2023 Mentorship Flashcards
How do you project targets?
- In Standard Deviations (FIB)
- You look for a confluence of standard deviations at key market reversal points.
- First target above/below a liquidity pool.
- Second target beyond the liquidity pool.
- Aiming at the standard deviation level beyond equal highs/lows.
What is a Opening Gap (RTH GAP)?
- Yesterdays Close to Equity Open are the boundaries.
- This range is most likely being traded into.
- Look for PD Arrays within the RTH GAP in ETH.
What is a PD Array?
- Volume Imbalance
- Order Block
- FVG/BPR
- Rejection Block
- NWOG
- NDOG
- Implied FVG
What defines a High Probability Setup?
CLEAR DIRECTION: DRAW ON LIQUIDITY
1. Liquidity Taken
2. Displacement
3. Structure Shift
4. Premium-Discount PD Array
5. Entries within Premium and 50% of Discount.
6. SMT
7. Market Symmetry
8. Time of Day
What is a High Resistance Liquidity Run?
- Short-term stops will be raided more likely.
- Dollar and Index Futures move into the same direction.
- Index Futures are dislodged.
How do you trade High Resistance Liquidity Runs?
- You wait for a short-term swing to be taken out.
- Wait for a Breaker or MB.
- Entry: PD Array
What defines a NDOG (New Day Opening Gap)?
How many NDOGs do we Look-Back?
- Time: 04:59pm NY time - 06:00pm NY Time (16:59 - 18:00)
- Look-Back: 2 weeks, as much as 10 NDOGS
- Real Dynamic Support and Resistance.
- Price has to offer sell-side and buy-side within that GAP.
- We want to see a significant separation - GAP - not like 1-3 ticks.
- At each new trading week, discard the previous weeks NDOG and begin with this weeks first NDOG, extend it out.
What are Bullish & Bearish Breakers ?
Price has to take Liquidity on Both sides (like CHoCH)*
1. They define a structure shift.
2. Bullish Breaker: Highest Up-closed candle before the drop down, taking out SSL.
3. Bearish Breaker: Lowest Down-Closed candle before the rally up, taking out BSL.
What defines a NWOG GAP?
Friday’s Close - Monday NY AM Open.
What defines a NWOG (New Week Opening Gap)?
- Time: Fridays Closing Price 04:59 pm - Sunday’s Opening Price 06:00 pm.
- NWOG is a real GAP. When the market moves away from that GAP, it refers back to that in the future.
How does price behave around a NWOG Actual?
- Extend the NWOG and CE through the entirety of the week.
- It acts like real support-resistance.
- This gap will act like a magnet and Price has to offer buy-side and sell side within that NWOG.
- Smart Money refers to NWOG’s for buying and selling.
NWOG: Which levels are sensitive?
- The midpoint level is highly sensitive.
- and Quarters.
NWOG: How many weeks do we look back?
- Use that same opening range for every week within the same month. The algo will refer back to it.
- Look-back: we go back as much as 5 weeks or 60 days.
How do you define a FVG?
It’s the empty space between 3 candles.
What are the most important price levels in a bullish FVG?
- High,
- Upper Quarter (25),
- Midpoint (CE).
What are the most important price levels in a bearish FVG?
- Low
- Midpoint (CE)
- Quarter
How do you define an Implied FVG?
- A Displacement Candle that is…
- Overlapped by overlapping wicks.
- CE of either wicks reveal the implied FVG.
How many PD Arrays need to fail to classify as a failure and possible reversal?
3 PD Arrays need to fail.
What are 5 handles in SP500?
5 handles means a change of 5 points in the price quote. For example, if SP500 goes from 4000.42 to 4005.42, then it has moved up by 5 handles.
What happens if a bullish PD Array breaks?
- When a bullish PD Array breaks, it becomes an inversion PD Array. Think like support becomes resistance.
- Think like support becomes resistance. It’s a change in the state of delivery.
How does the Algorithm interpret Wicks?
- Wicks are viewed by the algorithm as a gap. That’s why it’s going to reprice back to it.
What is likely to happen when price runs a liquidity pool, fill a FVG and does a Breaker?
- Price will test the breaker and continue the move higher/lower.
- Price won’t return to fill a FVG.
When can you use the IOFED entry?
- Anytime to make sure to be in the trade.
- To pyramid.
There are only 2 reasons why price moves up or down. What are they?
- To run liquidity. (Short - Term Swings).
- To fill a PD Array, reprice into it and balances the FVG.
- Time Delivery: It’s TIME Bases, MACROS
What is the anatomy of a FVG?
- Low,
- High,
- Midpoint,
- Quarters.
Which FVG quadrant is used by high frequency algorithms?
