2.2 Financial Planning Flashcards
What is sales forecasting?
A predict of the future revenues based on past sales figures.
Key factors affecting sales forecasting
-Seasonal factors
-Consumer spending, habits, fashions
-Economic Growth
-Actions of competitors
Define Extrapolation
Extrapolation uses trends established from historical data to forecast the future
What is a moving average?
-A moving average takes a data series and “smoothes” the fluctuations in data to show an average
benefits of using Extrapolation
-Simple method of forecasting
-Not much data required
-Quick and Cheap
Disadvantages of Extrapolation
-Unreliable if there are significant fluctuations in historical data
-Assumes past tends will continue
-Ignore qualitative factors
Define Correlation
Correlation looks at the strength of a relationship between two variables
Circumstances where sales forecasts are likely to be inaccurate
-Business is new
-Technological change disrupts market
-Demand highly sensitive to changes in income
-Changes in market share
-Product is a fashion item
Define Demand
The amount of a product that customers are prepared to buy
Define Revenues
The Value of units sold
Equation for Revenue
Revenue = Price x Quantity
Two ways for a business to increase revenue?
-Increase quantity sold e.g by cutting price/incentives
-Achieve a higher selling price e.g add value
Define costs
Costs are amounts that a business incurs in order to make goods and/ or provide services
Define variable costs
costs which change as output arises eg wages, raw materials
Define fixed costs
Costs which do not change when output varies eg rents & salaries
Examples of variable costs
-Raw materials
-Bought in stocks
-Wages based on hours worked or amount produced
-Marketing costs based on sales
Examples of fixed costs
-Rents
-Salaries
-Advertising
-Design and development
Equation for total costs
total costs = fixed costs + variable costs
What is contribution
-Contribution looks at the profit made on individual products
-Used to calculate how many items need to be sold to cover all costs
Contribution per unit formula
Contribution = Selling price - variable costs
Total contribution formula
Total contribution = Contribution per unit x number of units sold
Assumptions of break even analysis
-Selling price per unit stays the same
-Variable costs vary
-All output is sold
-Fixed costs do not vary with output
Define break even
The point at which total revenue and total costs are the same business neither making a profit or a loss.
Define margin of safety
The difference between actual output and break even output