3 Flashcards
Monte Carlo Simulation
evaluate plan or decision where there is uncertainty (random factor) involved.
1. Select random variable values
2. Calculate outcome with random variables and controllable inputs.
3. repeat (n times).
Three components to simulation; two combine for the third.
Controllable Inputs, Random Variables, and Output
Discrete Distribution
finite numbers of values are possible.
Uniform Distribution
infinite values in a range are equally likely of happening.
Normal Distribution
infinite values under a range in a normal distribution.
Verification
check that scripting and calculations work as intended.
Validation
check that output is possible in the real world.
Simulation pros and cons
Pros
-simplifies a problem
-easy to tweak
Cons
-only a simulation
-assumptions are made