- When Bullish, the upper quadrant.
- When Bearish, the lower quadrant.
What is an event horizon PD Array?
Halfway between a NWOG and the closest NWOG is the Event Horizon. It will not allow price to escape the draw to the NWOG & it will create a surge towards the NWOG it got too “close” to but yet to reached.
What sets a Large Range day into a higher time frame target up?
A cautious New York AM session.
What is a Mitigation Block?
- Swing Failure,
- It’s a shift in structure.
What are the only 2 reasons why price moves up or down.
- To run liquidity. (Short - Term Swings)
- To fill a FVG.
How do you qualify and disqualify a potential PD Array, Entry?
You have to confirm the PD with DXY.
What is institutional order flow (IOF)?
If we are bullish then we want to see down closed candles to hold price up and vice versa.
What does the macro: 09:50 - 10:10 - do?
- Price will run for Liquidity or
- fill a FVG. (Judas Swing)
- If it hasn’t done anything during that macro, it will tell us what it will most likely do during the lunch hour from 11:00 am: Lunch Macro: 10:50-11:10 am.
How do you confirm a new high/low or a liquidity run?
- You have to confirm if DXY did the opposite to validate the new high or low.
- If DXY didn’t confirm the move, then it was a run on liquidity.
What do you do when a weekly objective has been hit?
Once a weekly objective is reached we stop!
What is the NFP protocol?
During that trading week we only trade till Wednesday NY AM session.
Thursday and Friday = Low probability and low precision setups.
You can trade Friday, 30m after the news release.
How far can price go after a liquidity run?
TO THE NEXT
- NWOG,
- NDOG.
Lunch Macro: What is unfinished business?
- Sell - Side Liquidity Run
- Buy - Side Liquidity Run
- RTH GAP fill
What are FVGs?
- Entry Point
- Target
- Sentiment Shift from buy to sell or sell to buy program.
What if we had a previous wide range day?
The NY AM session will be problematic.
What if during the London Session we had a huge move? What are your first thoughts?
- STOP! SLOW DOWN. FOCUS ON THE PM SESSION.
- AM SESSION WILL BE CHOPPY - SEEK AND DESTROY.
- Retail is going to chase the move. Look for their Stops.
What does the influence of mixed stock index averages create? How do you trade that day?
- Fickle, rangebound conditions.
- Reduce your risk. Take the day off.
What is your Trading Routine?
Macro
1. Seasonal Tendency
2. DXY, 10 year T-Note, 10 Year YIELDS
Pre-Market
1. Are there any HI News? When?
2. What are the HTF Arrays? Where is the Liquidity?
3. Mark the London Session Up. What happened?
4. Where is price in relation to NY Midnight Open?
5. Mark the NDOG up.
6. Are we above or below Current/Previous NWOG?
7. What does DXY do? Are the Index futures aligned?
8. High or Low resistance conditions?
9. Narrative and Plan for the day.
Equity Open
10. Mark up the RTH GAP.
11. Where is the Measuring GAP?
12. Wait for the Opening Range to unfold.
13. Look for the Silver Bullet.
Why do you have to wait for the opening range to unfold?
- Fake Move happens here.
- Do not rush into a trade. You have the whole day.
How behaves price to a FOMC release?
- FOMC is typically a 2 stage delivery.
- At 2:00 pm ET, there is an initial price run, that many times gets reversed harder than the initial price run.
- Trade the 2:30 - 4:00 pm session during FOMC.
- Ignore the AM session.
The day after FOMC, on what session do we focus?
New York PM session.
- FOMC is a large range previous day.
- AM is Choppy, HRLR and Seek & Destroy.
What’s important to know when studying ICT concepts?
- Not all ICT tools are useful for you. Choose the ones that resonate with you.
- Give it time, commit to it or fail!
How can I use the Opening GAP (RTH GAP) to formulate a BIAS for the session?
- Sets the tone how we can trade intraday.
- Are we opening above? Then we are in a premium in relation to the Opening GAP.
- Are we opening below? Then we are in a discount in relation to the Opening GAP.
- Is there a Liquidity Pool nearby?
What happens if we don’t fill the RTH GAP during the AM Session?
- We’re going to expand until we get into a HTF PD Array. Once we hit that, typically during lunch hour,
- then during Lunch we have some measure of retracement to morning session stops.
- It can be exaggerated beyond that if we don’t have filled the RTH GAP.
What happens if we fill the RTH GAP in the AM Session?
If price fills the Opening GAP and then runs higher to fill a PD Array, then retraces during lunch time, our expectation for the PM session would be a continuation.
When you back-test, what questions do you need to keep in mind?
- Who is winning right now?
