350 exam 2 Flashcards
What are the primary causes of famines?
o Massive crop failure
o Now, more likely to occur based on policy and civil conflict
Who are most likely to be affected during a famine?
Those in poverty; rural occupations
How is the severity of a famine measured?
The number of people who starve to death
What problems arise when measuring severity of a famine?
- People can die from causes unrelated to malnutrition
- Malnutrition increases the probability of death from diseases
- So, separating a “starvation death” from a “disease death” or from other sources of death can be difficult.
- Kill directly
Irish potato famine (1845-1852)
- Many Irish farmers depended almost exclusively on potato for food
- Lesson 1: overspecialization in agriculture can expose people to risk associated with adverse shocks from disease or weather
- Lesson 2: preventing famines is not easy
- Lesson 3: by importing food from other regions, trade can help reduce food insecurity
- Lesson 4: migrating away from region where famine occurs can be an effective coping mechanism
Ukraine famine (1932-33)
- Stalin introduced compulsory collectivization of agriculture in Soviet Union
- Lesson 1: government policies can create famines, through confiscation and destroying income sources; can lead to war
Bengal famine (1943)
- Lesson 1: malnutrition and starvation can occur even if food is available, based on insufficient entitlements (public and private)
- Lesson 2: Malnutrition can vary across individuals as a function of income and prices
China famine (1959-61)
Worst famine in history
Ethiopia (1984-85)
• Vulnerability to famine and malnutrition varies among socio-economic groups
What proportion of people in the world is undernourished?
1 out of 8 people
Is the proportion of undernourished people moving up or down?
Down/decreasing
In what part of the world is malnutrition most prevalent?
South Asia
What groups of people are particularly prone to undernutrition in developing countries?
- Children
- The poor
- People living in rural areas
- Girls and women
- Individuals affected by other forms of discrimination (i.e. caste system in India)
What groups of people are particularly prone to undernutrition in developed countries?
- Children
- The poor
- People who do not have easy access to food markets (i.e. urban ‘food desert’; low income neighborhoods)
What time of year is malnutrition the worst in developing countries?
o “Hungry season” is just before harvest
Evidence of Brazil’s progress in combatting malnutrition in past 30 years.
o 15% of hunger/malnutrition in 1990s to 6.9% in 2010
o Underweight prevalence in under-fives reduced from 13 to 1.7% (12 years)
o Wasting prevalence is below 2%
o Stunting prevalence fell from 1.5 to 6.8%
Regional severity and convergence trends in malnutrition outcomes in Brazil
o NE region during slavery were very rich—region had greatest morality rate but made most improvement
• Had slavery in north, not south
Sources of malnutrition issue in past in Brazil
Slavery
Contributing factors to progress in reducing malnutrition, specifically in Brazil
- Growth of economy, improved income distribution, urbanization, education of women
- Interventions outside of health sector (BOLSA)
- Increased promotion of breastfeeding, oral rehydration, and immunizations
- Child and maternal health programs pushed through various mechanisms
- Fertility 5 to 2 children
- Rising minimum wage policy
When did world population growth peak? At what rate?
1960s
2.1 percent
How is the population growth rate calculated?
• rt = (Pt+1 – Pt)/Pt = proportional change in population from year t to year t+1
What is the approx. global population today?
About 7 billion
What country has the largest population in the world today?
China
What country is likely to have the largest population by 2050?
India
What are the cause of population change?
o Improvements in public health
o Rising incomes worldwide
o Income elasticity of food demand
o Rising agriculture production worldwide
o Improvements in agricultural technology worldwide—Green Rev.
o Mobility of people to accomplish all of the above—associated with migration
o Social policy to address malnutrition and hunger
o Population change = birth – death + net migration o Life expectancy has been rising o Better public health o Fertility rates have declined o Higher household income o Improved health care and sanitation o Better education for women
What is the typical shape of a:
demand curve?
supply curve?
Downward sloping
Upward sloping
Is demand for food typically elastic or inelastic?
