2.6.4 Exchange rate systems Flashcards
Types of exchange rates?
- Free floating ER
- Managed floating ER
- Fixed ER
- Currency board system ER
Free floating exchange rate
- Currency value set purely by market forces.
- Strength of currency S=D derives external value of currency in markets.
- No intervention by central banks, finds own market level - no target.
- External value of currency not explicit target of monetary policy.
Advantages of free floating ER
- Monetary policy anatomy = greater flexability, won’t be contrained by ER considerations.
- Shock absorbtion - more effective.
- Redcued speculative attacks.
- Trade balance adjustments.
- Currency reserves = doesn’t need to hold them as no specific targets.
Disadvantages of free floating ER
- ER volatility = rapid and unpreeictable flucuations so uncertainty for businesses engaged in trade.
- Currency risk for businesses + investors.
- Inflation pass-through = leads to changes in import prices, impacts domestic inflation.
- Loss of ER as policy tool.
Fixed exchange rate
- Banks fix currency value - pegged to one or more currencies.
- Must hold enough FX reserve to intervene when needed to maintain fixed currency peg.
- Pegged rate becomes official rate.
- Adjustable peg = occasional realignment may be needed, leading to either de or revaluation
Advantages of fixed ER
- Price stability = since influcuations in ER are minimised, helps control inflation.
- Reduced ER risks, eliminated.
- Monetary disipline = adds credability and means less likely cuts in IR.
Disadvantages of fixed ER
- Loss of monetary soverignty - IR can’t be used for domestic purposes.
- Large reserves of foreign currency may be needed for gov intervention.
- Lack of adjustments to current account imbalences through ER changes.
Manages floating exchange rate
Where exchange rates are allowed to fluctuate freely in the foreign exchange market, but central banks may intervene occasionally to stabilize or influence the currency’s value.
Advantages of managed floating ER
- Allows market forces to determine exchange rates, reflecting supply and demand.
- Offers flexibility for adjustments in response to economic conditions.
- May reduce speculative activities compared to fixed exchange rate systems.
Disadvantages of managed floating ER
- Volatility: Can lead to exchange rate volatility due to market forces.
- Businesses face uncertainty as currency values can change rapidly.
- Requires effective coordination of monetary policies to avoid excessive currency fluctuations.
- Central bank interventions can be challenging to implement effectively.
Currency union
Multiple countries sharing a common single currency e.g. EU and Euro
Advantages of currency unions
- Greater certainty for businesses that trade with other members.
- No costs involved in converting currencies between members
- No worries about ER being over valued or under valued against other members.
- Greater price transapency for consumers.
Disadvantages of currency unions
- Individual countries lose the right to set their own monetary policy.
- Businesses may be unable to compete with lower- cost producers therefore cannot benefit from a falling exchange rate.
- Fiscal policy needs to be used more widely to correct for imbalances across the currency union area (this is unpopular in the EU).
- Countries may have to ‘bail out’ other members that run into financial problems.
- Inflation target set in currency union zone may not be appropriate for UK - ‘deflationary bias’.
Determinants of exchange rates
- Interest rate movements
- Foreign trade
- Relative inflation
- FDI
- Expectations
Determinants of ER - explained
Interest rates
- IR increase = inflow of ST ‘hot money’ to take advantage of higher IR offered by UK financial institions.
- Higher IR = rise in ER
- Lower IR = fall in ER