- Who got hurt?
- Who is being targeted?
What are LR conditions?
- Market Symmetry: Dollar Bullish, Index Futures Bearish and Vice Versa.
What is the pitfall of a LRLR Conditions?
“I want to repeat it right now.” That’s the mental trap. Wrap up and go home!
What are the signs of a manipulated market?
- Dollar is ranging.
- Index Futures and FX pairs are rallying.
The real move happens after Index Futures & FX does a higher high or lower low. (HRLR Conditions)
Generally, What are the characteristics of Thursdays in a weekly profile?
- Tends to create the opposite end of the weekly range.
- We can anticipate the market to top out and always look for a reason the to trade back into the weekly range.
What does a Macro do?
- It rolls against whoever is profitable right now.
- Or it completes a HTF PD Array.
What is the CONTEXT of a BIAS?
- Quarterly Shift Seasonal Tendency.
- Weekly Range Expansion in the direction of that seasonal tendency.
- Highest Risk with Quarterly Tendency or Pyramiding In.
What are your trades for?
Your trades are there to make money, not to make you feel better or pass time gambling.
What time is the Pre-Market Window?
07:00 - 08:30 NY Time
When can you trade during the Pre-Market Window?
- Before a High Impact News Release at 08:30.
- After a US Holiday.
What are the characteristic of a High Resistance Liquidity Run?
- DXY is ranging.
- Short-term stops being raided often before continuing.
- Markets are not aligned.
- Previous Large Range Day. (AM Session HRLR)
- London Large Range and Target Hit.
- Price traded into a Daily Target, PD Array, before Equity Open.
What are the characteristics of an Opening Range?
- We observe price for the first 30 minutes to unfold.
- Once that first 30 minutes is transpired, you want to identify your 15m, 5m and 1m, buy-side and sell-side liquidity pools and where all the inefficiencies are.
- Opening GAP (RTH) Did we fill it? Where is price in relation to it?
- You work with this markup from 10:00 - 12:00.
- Repricing Macro Initiates: 09:50 - 10:10.
- Wait for the AM Silver Bullet
What do you need to respect during the AM Session after a US Holiday?
- US Holiday interrupted the normal flow of price, sentiment, trading, speculation, order entry. A lot of folks sit on their hands the AM Session after the US holiday.
- On the heels of any holiday that impacts trading normal hours, anytime that occurs, the very next trading session, the morning is very, very low probability. Meaning it could be choppy initially or the entire morning session could be awash. But it’s beneficial to observe it.
- If the morning session offers nothing that brings your attention to a specific setup, a draw on liquidity, then come back for the afternoon session.
- If you expect the morning session to be problematic, look for an opportunity during the Pre-Market 07:00-08:30 time window.
- It can create Seek and Destroy profile.
What are the pitfalls trading US Holidays?
- US Holidays, are abbreviated trading days.
- They are low probability.
What happens if price did a
1. run on liquidity
2. Reached P-D Array
- during London or Premarket - before 09:30 Equity Open?
- Expect a choppy session.
- Focus on the Lunch Macro at 10:50 - 11:10.
- Focus on the PM session.
When can we adopt the 07:00 - 08:30 time window?
- If we suspect that the market will be very hard to read due to news drivers within the upcoming session or day.
- If there is a High Impact news release at 08:30.
What time is the Repricing Macro?
- It happens from 09:50 - 10:10.
What are the characteristics of the NY Lunch Macro?
- It happens from 10:50 - 11:10.
- On Ranging days.
- In trending markets they won’t form.
- The Algo stimulates the volume and sentiment going into Lunchtime.
- It’s likely moving into the direction where liquidity hasn’t been taken yet.
When is the PM Session Open?
13:30 - 16:00 NY time
What are the characteristics of the Final Macro Hour?
- It’s Time Sensitive: 15:15 -15:45.
- It happens on ranging days.
- It won’t happen on trending days.
- Macro will target an untapped point of liquidity.
After 3 pm New York time, a 30-minute interval is considered a macro, and the algorithm will execute a market-on-close run, targeting an untapped point of liquidity.
How behaves price usually to a FOMC release?
- FOMC is typically a 2 stage delivery.
- At 2:00 pm ET, there is an initial price run, that many times gets reversed harder than the initial price run.
- Trade the 2:00 - 4:00 pm session during FOMC.
- Ignore the AM session.
Dollar: What is Risk On?
- Dollar is Bearish
- Foreign Currencies and Indices move bullish.
- If dollar is going lower it’s going to be very easy for other markets to rise and
a. your buy models can be trusted.
b. Your institutional order flow when it’s bullish can be trusted,
c. your discount arrays can be trusted.
