4. How can peacekeepers help us overcome the bargaining challenges that often prevent the resolution of war? Flashcards
What are the problem’s behind mediation?
- Conflict Ripeness: Too ripe, too rotten
- Devious intentions: parties enter negotiations as a means to bide time. Mostly happens due to weak mediators
What is the difference you find in intrastate than inter
- Civil conflicts: Governments are less willing to have mediators present in the state as it brings acknowledgement to rebels which government may have before prescribed as ‘terrorists’
Between what years and what percent of civil wars have been sorted through negotiation?
1940-1990 20%
What is Barbra Walter’s main argument?
- Civil wars rarely end in negotiations because the combatants are unable to do this alone
- They are able to find agreements but are unwilling to unarm and demobilise (credible commitment problem)
- Both sides must have same security guarantees
- Peace will be long term if security guarantees can be made from third parties and internal power-sharing is strong
What are the main problems of the credible commitment problem?
- Temporal: Bargaining is temporal (changes over time) therefore the peace agreement must work to ensure both sides interests are kept over a stretched period of time
- Perfect: A peace agreement could suit both sides greatly, yet the fear of being turned upon once demobilising and de-arming outweighs the prospect of peace.
- Opportunity: The prospect of knowing the other side has disarmed creates too great an opportunity to strike
- Reside: Easier to resolve interstate as countries can reside back in their state
Define a credible commitment problem in the context of war and negotiation with example
- A credible commitment problem in the context of war and negotiation is whereby a group is unable to honestly commit themselves to a peace agreement due to security fears after disarmament and demobilisation
What happened in the case of Nigeria?
- Ibo population refused to sign the peace agreement in fear that the government would massacre them shortly after
- Government refused to sign because they believed that the Ibo’s were using the cease-fire signing time to re-arm
- Both agreed that if third party mediation had been present during and for some time after the peace agreement, they would have felt safe enough to sign
Nicaragua
Main groups? Date? Created? Demobilisation? Mediation helped do what?
- Contra and Sandinista’s
- 1989
- Self-governing development zones
- Large amounts of UN and Venezuelan forces that created safe zones for demobilising groups
- Group demobilisation was voluntary
- Mediation helped negotiate Sandinista withdrawal of security zones whilst giving one of their own the role of commander-in-chief in military affairs, safeguarding them from Contra attacks
What does Fearon conclude in his piece ‘Rationalist explanations to war’?
- Rational states will provide other negotiated agreements which do not end in the result of war
- This can sometimes be impossible due to there being withheld ‘private’ information and states inability to uphold a commitment deal - ultimately what we know today to be the credible commitment problem
Geoffrey Blainey quote
“wars usually begin when two nations disagree on their relative strength”
Kosovo Peacekeeping info
- Name?
- Date?
- Type?
- NATO involvement?
- G8 resolutions?
- Justified by?
- What did this case show?
- UNMIK
- 1999
- 3rd generation robust peacekeeping
- Use of force in form of airstrikes NATO
- After airstrikes came, resolutions adopted by G8 foreign ministers: end to repression, safe return of refugee’s,
- Justified by R2P and the Four pillar system whereby humanitarian intervention overrules non-intervention and state sovereignty
- Showed that military intervention alone is not enough and the construction post-conflict is needed in peacekeeping to maintain peace
First generation peacekeeping? Main functions Personnel used Amount Problems
First generation peacekeeping’s main functions:
- Create buffer zones
- Monitor borders
Personnel Used:
- UN military personnel which were lightly armed
Amount:
- Small amount of active peacekeeping missions
Problems:
- Monitoring could not fully resolve issues which sometimes lead to peacekeepers being stuck as in Cyprus
Second generation peacekeeping/Operations? Main functions Personnel used Amount Problems
Second generation peacekeeping’s main functions:
- multilateral, multidimensional and multinational
- peacefully by monitoring HR’s, surrender of weapons, organising governmental positions
Personnel Used:
- Police forces, military, civilian and NGO’s (red cross, etc)
Amount:
- Influx of peacekeeping missions
- Increase in troop-contributing countries
Problems:
- Decline in 1990s in confidence of peacekeeping
- Peacekeeping exposed as unable to protect civilians and even themselves
- Civilians became main targets of war
Explain the asymmetric information problem
- Bluffing or believing the other side is bluffing their resolve, zone of agreement in negotiations or their actual military strengths
- By bluffing, or believing the opposing side may be bluffing, neither side gains the relevant information to prevent war.
- This information is vital as groups can sometimes: underestimate a groups resolve, military power and where their zone of agreement lies
Explain the withholding private information argument
- by groups withholding information as to what the type of agreements they wish for, no resolve can be met
- groups may want A,B and C in that order whereas the other groups may prioritise C, B and A… if spoken could resolve
