3.2.1.5 The electoral process and direct democracy Flashcards
1960 JFK election - example of being telegenic
people who watched it on tv thought JFK won but those who listened to it on radio thought that Nixon won. JFK was younger better looking and Nixon had a 40-degree fever and was sweaty. In the end, JFK won the election by 100,000 votes
what was an influencing factor in Obamas 2008 campaign?
his large social media platform
relevant policies in 2016
Trump lacked sound and relevant policies, therefore raisng the question of whether other factors are more influnecial in the success of a President
Which media outlets should an individulals hope to appear in, if they want to be a serious candidate
Washington Post and The New York Times, or there might be a positive article in Time magazine.
Who was the first candidate to announce his candidacy in 2016
Senator Ted Cruz who made it on the 23rd March 2015, 10 months before the primaries. By the end of July 2015, 17 candidates had also announced running.
How far is trump ahead of opinion polls in 2023 despite not attending televised party debates
40 points
Televised debates 2011
Governor Rick Perry of Texas had a much-publicised memory loss when he could not recall the three federal executive departments he would close if elected president. Just over two months later, Perry ended his 2012 presidential bid, having finished sixth in the New Hampshire primary with less than 1% of the vote – demonstrates the importance of debates as this damaged Perry’s image.
Trump campaign finance 2016
Donald Trump, came in fifth, but one needs to be aware that by this stage in the campaign, Trump had donated just short of $18 million of his own money to his campaign which when added to the $25.5 million he had raised put him third in the money-raising table.
campaign finance 2016
Ben Carson’s near $58 million and Jeb Bush’s $33.5 million won them not a single primary. Indeed, Bush failed to make it past the third week of the primaries before ending his campaign.
Only exception to front tunner in republican invisible primary
2008 - Rudy Giuliani - John McCain
Quote from Mitt Romney in 2012
once he’d won the candidacy, the republican party needed to change their strategy and policies to get the votes of the general electorate, presents candidates as non-genuine.
Invisible primary data 2020 - republicans
Clear that Trump would be candidate he was officially endorsed by the Republican endorsed by the Republican National committee in Jan 2019. Trump has essentially been campaigning since 2016 with his frequent rallies.
Invisible primary data 2020 - Democrats
Largest ever field – 29 candidates. The key battle was between the moderate and progressive sides of the party mainly represented by Biden and Sanders. Kamala Harris performed well in the early televised debates.
Democrat Primary data 2016
Bernie Sanders won 68% in the caucuses in Kansas and 82% in Alaska. In all the caucuses, Sanders averaged 66% of the vote to Clinton’s 33%.
Sanders vs Clinton
Bernie Sanders won 68% in the caucuses in Kansas and 82% in Alaska. In all the caucuses, Sanders averaged 66% of the vote to Clinton’s 33%.
how many states held their primary on super tuesday in 2016?
11
the increase in primaries being held in march
The number of states holding their primaries or caucuses before the end of March increased from just 11 in 1980 to 42 in 2008, and those 42 states included the eight largest states. California, for example, has moved from early June (1980) to early February (2008).
Delegates 2008
By 5 February 2008, 55% of the delegates to the Democratic and Republican conventions had already been chosen.
2020 primary stats
31 states had held their primary by the end of march.
16 states held their primaries on March 3 including Texas.
2012 wisconsin open primary
In the 2012 Wisconsin Republican open primary, 11% of voters said they were Democrats. While Mitt Romney won the primary overall with 44% of the vote to 37% for Rick Santorum, among Democrats Santorum beat Romney by 20 percentage points.
Arizona vs New Hampshire republican party primary 2016
Donald Trump received all 58 delegates to the party’s national convention (only had 45.9% of the vote) because it was a winner-take-all contest. But in winning the New Hampshire primary - a proportional primary - Trump won just 11 delegates, with the remaining 12 delegate shared among four other candidates.
How much money did Obama raise after Iowa 2008
50 million
End of feburary 2008
By the end of February Obama now had a 51-39% lead over Hilary Clinton.
Jeb Bush 2016
The day after coming in fourth with just 7% of the vote in the Republican South Carolina primary in 2016, Jeb Bush withdrew from the race.
2020 Iowa democrat
Biden only secured 15% of the vote.
2020 New Hampshire democrat
Biden secured 8.4% of the vote.
2020 South Carolina democrat
Biden secured 49% of the vote
2024 presidential primaries
Iowa: Jan 15th – first
New Hampshire: Jan 23rd
Super Tuesday: March 5th
Florida: March 19th
What percentage of the vote do super delegates have?
16%
which state didnt hold a primary when incumbent was running
Virginia 2012
Obama primary vote 2012
90%
which incumbent weren’s re-elected
Ford, 1976, 53% of primary vote, lost election.
Turnout in primaries
In general turnout in the primaries has been around 10%, there was an increase in 2008, specifically democrats due to Obama (19.5% turnout). And the republican primaries turnout increased in 2016 (14.8%).