Dollar: What is Risk Off?
- Dollar Bullish
- Foreign Currencies and Indices move bearish.
- If dollar is going higher it’s going to be very easy for other markets to drop and
a. your sell models can be trusted.
b. Your institutional order flow when it’s bearish can be trusted,
c. your premium arrays can be trusted.
Dollar: Is in a Consolidation?
- Market is being manipulated if Index Futures Rally.
- That makes it difficult to find a clear direction.
- Markets may create a Seek & Destroy profile.
- Go and enjoy your day!
Intermarket Analysis: What markets do you need to observe?
- Nasdaq, Dow Jones, SP500 and DXY.
- 10 Year T-Note
- 10 year YIELD
What is a symmetrical market (LRLR)?
- When we see a lower low in the NQ, DOW, ES and a higher high in the DXY.
- If at any time we see one of them crack, it’s telling you that there’s a sentiment shift unfolding.
What is a asymmetrical market (HRLR)?
- NQ, DOW, SP500 did a lower low.
- DXY did not.
- This is a SMT divergence.
- A sentiment shift may be unfolding.
What are the characteristics of a Measuring FVGAP and where to locate it?
- It’s the FVG at the 50% of a price run.
- They usually don’t fill.
- If they fill, you treat them the same.
When do my Setups print?
- London Silver Bullet: 3:00 - 4:00 AM.
- Pre-Market: 07:00 - 08:30 On days with HI NEWS DATA release at 08:30.
- Silver Bullet (10am -11am FVG)
- Lunch Macro 10:50 - 11:00. On Ranging Days.
- Run on Stops Macro: 11:50 - 12:10.
- PM Open 01:30: Run on Stops and Continuation.
- Silver Bullet 02:00 - 03:00 PM.
- Final Hour Macro: 03:15 - 03:45 Run into untapped Liquidity.
What are the Silver Bullet Setup Rules?
- It’s a Continuation or Reversal Trade of the HTF IOF.
- It shows up every day.
- The move starts in the 09:50 - 10:10 Macro.
- Wait for 10am.
- Time Specific: The setup forms between 10am - 11am.
- There should be a displacement in a direction you are anticipating. Once it occurs, you wait for a OPPOSING FVG to print. Expect price to trade into it and then reprice to a pool of liquidity.
- It must offer more than 5 handles.
- TP = 5 handles.
What is one of the NWOG Secret?
Where does the NWOG exist in that old order flow, swing high, swing low?
When do you kill a trade?
When price closes outside the FVG. It shouldn’t print any bodies outside the FVG.
This FVG becomes an Inversion FVG.
What is the SICK Sister Approach?
- Who is the leader?
- The lagger will catch up to it.
You can execute on the lagger.
Dallor can be rallying or ranging.
How can you execute an OB entry?
As soon as the next candle trades inisde the OB candle range, you can execute.
What do you do when 3 PD Arrays fail?
- Anticipate a Reversal.
- Take Partials.
- Close the Trade.
What is spotty price action?
- You can’t find a clean PD Array
- You can’t formulate a low risk idea.
What validates an Inversion FVG? What do you wanna see?
You need to see a
1. Close above it and
2. a new candle trading into the previous candle.
What is an immediate rebalance?
- When price rebalances a GAP right away and rockets off. It won’t create a FVG.
- That happens when everything is in sync. When we are in LR Conditions.
- You can take partials at 5 handles and let the rest run further.
What is Narrative?
The understanding of
1. what the algorithm will do next.
2. Why it should do it and
3. when…?
What can you expect when price did a 3 stage run on liquidity (SSL or BSL)?
- It can consolidate.
- Run the opposing liquidity.
Forex - Dollar Relation
What happens when the Dollar ranges?
- Exotic pairs will be rallying because they aren’t rooted in the dollar.
- You will find trending days that way: Dollar ranges = Minors/Exotics rally.
What’s a good way to supercharge the Silver Bullet?
When you trade aligned with a HTF bias, with a weekly buy or sell program and seasonal tendency.
NWOG
What do you need to consider if there was a shortened Friday session due to a holiday on Friday or Sunday?
- It messes the Current NWOG up.
- You can’t trust it.
- Look for the closest NWOG within the last 60 days that is in near proximity to the “shortened” NWOG. If there is non, then you trade without it.
- Draw the current-shortened NWOG as a “shadow”.
Volume Imbalance
When is a imbalance balanced?
- Once a candle body seals the VI, we can delete it as a reference point.
- The Higher Timeframe is parent to the lower time frame. We want to see the HTF volume imbalance sealed with a body on that time frame.
If there is no Silver Bullet Setup, what is your next macro?
