3 - Equities Flashcards
Explanations for beta/volatility anomaly
Investors are leverage constrained so they choose high beta stocks to tilt their portfolios towards high volatility. Psychological preference for lottery stocks.
Typical portfolio construction (equities)
Build Signals
Combine Signals
Neutrality (beta, market, cash, vol, size neutral)
Control risk across sectors, regions signals
Volatility targeting
Active weights constraints (region-level, stock-level)
Turnover constraints (minimize tracking error, overall turnover constraint)
What is turnover
When a trading strategy involves high levels of turnover, it means that the portfolio’s holdings are being frequently replaced. Problem: trading costs, bid-ask spreads, etc.
Value measures in equities
Book-to-market, div yield, earnings yield, sales yield, ROA
Behavioural vs. Risk explanations of Value
Behavioural: Overreaction of investors to growth stocks.
Risk: Value stocks tend to struggle in deleveraging when times are bad -> high book values, when they can get over the slump they find themselves in good positions.
Factors that could slowdown/speed-up pricing of information
Community attention (# of analysts covering)
Size of firm
Complexity of business
Directness of effects
Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE)
Rank stocks on surprise vs. analyst consensus (analyst consensus is not a “direct” measure)
Earnings Announcement Returns (EAR)
Rank based on earnings around announcement dates (3 days), holds for following quarters. More robust, incorporates other information like sales, margins, investment.
Problem with Earnings Momentum?
Getting harder and harder to exploit, especially in mature markets
How to avoid Momentum crashes?
To some extent by controlling for beta and volatility
Five factor model factors:
Value, Size, Quality and Investment.
What is Quality in the context of FF5
Usually associated with profitability and safety of the firm. Metrics like: Operating Cash Flow over Assets (how much cash it’s generating in core business); Cash Return on Capital Invested; ROE; Distance to default.
What is Investment in the context of FF5
Consists in portfolios formed on negative change in total assets. Logic: avoid firms over-investing.
What are Governance factors
Investment, financing and accruals, based on the feeling that management knows best.
Financing factors
Net cash flow from financing activities (stock issuance, repurchase and dividend payments)