3. The Malthusian Model, Demographics & Income Growth Flashcards
Who is the Author of the Malthusian Model, When was it published?
- Thomas Malthus
- 1798, called “Essay on the Principle of Population”
What does the Malthuisian Model Argue?
- That an increas ein real income increases population growth to the point where land and capital per person is reduced back to the point where real income is at it’s original level. (The Positive Check)
- That a decrease in real income will decrease population growth, as parents don’t want to bring children into poverty, such that real income will eventually be brought up to its original level. (Negative Check)
*Draw Graphcs Representing the Malthusian Model
- L against y, negative
- n against y, postitive
What are the implications of a correct Malthusian Model?
That real income will never change, because it will always be offset by population growth
Is or Was the Malthusian Model ever correct?
The evidense supporting the Malthusian Model collapsed after the industrial revolution, but was actually very strong prior to that. Examples include china in 1000AD, which was more technologically advanced but at a similar level of per worker income to Europe, and Ireland when potato farming was introduced, which could feed 2-3 more people and tripled the population over a century, resulting in little improvement to income.
How do changes in population growth occur?
Through Fertility and Mortality transitions
Define Life Expectancy at Birth
The number of years a newborn baby can be expected to live on average
What is The Mortality Transition?
The large decline in the prevalence of death that has occured worldwide, particularly in developed economies over the last two centuries
Why did the Mortality Transition occur?
- Increase in quality and quantity of food consumed (real income
- Improvements in public health (sewers, draining of swamps, ect)
- Increase in the quality and avaliablility of medical treatment.
What is the Fertility Transition?
The feritility transition is the sharp decrease in fetility rates that has occured mostly in developed countries over the last two centuries.
Why has the Fertility Transition occured?
- Contraception is not very important
- Reduction in the desired Fertility Rate due to:
- Decrease in mortality rates (delayed)
- Increased value of working substituting away from child-bearing
- Resource flows between parents-Children, a child of 12 can no longer pay for themselves, existance of pensions
- The Quality Quantity tradeoff, where it is much more valueable to have fewer high quality children, due to increases in the value and decreases in the cost of eduction and reduction in mortality rates (risk).
How does the Solow-Swann & Malthusian Model Differ?
- Malthusian focus’s on populations interaction with natural resources, SS focus’s on population and capital.
- In the Malthusian model population and income are endogenously (internally) dealt with, in the SS model population growth is exogenous.
Define TFR
Total Fertility Rate: The total number of children a woman would have if she lived her entire child bearing years and experienced the current age specific fertility rate of each different age.
(Mortality NOT considered)
Define NRR
The Net Rate of Reproduction; The number of daughters that each girl who is born can be expected to give birth to assuymin she lives her life with the same age specific fertility and mortality rates as the population.