11:50-12:10 Macro
- Price will run the protective AM orders.
What is an ITH-ITL?
- It has a swing low/high on each side.
- When price rebalances a FVG and displaces away.
What is the MMX Cycle?
- DOL,
- MSS,
- Short-Term Ranges form and will be respected until
- DOL is reached.
- The process resets and restarts.
- MSS for a deeper retracement.
- Price seeks liquidity (short term highs/lows) within the ITL/ITH range in premium-discount.
What are LTH-LTL?
They are on the “outside”, external range liquidity.
Until when should the ITH-ITL hold?
- Until price takes the BSL or SSL target out.
- Until the MMXM is completed.
What is high probability?
We need a one sided weekly narrative to where price will draw liquidity next…
What is the seasonal tendency from May-June for SP500?
In May up to the 1st, 2nd week of June the seasonal tendency is bearish. We favour shorts in index futures. “Sell May and go away.” This is a general bias.
What are the London Session characteristics?
- 02:00 - 04:00 Sweet Spot.
- High of day, low of day is printed in London, most of the time.
- 2:00-3:00 Silver Bullet
What are the characteristics of the London Session Setup?
Turtle Soup Setups
1. Judas Swing into a
2. 15m-5m Liquidity Pool.
3. Between 02:00 - 04:00am.
4. 3:00-4:00 Silver Bullet.
5. Inside the 25% of the Previous Days Range. Price shouldn’t breach the 50% of the PDR.
The best shorts will happen in the lower 50% of the previous days range if bearish.
Where will the best shorts or longs form?
- Within the lower/upper 25% -50% of the Previous Days Range.
- Above old highs/lows, 15-5m, inside of that range.
- The best shorts are above NY Midnight Opening Price.
3a. The best longs are below NY Midnight Opening Price.
- The best shorts are above NY Midnight Opening Price.
- We don’t think that the previous days high, nor the 50% of that will be taken out.
When does the PM Silver Bullet form?
- 02:00 - 03:00 pm.
Same rules as AM Silver Bullet.
What kind of trades are the Silver Bullets?
- Silver bullet are always continuation trades of the current flow.
- Reversal trade if DOL.
What are NEW YORK Session characteristics?
- New York is a continuation of whatever London did.
- When does that not happen? If the range expansion from London reaches the HTF target (W-D) in the New York session.
2.1Now you apply a market reversal profile. It has to be clear.
What are NY Lunch (Run On Stops) characteristics?
- It takes experience.
- 11:00am - 01:00 pm
- Reversing back to where the morning session stopped.
- The algo is going to go for relatively equal lows or 15m-5m low if bullish.
- High probability: if there is a FVG, BPR, VI just beneath that low. That’s a unicorn.
- If London and New York went up, you can short NY Lunch with a 1m shift.
What are the Final Hour Macro (03:00-04:00 pm) charcteristics?
- High or low of the day in index futures.
- Unless it reaches the weekly-daily objective intraday. Then we have to trade with a scalpers mindset. Looking for a 15m high-low or FVG above-below the market place.
- Aim for max 5 handles.
What are Trending Signatures with NWOG?
- Whenever there is a sudden move away from the NWOG, that indicates we are entering a trending market.
- If we are bearish, price will do a false run above NWOG and then continue the trend.
- If we are bullish, price will do a false run below NWOG and then continue the trend.
What are Consolidation Signatures With NWOG?
- If price has an unwillingness to move away from the current NWOG and keeps coming right back to the current NWOG, then we are going to be rangebound.
- We are in a scalpers market. Max 5 handles TP.
- When there is a multitude, cluster of NWOGs converging within that range.
What are some NWOG uses?
- You can use NWOGs as a target or
- as a mile marker.
- You can scalp from high to low.
What is the fall seasonal tendency?
Fall seasonal tendency is bullish going into the end of the year up to the first week of February.
How do we know that it will be a consolidation Market?
- Old NWOG in near proximity, overlapping with the current NWOG.
- And there aren’t any HI News on that day but during the week.
How do you trade the Sick Sister in a Consolidating Market?
- SMT: We are looking for the one that failed to make a higher high or lower low.
- Sick Sister: The weakest Indices is going to try it later on, once it drops into a P-D-Array.
- “First one now shall later be last.”
What is the CPI Week Protocol?
- Markets will be ranging days before CPI release.
- Monday, Tuesday are low probability. Seek & Destroy Profile.
- Do not trade on those days. Wait for the CPI release.
- Engagement 15-30m after news release.
What profile can you expect if price did a large range and hit a HTF array in London?
- London Swing to Seek & Destroy.
- I have to expect a low probability AM session.
What are the ICT Daily Templates?
