2.2 - Financial Planning & 2.3 - Managing Finance Flashcards
Time series analysis
A sales forecasting technique in which past annual sales figures arranged in chronoligical order (time series data) are extrapolated to predict future sales. Time series analysis can be used to predict and identify trends, seasonal fluctuations, cyclical fluctuations (with economic cycle) and random fluctuations.
Uses of sales forcasting
- Inform cashflow forecasts to support financial management.
- Inventory managment and purchasing of raw materials - ordering well in advance can help build positive relationships with suppliers - bulk discount?
- Optimising capacity utilisation by managing staffing levels and macheniry to improve efficiency.
Name 3 factors effecting sales forecasts
- Consumer trends: seasonal variations, fashion, LT trends
- Economic variables: interest rates, stage in economic cycle (GDP, unemployment), inflation, exchange rates
- Actions of competitors - pricing, promotion, product, place
Define semi-variable cost and give examples
A cost comprised of both fixed and variable components.
Example: full time staff that also work overtime (semi-variable labour cost)
Define short run and long run from a business context
Short run: the time period in which at least one factor of production is fixed
Long run: the time period where factors of production are variable.
Factors of production are land, labour, capital and enterprise.
Define contribution and give formulas for unit and total contribution.
Contribution per unit is the amount of money each unit sold contributes towards paying fixed costs.
* Contribution per unit: selling price per unit - variable costs per unit
Total contribution can be calculated either by:
* Total revenue - total variable costs
* Unit contribution × number of units sold.
Give the formula for profit that includes contribution
Profit = total contribution - fixed costs
Define margin of safety
The range of output over which a profit is made.
The amount sales can fall before the BEP is reached.
Actual sales - break even sales
Can be expressed in pounds or units
Give benefit of using break even analysis
Showing break even analysis on a business plan can help businesses to obtain finance.
Identify the likely influence to BEP of a change in a financial variable like costs or selling price.
Assist with setting sales targets
Give limitations of break even analysis
- The BEP is a prediction based on potentially unreliable data. Doesn’t account for external factors like inflation which could alter costs and sales.
- Assumes all stock is sold - doesn’t account for buffer stock or falling demand for example
- Total revenue and total cost lines are not always linear (straight). For example, as output increases economies of scale reduced unit cost so revenue may increase to form a curved line.
- It is hard to accurately allocate fixed costs to business with multiple products (large product portfolio)
- Stepped fixed costs (e.g. increase in rent) make it difficult to use break even analysis
Define two types of bugetting
- Zero-based bugets - a financial plan agreed in advance in which each cost must be justified ‘from scratch’ for each period
- Historical budgets - a financial plan agreed in advance which uses financial data from previos years as a template for the new budget. Adjustments can be made to account for expected changes in factors like inflation .ect
Describe the contents of a statement of comprehensive income (Profit and loss account)
Includes the 3 types of profit (gross, operating and net) and a break down of the costs deducted from revenue to get to these profit figures. e.g. gross profit broken down into cost of sales and revenue. Allways shows figures for current and previous trading year. May include exceptional items - unexpected one-off costs.
Distinguish between profit and cash
Cash is the money that flows in an out of a business in a specific period. However, profit is the money remaining once total costs have been deducted from total revenue.
There are different reasons why cash and profit are not the same such as:
* Sales from customers that pay on credit are considered profit, although the business has not yet received the cash.
* External finance like loans increases cash but is not considered revenue (or profit)
* The purchase of fixed assets is not treated as a cost in the profit and loss account
Define amortisation
Amortization is similar to depreciation, but it applies to intangible assets such as trademarks. It refers to incrementally writing off an intangible asset over its useful life.
What are the factors of production
Inputs needed for creating a good or service, which include land, labour, capital and enterprise