21- Psychology of Conspiracy Theories

Question 1

Conspiracy theory

Answer 1

• The belief that a number of actors join together in secret agreement, in order to achieve a hidden goal which is perceived to be unlawful or malevolent

Question 2

Is belief in conspiracy theories abnormal?

Answer 2

Belief in Conspiracy Theories Over Time
* Examined letters to the editor of the New York Times and Chicago Tribune between
1890 and 2010 for content related to conspiracy theories
* No change in belief in conspiracy theories

• Belief in conspiracy theories is common
• Some conspiracy theories turn out to be true
• But most are false

Belief in Conspiracy Theories Can be Damaging
* Important and damaging consequences for:
- Health
- Voting behaviour and politics
- Support for societal problems

Summary
* Conspiracy theories are irrational, but not abnormal or pathological
* Have important and potentially damaging consequences for society

Question 3

When are people most vulnerable to believing conspiracy theories?

Answer 3

The Role of Fear and Uncertainty
* Belief in conspiracy theories increases during times where society at
large is experiencing more fear and uncertainty
Societal fear/uncertainty….motivation to understand why events happened… vigilance… belief in conspiracy theories
Study:
* Do feelings of uncertainty lead to increased belief in conspiracy theories?
* Method:
* Experimental manipulation:
- Uncertainty condition: “Describe what emotions the thought of being uncertain
arouses in you.”
- Control: “Describe what emotions the thought of watching TV arouses in you.” * *Read bogus news article about powerful opposition leader in Benin dying in a
car accident
- Moral condition: government not corrupt
- Immoral condition: government is corrupt *Ratings of belief in conspiracy theory
- To what extent was the Benin government involved in car accident?
Results:
* Uncertainty increased belief in conspiracy theories but only if government seen as
immoral

Question 4

Who is most vulnerable to believing conspiracy theories?

Answer 4

Belief Mindset
* Belief in supernatural is strongest predictor of belief in conspiracy theories
* Suggests that people that are vulnerable to conspiracy theories are more generally characterized by a belief mindset
- Desire to make sense of the world through intuition
- Tendency for analytic (vs. intuitive) thinking makes people less likely to believe
conspiracy theories and supernatural beliefs

Characteristics of a Belief Mindset
1. Illusory pattern perception: Seeing meaningful relationships between stimuli where none exists
- Based on normal, adaptive human tendency to perceive patterns
* Are people who have a greater tendency for illusory pattern perception more susceptible to belief in conspiracy theories?
* Method:
* Experimentally manipulated pattern perception
- Seeing actual patterns: Evaluate works of art by an “artist well‐known for his regular design and alignment of figures” (Vasarely)
- Seeing illusory patterns: Evaluate works of art by an “artist well-known for his
random brush strokes and irregular figures” (Pollock)
* “To what extent do you see a pattern in this painting?”
* Evaluated belief in conspiracy theories and supernatural beliefs
Results:
* Suggests that illusory pattern perception, not general pattern perception, is related
to belief in conspiracy theories
* Greater tendency to perceive patterns in Pollock paintings predicted belief in conspiracy theories (r = 0.36) and supernatural beliefs (r = 0.32)
* But tendency to perceive patterns in Vasarely paintings was not
related to beliefs in conspiracy theories
2. Illusory agency detection: Seeing intentionality in the actions of others where none exists
- Based on normal, adaptive human tendency to perceive intentionality and attribute
responsibility
Ex: triangle video
* Greater illusory detection of agency associated with greater belief in
conspiracy theories (r = 0.22) and supernatural beliefs (r = 0.22)

Question 5

Intergroup Conflict and Conspiracy Theories

Answer 5

Characteristics of intergroup conflict related to conspiracy theories:
1. Feelings of outgroup threat
* Conspiracy theories are only about threatening outgroups
* Creates societal fear and uncertainty
2. Ingroup identification
* “Us vs. them” mentality
* Increases suspiciousness of other groups
* Motivates a person to try to make sense of an event

When feeling threatened by outgroup…
strongly connected with ingroup identity…greater desire to make sense of threatening event…belief in conspiracy theories

• Method: Study conducted in Indonesia
• Rated belief in conspiracy theory:
• “Did the terrorists who committed attacks in Indonesia conspire with Western
  people?”
• Rated ingroup identification:
• How much do they identify with Muslims
• Rated outgroup threat:
• How threatening do they perceive the West to be to Muslims in general
  Results:
• Higher identification with Muslims predicted greater belief in conspiracy theory, but only if generally believed West to be threatening

Implications
* Minority groups will be more susceptible to conspiracy theories
- E.g., Black Americans believe conspiracy theories more strongly than White Americans
* People on political extremes will be more susceptible to conspiracy theories

Question 6

Putting it together

Answer 6

Situation: Fear and uncertainty,
often due to outgroup threat
+
Person: Belief mindset: Illusory pattern
perception + agency detection & Ingroup identification
=
Belief in conspiracy theories

Question 7

How Can Conspiracy Theories be Reduced?

Answer 7

• Empathy + respect:
• Validate fear and uncertainty
• Understand why they believe what they do
• Provides a respectful context to then share scientific and rational explanations
  for an event
• Empowering citizens through procedural justice:
• Leadership that makes people feel like they have a say in decisions that affect
  them and that their opinions matter
• Transparency and accountability