- Classic Buy/Sell Day
- London Swing to Z-Day
- London Swing to NY Open- London Close Reversal
- Range to NY Open - London Close Rally
- Consolidation Raid on News Release
- London Swing to Seek & Destroy
What do you expect on a beginning of each week?
- A fake move into Premium or Discount.
- A Fake move taking out a HTF liquidity pool.
- Fake move will be printed Tuesday-Wednesday.
- Think MMXM but spread out through the week.
When do we skip a NWOG?
When it’s less then 4 ticks, use previous week NWOG.
There are 2 types of delivery, what are they?
- FVG for a later Draw.
- Immidiate Rebalance. (Draw is next Liquidity Pool/FVG…)
What is the NWOG in the context of the Weekly Candel?
NWOG is Weekly Candle’s FVG.
What is relative strenght?
Relative Strength Analysis
- Which one is printing new highs or lows?
- Which one is ranging?
- Which one is filling FVG’s?
- Which one is not even coming back to FVG?
When are the Silver Bullet Time-Windows?
- London Session: 3:00-4:00 AM.
- NY AM Session: 10:00 - 11:00 AM.
- NY PM Session: 2:00 - 3:00 PM.
Immediate Rebalance vs FVG?
- FVG is a price point for a later draw.
- Immediate Rebalance has no FVG, it’s draw
is the Liquidity Pool. - You don’t take partials on a Immediate Rebalance
Which futures contract do you have to use for your analysis?
The quarterly contract as it shows Imbalances, GAPS… in price.
Is the Immediate Rebalance Strong or Weak?
- If we are bullish and see an Immediate Rebalance, it’s the most powerful for a immediate dynamic price delivery.
- Strongest algorithmically price delivery you can see.
What are the Opening Range GAP (RTH GAP) rules?
- 3 day rule, keep them on your charts for 3 days.
- Leave the unfilled OG on your chart for future reference and targets.
- Split the OG’s into CE.
- You can use the OG as projected SD’s as a Target.
What is a Save Haven asset?
A safe haven asset is one which is expected to maintain or increase in value during periods of economic uncertainty and market turbulence. They are uncorrelated or negatively correlated with the economy as a whole, which means that they could appreciate in the event of a market crash.
- DXY
- Gold
- Bonds
What do you have to respect if on a HTF there is a FVG but on the LTF there isn’t?
- It’s still inefficient on the HTF chart, it’s parent to the lower time frames (subordinate).
- On the LTF we are seeing the formation of the weekly FVG.
When do you discard a FVG?
If a market closes above a bearish FVG that you think should be bearish, that’s not a good shorting opportunity. Many times it’s telling you that it will become an inversion FVG.
What is the Bond (ZB-CBOT) - DXY Correlation?
Inverse Correlation.
What asset class drives all markets?
Bonds (Interest Rates)
What if Bonds are ranging?
If your market is ranging and DXY too, then you are in a scalpers market. Focus on Bread & Butter setups!
How do you Grade a Price Swing (Implied Range)?
- You have to know where the draw on liquidity is. Where is the terminus? It doesn’t mean that it will ultimately stop there and reverse. Where do you see your setup form? Where’s the framework?
- Where is the dealing range (past-left side of chart) that you are going to work within?
- Implied Dealing Range: Projected a range into the future, projecting to the DOL as your target. It’s on the right side of the chart not printed yet.
How do you anticipate where the next setups are forming before they ever come into the chart?
- Quarters of the Implied Dealing Range will present trading opportunities:
- 75%
- 50%
- 25%
What if Bonds are in a Trending Profile?
Once we are in a trending environment not consolidation, that means that price swings can now evolve and allow daily charts to start booking sustained runs. Not just intraday volatility.
(When the bond market is consolidating, that is a true testimony to anticipate consolidation in your specific market… whatever that market is. )
Inversion FVG, what do they do?
- If you ever have an IFVG, and you have a FVG that is just below that level, inside of your dealing range, we expect the IFVG to hold as support-resistance and the FVG below - above to stay open.
- As soon as the body closes at the high or CE of the IFVG, we can trust that the FVG below should not be traded to.
What happens if price reached the HTF Objective?
Our BIAS changes to Neutral.
LTF will move into a consolidation profile after hitting HTF target in multiple markets.
What are the characteristics of a BPR?
- SIBI is inefficient in buy orders, once buying takes place within the SIBI and leaves, we have a BPR.
- BPR’s tend to either stop price at their high/low or CE.
- It’s highly unlikely that price will trade to the low of this BPR again and through it.
What is “protected” vs an “unprotected” High/Low?
- Protected: A High/Low that resembles a range (lots of candles).
