​3. What is the rational choice model of voting behaviour

Question 1

what is swing

Answer 1

Swing measures the net change in voter support for a party or candidate between two elections

e.g. if Party A received 40% of the vote in the last election and 45% in the current election, there is a 5% swing towards Party A

Question 2

how do you calculate swing

Answer 2

Calculated by averaging the % fall for one party and the % rise of another

Question 3

what is churn?

Answer 3

Churn refers to the gross movement of voters between parties or other options, regardless of whether the net result changes

e.g. if 10% of voters switch from Party A to Party B, but another 10% switch from Party B to Party A, there is no swing (net change is 0%), but there is 20% churn (total voter movement)

Question 4

What is the rational choice model of voting behaviour?

Answer 4

Rational Choice Model
(short-term factors)
- Argues that voters evaluate the parties and make a conscious choice based on a range of factors like their policies and reputation

Question 5

What is the spatial model of voting behaviour?

Answer 5

Spatial model
- Stresses the importance of positional voters and issues
- Theorises that parties will win if their policies match the positions taken by the average, majority voter

Question 6

What are salient issues?

Answer 6

Salient issues
- The issues that are considered to be the most important in an election
e.g. Economy, healthcare, education, taxation, crime, immigration

Question 7

What is the valence model of voting behaviour?

Answer 7

Valence model
- Parties will win if they appear to be the most capable of delivering good results on valence issues

Question 8

Why could ‘rational choice’ voting still be shaped by long-term factors?

Answer 8

Because of factors like:

• Party loyalty
• Upbringing
• Beliefs
• Economic position
• Trust
• Past events