Inelastic–less than 1
Is the supply for food typically elastic or inelastic?
Inelastic–less than 1
What factors can shift the food supply curve?
o Weather conditions—droughts
o Diseases for crops/livestock
o Deterioration in land fertility or water availability and environmental damages
o Technological improvements in agriculture
• Improved farm management
• Reduced input costs
o Improved genetics of plants, increasing yield
o Improved genetics for animals, increasing efficiency of transforming feed into food
What factors can shift the food demand curve?
o Population—as increases, more mouths to feed, increasing demand for food
o Income—as household income rises, typically increasing demand for food
o Nutrition education
o Tastes—preferences
How have food prices changed over time?
o Over last century, food prices have fluctuated a lot
• Real food prices (= nominal food prices divided by an inflation index) have declined significantly
• Inconsistent with Malthusian scenario
• Means ability to increase food production has been good, allowing us to meet challenge of feeding a growing population
How have food prices changed recently?
• Over last few years, food prices have risen
Does historical record support the Malthusian scenario?
o There is a limited ability to increase food production on earth, implying that the rapid increase in the world population will lead to massive starvation
o Food demand would rise faster than food supply, and price of food would rise over time
NO
What are ways to increase food production?
o Food production = [agricultural land] x [yield]
o Increase in land area being cultivated and used in agriculture
o Agricultural yields have increased a lot
o Improving agriculture productivity
Omnivore
Eat both plants and meat
Herbivore
eat only plants; make food themselves
carnivore
only eat meat
famine
• Large number of people die from starvation; extreme cases of food insecurity
Entitlement
having the right to soemthing
Food purchasing power of entitlement
- Individual income divided by the price of food
- Largest quantity of food that an individual can purchase given his/her income
- When fall below survival threshold, people starve unless have ‘social entitlements’
- Rises with income; declines with price of food
Market entitlements
dependence on employment and real wages
Social entitlements
Things that help families/individuals overcome what they cannot do/purchase on their own
Stunting
Low height for age
Infant morality
death of children under age of 1 per 1000 births per year
Factors reducing infant mortality
.
Bolsa Familia
- Conditional cash transfer of $60/month to families with children in school, given to mothers on an ATM card.
- Also required to bring children to health centers for preventive screening and for pre- and post-natal care.
- Has contributed to major gains in school attainment and poverty alleviation for 10s of millions of families in Brazil since 1995.
Universal health
The goal of universal health coverage is to ensure that all people obtain the health services they need without suffering financial hardship when paying for them
Population change (formula)
• Population change = birth – death + net migration
Supply
- Quantity produced as a function of the corresponding market price
- Increase in price provides a producer[s] an incentive to produce more of it
Demand
- Quantity consumed as a function of the market price
* Increase in price provides a consumer[s] an incentive to consume less of it
Market equilibrum
• The price is such that aggregate supply equals aggregate demand
Elasticity
Steepness of demand/supply curve
price elasticity of demand
- Percentage change in the quantity consumed due to 1% increase in price
- Elastic when…demand responds strongly to a change in its price—greater than 1
- Reflects adjustments consumers make in their food consumption in response to changes in food price
income elasticity of demand
esponsiveness of the demand for a good to a change in the income of the people demanding the good
price elasticity of supply
- Percentage change in the quantity produced due to 1% increase in price
- Elastic when…supply responds strongly to price change—greater than 1
- Reflects ability of farmers to adjust the quantity of food they produce in response to changes in the market price
Malthusian scenario
- Food supply could not keep up with population growth
- Will have hunger, conflict, disease
- On average, that did no occur
infant mortality
death of children under age of 1 year
inequality measures
- Land inequality
- Literacy rate
- Average education years
- GDP per capita
rule of 72 for doubling
For a given growth rate r, the number of years it takes
for population to double is
t = ln(2)/r, where ln denotes the logarithm, or
t = 0.6931/r or 72/r is often the way it’s done.