- Unprotected: A High/Low that is like a V-Bottom.
Breakaway GAP
- It must have some context for why price should be bearish/bullish.
- They tend to leave a portion of the GAP unfilled.
- Once price does a new high/low, we can be confident that price won’t revisit it. Adjust your SL to the Breakaway GAP and let it run.
Common FVG
- Can be traded to multiple times to.
- They are reclaimed as support/resistance.
Measuring GAP
- Locates at the 50% of a Dealing and Implied Dealing Range.
- Measuring GAP tend to leave a portion open, just as a breakaway gap.
- It’s a measuring GAP because you can measure and project the swing projection, target (Implied Range).
3.1. You ancker the fib from the high to the Measuring GAP and project the target.
3.2 The -1SD has to be in agreement with moving below/above an old area of liquidity.
During a News event, Session Opening… How can you deduce the BIAS based on liquidity?
- Wait for a pool of liquidity to be run. If BSL has been run first then you can expect short selling from Smart Money. If SSL has been run first then you can expect buying from Smart Money.
- Smart Money waits for that signature, that tells me the direction.
What are OB uses?
- They are a change in the state of delivery.
- Frame of reference where price will be drawn to or from.
- High Probability: OB and FVG.
What is the “3 Indian Pattern” in terms of liquidity?
- Three Indian Patter -
- When you are long and you see it starts creating these short term highs, every time it runs above that and you are long, high frequency trading algorithms are dumping portions of their positions above it.
- They offset their orders to willing buyers above the Short Term highs.
What is the Lunch Macro (12-1:00)?
Lunch Macro:
- Runs liquidity, the stops that would favour the folks that would have been profitable all morning long going into NY Lunch.
- They have trailed their stop loss because they don’t wanna loose open profit when really they’re guaranteeing no potential further open profit because the market will in fact many times go down and take out the LOD (bullish)- HOD (bearish) that was formed prior to 11 am or noon. They will take those stops.
- At what time? 12:00-01:30 NY Local time.
When is the best time to enter the market?
- The best time to be long is when SSL has been taken.
1a. The best longs are below NY Midnight Opening Price. - The best time to be short is when BSL has been taken.
2a. The best shorts are above NY Midnight Opening Price.
What is a top down analysis?
We spent the most time on the weekly chart. Why is that?
- Friday Close - Sunday Open, you have to do your weekly outlook when the market is closed between: Friday Close - Sunday Open.
- You look at a 1 year, 3 Month, 1 Month, Weekly and Daily chart and do a top down analysis. You may see PD Arrays on HTF’s that you didn’t notice before.
- Where is the present weekly candle reaching for? Higher or lower prices?
- Into an FVG (if there is no FVG then it runs for Liquidity Pool),
- Liquidity Pool,
- Wick CE.
- 4h,1h: Does the trend line up with the BIAS or is retracing?
- Price Delivery Continuum is the movement from where price is right now, to future delivery. Where are the stops, Gaps? It’s only going to do two things:
- To seek liquidity (Up to take BSL or down to take SSL).
- Fill an VI, GAP, FVG…
How many trading days do you look back to validate PD Arrays?
60 Day Look-back
Look for:
- The highest high and lowest low in the past 60 days.
- Inefficiencies in the past 60 days. They will act as Support or Resistance. Leave them on your chart.
At what time is the e?
Forex Silver Bullet:
London: 3 - 5 am (09:00 - 11:00)
New York: 7-9 am (13:00 - 15:00)
New York: 10-11 am (16:00 - 17:00)
Order Blocks
Why do we use sometimes the consecutive candles as an OB and other times not?
- When all these consecutive candles are within a FVG.
- We allow price to trade to and through but not closing above/below the MT of the OB.
- When price closes below/above the MT, this indicates that price is going to continue into the given direction.
IFVG, FVGs, how do they contribute to a High Probability Setup?
In bearish markets, we don’t want to see the high in a IFVG traded to.
- You have to treat it like a Breakaway FVG.
- If it leaves the upper quarter open, this is a high probability scenario.
DXY and Forex relation.
- DXY is highly sensitive to the FOREX Market.
- Index futures can flex sometimes against the Dollar. This won’t happen in the FOREX market.
How can we use the Economic Calendar for your weekly planing?
We can anticipate when the inception of the majority of the manipulation is going to begin.
- We use MEDIUM & HIGH IMPACT NEWS DRIVERS. Use them to time price delivery at these events. They are used as a smokescreens.
- Blend in the key times, Kill zones.
When are the Forex KillZones and their characteristics?
FOREX KillZones
- London Session KillZone (1:00) 2:00 - 5:00 am will most of the time print the high - low of the day. Classic Signature of London is a Stop Run. It seeks BSL or SSL. You must know where the weekly candle is drawing to next.
