, compared to 6% of over-45s

higher social grades are more likely to use the BBC, Times or Guardian, lower social classes are more likely to use ITV, the Sun or the Mirror