3.3/3.4 Flashcards
limitations of quantitative sales forecasting
Past performance is no guarantee of the future – Changes in the market or fashions and trends may cause a change in sales differing from past sales.
Other factors can affect future predictions (PESTLE)
Relies on past data – This may not always a good indication of what may happen in the future.
Time consuming – Complex to make.
What is pay back period
the time it takes for a project to make enough money to pay back its initial investment
pay back period (eq)
amount invested / annual net cash flow
ARR formula
average net return / investment x100
Drawbacks of pay back period
-ignores cash flow after payback
-ignores time value of money (depreciation)
benefits of pay back period
-easy to calculate and understand
-good for technological projects as payback needs to be quick
-reduces risk of a loss
Drawbacks of ARR
-ignores the timing of the cash flows
-ignores the time value of money
Benefits of ARR
easy to calculate and understand
takes into account all cash flows
What is NPV?
the sum of the present values of cash flows - the cost of the initial investment
calculation for the return
NPV / investment x100
benefits of decision trees
managers have to work out real values of the potential pay off and think about probability instead of vague statements
can compare options quantitively and objectively
drawbacks of decision trees
- only quantitative
-probabilities hard to predict accurately changes from person to person there opinion
benefits of critical path analysis
- ensures deadlines are met for critical a activities
-helps forecast cash flow as It gives EST when cash will need to be spent
-finds shortest time possible
drawbacks of critical path analysis
- only estimates of how long each task will take not too accurate
- short set deadlines can lead to employees cutting corners which means quality may suffer
- doesn’t mention costs
short- termism
make decisions to increase financial performance over short time periods