3.2.1.5 The electoral process and direct democracy Flashcards
what is the invisible primary?
The period between candidates declaring an intention to run for presidency and the first primaries and caucuses.
what are primary and caucuses
where popular support is shown for candidates, choose delegates to attend national party conventions
What does the National party convention do?
Confirm presidential and vice-presidential candidates, approve party platform. Acceptance speech delivered by presidential candidate.
Constitutional requirements to be president
- One must be a natural-born American citizen.
- One must be at least 35 years old.
- There is a residency qualification of 14 years.
extra-constitutionla requirements to become president
- Political experience
- Major Party endorsement
- Personal Characteristics
- Ability to raise large sums of money.
- Effective organisation
- Oratorical skills and being telegenic
- Sound and relevant policies
why are the invisible primaries important
- for a candidate to gain name recognition and money, and to put together the necessary organisation
- high correlation between who is leading in the polls at the end of the invisible primary and who wins the presidential nomination.
- media
are televised debates important
- in recent years they havent been as significant as Trump didn’t attend in 2016 and 2024 due his lead in the polls
quote about fundraising in invisible primaries
‘raising must occur in earnest to accumulate a large enough war chest’
what does money bring the ability of
to campaign and advertise, which brings improved poll ratings, which brings more money.
Why is it important to end the primaries as front runner
It was important to end invisible primary as the front-runner, according to opinion polls as, whichever candidate was leading in the polls just before the primaries and caucuses began was usually confirmed as the nominee.
What change happens between primaries and election campaign according to Romney
Mitt Romney in 2012 said once he’d won the candidacy, the republican party needed to change their strategy and policies to get the votes of the general electorate. However this presents candidates as non-genuine.
Primary defintion
state-based elections to choose party’s candidate.
whcih system to each aprty use to award delegates
democrats - proportional
republican - winner takes all
Open-Primary defintion
any voter in the state can choose to vote in either the democrat or republican primary – produces negative voting.
Semi-closed primary defintion
voters who are registered supporters or independents can take part.
closed primary definiton
supporters of a party can vote.
Caucus defintion
public meetings and debate before voting tends to only be activists and most committed voters – least democratic.
front loading defintion
The phenomenon by which a state schedules its presidential primaries and caucuses earlier in the nomination cycle to increase its importance.
whcih states typically go first in primary elections
Iowa and New Hampshire
what benefit is there to holding your primary early
to get attention from the media and gives it a status it wouldn’t normally have
crossover voting
which means that Democrat voters can opt to participate in the Republican primary and vice versa
what is the thought on the corrlation between primaries and candidateship
For many years it was said that a candidate could not win the presidential nomination - or even the White House - without first winning the New Hampshire primary.
What caused the change in 2020 for Biden
Two days before the make-or-break primary, Monmouth University released a poll showing the former vice president with a staggering 20-point lead. That followed a critical endorsement from powerful congressional leader Jim Clyburn. Money gushed in $10 million in 48 hours. The Biden campaign enjoyed a windfall of support from members of Congress, influential African American leaders, and elected officials across pivotal states. If Jim Clyburn was backing Biden, it led many African Americans to vote for Biden.
what is a super delegate?
An unelected delegate who is free to support any candidate for the presidential nomination at the party’s national convention.
What change happened to super delegates in 2020
Superdelegates will no longer vote on the first ballot at the convention unless there is no doubt about the outcome.
why are superdelegates problematic
- they are unelected and have 16% of the vote.
- Can declare before the primaries, who they are going to support, which made led voters to become influenced.
Are incumbents usually relected?
yes
Factors affecting turnout
- demography
- type of primary
- how competitive the nomination race is
- whether the nomination has been decided or not
Importance of primaries
- Presidential primaries play an important role today in the decision of the party nomination.
- In the 1950s and 60s, most states did not hold primaries, the preferred methods were through a series of state party conventions.
McGovern-Fraser Commission
the commission established by the democratic party following the 1968 presidential election to recommend reforms to the presidential nomination process.
Advantages of McGovern-Fraser
- increased participation
- increased choice
- open to outsiders
- a gruelling race
Weaknesses of McGovern-Fraser
- widespread voter apathy and boredom
- voters are unrepresentative of the voting-age population
- process is far too expensive
- process is too dominated
- primaries can easily develop into bitter personal battles
- lack of peer review
- super delegates
Frank Bruni quote on primaries
‘primaries were more for entertainment that benefiting for the country the politically’
after 1980, democract VP selection
until 1984 the democratic presidential candidate Walter Mondale with tradition and announced his selection of New York Congresswomen Geraldine Ferraro as his running-mate four days before the democratic convention gathered in San Francisco.
Reasons to choose a VP
- Geographical spread – winning home state.
- Can they add something you can’t – such as Kamala Harris.
- Political experience – Obama picked Biden.
- Personality
Strategies for choosing VP
- Balanced Ticket
- Potential in government
- Party unity
What is a balanced ticket
A Pairing of presidential and vice-presidential candidates on a ticket who attract support for different reasons, thereby making the broadest appeal to voters.
where is the national aprty convention normally held
in a state that they want to pick up votes
formal functions of national party conventions
- choosing presidential candidate
- choosing the party’s vice presidential candidate
- deciding the party platform
Informal functions of national party conventions
- promoting party unity
- enthusing the party faithful
- enthusing odinary voters
Post-Convention bounce
- Opinion polls register the immediate effect of the conventions, with instant polls showing what, if any, increase the candidate has enjoyed because of the speech.
problems with current system of campaign finance
- The problem that the current system faces is very little effective regulation or ways to restrict or cap political donations, the mains sources of funding include self-funding and donations great and small.
What is a PAC and why were they established
Political action committee, They can raise and distribute money to favoured candidates, up to a maximum of $5,000. Many established politicians also form Leadership PACs as a way of raising money to help fund other candidates’ campaigns.
what did the bipartisan campaign reform act 2002
- Money contributed directly to a specific candidate, known as hard money, was limited.
what is the limit of donations after the BCRA 2002?
$2,800 per annum directly to a single candidate’s own campaign, and no more than $35,500 to a national political party.
how has the level of funding by candidates
federal funding will watch campaign funding, in order to introduce a voluntary cap
where does the most amount of money donated come as
soft money - independent expenditure, it is money spent indirectly to promote candidates or, more frequently, to attack opponents.
how well has feferal spending been?
Obama, Biden, Trump didn’t use it as they predicted they would be able to raise more without them.
what factors are more important than money
- friendly with lawmakers
- incumbency
is money important?
-Aside from high-profile examples of the biggest spenders going on to lose, such as Clinton in 2016, the link between spending and outcome is more nuanced.
-The highest-spending candidate won in only four out of the ten most expensive 2020 Senate races.
quote on money in election
Money cannot buy an American election, but there remains a strong sense that one must “pay to play”.
Argument of campaign finance reform
consitution vs corruption
where does the money go
- organisation
- campaigning
- media
why is election day less significant today
Americans will have voted before Election Day with 34 states now permitting some form of early voting
why is the incumbency factor so importnat?
Eight of the last 11 presidential elections have featured an incumbent president seeking another term.
why are the 3 cases which didn’t win so significant
all three presidents who lost their re-election bids had presided over generally failing economies in the United States.
what is the problem with the incumbency factor
This produces a knock-on effect of discouraging better-known and maybe stronger candidates from throwing their hats into the ring when an incumbent is standing for the other party.
advantages of incumbency
- Raise more money.
- Well-established name.
- Lacks a primary challenge.
- Use power to their advantage, foreign power – Israel Palestine.
- Are usually re-elected – only 4 who haven’t (Carter, Bush Snr, Trump, Ford).
Electoral resources
what is the elctoral college
The institution established by the Founding Fathers to indirectly elect the president and vice president.
What states doesn’t use the same system as the others
Maine and Nebraska
strengths of the electoral college
- preserves the voice of the small population states
- it tends to promote a two horse race
weakness of the electoral college
- small states are over represented
- wonner takes all system distorts result
- unfair to national thord parties
- rouge electors
- president and vice president of different parties
what is a rouge elector
An Elector in the Electoral College who casts their ballot for a candidate other than the one who won the popular vote in their state
possibel reform of the electoral college
- direct election
- congressional district system
- proportional systems
what is the october surprise and who will it impact
An event occurring late in the presidential campaign to the disadvantage of one candidate, leaving that candidate with little or no time to recover before Election Day, and will impact swing states
constitutional requirements for the house
- atleast 25
- citizen for 7 years
- must be a resident in the state they represent
constitutional requirements for the senate
- must be 30
- citizien for nine years
- must be a resident in the state which they represent
is there are strong feeling of incumbency in congress
yes
consituency services
provided by incumbent - meaning anything from helping an individual constituent to receive the correct level of service from a federal department or agency, to getting legislation passed that brings federal funds and benefits to the state or district.
coattails effect
A coattails effect occurs when a strong candidate for a party at the top of the ticket - for president, or in midterm elections for state governor - can help other party candidates get elected at the same time.
split-ticket voting
Voting for candidates of two or more different offices at the same election. People might vote for a republican president but a democrat member of congress. At a mid-term election, they vote for a Democrat Governor but a republican member of congress.
how can split ticket voting end
- split districts
phnomenon of split senate
back in 1975, 44 states had split Senate delegations — one senator from each party. By 1999, that number had fallen to 30, and by 2017 just 12 states had split Senate delegations. In other words, 38 states have both senators from the same party — another piece of evidence of strictly partisan voting.
propsitions/initiatives
An electoral device by which citizens of a state can place proposed laws - and in some states, proposed constitutional amendments - on the state ballot.
what do propositions allow citizens to do
enables citizens to bypass their state legislature by placing proposed laws and, in some states, constitutional amendments on the ballot.
direct proposition
In the direct process, proposals that qualify go directly on the ballot
indirect proposition
They are submitted to the state legislature, which must decide what further action should follow.
referendums
An electoral device by which voters can effectively veto a bill passed by their state legislature, available in all 50 states.
what happens in the process of a referendum
While the referendum is pending, the law does not take effect. If voters approve the law in the referendum, it takes effect as scheduled. If voters reject the law, it is null and void - a kind of popular veto.
what is a recall election
An electoral device by which voters in a state can remove an elected official from office before their term has expired.