- NY Session KillZone 7:00 - 9:00 am.
- London Close KillZone 10-12 am, prints generally the opposite range of the day.
When do you have to take partials?
- London Close (Forex), Lunch Time (Index Futures) We trade into targets until we get into a specific time of day.
- If price trades into Wick CE, you must take partials right above it.
- At Liquidity Pool.
What signature do you want to see if a bullish OB MT is broken and we have an SIBI above it?
We want to see the SIBI stay open and become a Breakaway GAP.
Which PD Array has precedence? OB or FVG?
The inefficiency has precedence above the OB.
When can you trust that the London High or Low won’t be taken out? When can you trust the NY continuation?
- They will run the London High or Low on the heels of a HI News Driver.
- After they have run the London High or Low price will reverse into the direction of the trend.
What is Terminus?
Terminus is where you define your “low hanging fruit”. It doesn’t has to stop and reverse form here, price can run past my terminus.
What is a Seasonal Tendency doesn’t plays out?
If a seasonal tendency does not form or continue like it did in the past, the fact that it’s not there, many times it’s a very strong indication it will go the opposite.
How do you trade FOMC, NFP…?
CPI: is the same macro but on steroids.
2 Stage Delivery (FOMC 2:30pm Macro)
- 2:00 pm: First Run, at 2 pm price runs lower and then rips higher.
- 2:30 pm: Reversal.
- Usually it does a one-directional judas swing and then reverses and runs to the other side and makes a lower low on the day.
- Wait 30m and look which liquidity still resides in the market to target.
- You need a min. range of 10 handles.
- Which Index future is the strongest if we want to buy, NQ or ES? Which Index future is the strongest if we want to sell, NQ or ES?
- It can run do something like printing a FVG at P or D and then sells off from that FVG.
Target: Initial move of the Judas Swing.
What is the TGIF (THANKS GOD ITS FRIDAY) Setup?
- It’s day specific: Friday
- It’s a 20%-30% retracement into current weekly range.
- Weekly Power Of 3 Distribution.
- TGIF is extremely precise if you anker it to a HTF PF Array.
(You can do the same with the daily range.) - The setup ends at 4pm.
TGIF
In the last portion of Friday’s trading, you can if it hasn’t occurred yet, you can anticipate some measure of retracement into the weekly range.
What are the specifics?
- We can assume that the high-low of the week will be printed around 1:30pm Friday.
- We can anticipate some measure of retracement ONLY IF WE HAVE TRADED INTO A HTF (Monthly/Weekly) PD ARRAY.
- If price didn’t trade into a HTF PD Array, it’s going to continue higher or lower and close at the extreme.
TGIF
When does the Judas Swing usually form?
- Judas Swing at the Friday NY Open.
- Or the Judas Swing prints at 1:30-2 pm.
TGIF
How do you measure the weekly range?
- Measure the whole weekly candle with a fib.
- DOL Sweet Spot: 20%-30% of the range. Price will likely draw into these levels.
2a. There are times when price will draw into 40% or more.
One Trading Setup For Life
What does One Trading Setup For Life entail?
- Something that would repeat over and over again.
- It’s very specific.
One Trading Setup For Life
Which Liquidity Pools do we use?
- PM SESSION RANGES (PREVIOUS DAY) - 1:30 PM - 4:00 PM (NY LOCAL TIME)
- LONDON SESSION - 2:00 AM - 5:00 AM (NY Time)
- Opening Range GAP (RTH) (Close - NY Open)
- NEW YORK LUNCH RAID - NOON - 1:30 PM (NYT)
- AM SESSION RANGES - 9:30 AM - NOON (NYT)
One Trading Setup For Life
What are the specifics for the PM SESSION RANGES (PREVIOUS DAY)?
- 1:30 PM - 4:00 PM (NY LOCAL TIME)
- You are going to look for the highest high and the lowest low between 1:30 PM - 4:00 PM.
- PM Session Ranges (Previous Day) is always referred to as RTH.
- It cuts out all the overnight trading.
One Trading Setup For Life
What is ICT’s 24h routine?
- Look at PM Session Range. (RTH)
- If it’s not a factor or it’s not to be considered because we’re not in close proximity that that range because we could be much higher or lower. What then? - London Session Raid. You have to toggle to ETH.
2a. That means you have to look at the range between 2:00am - 5:00 am (NYT) - . Once a liquidity pool has been raided at the NY Open, we anticipate that as a Judas Swing.
If you don’t have a clear depiction of where price will draw to next, then stay out of the market and Tape Read.
One Trading Setup For Life
Opening Range GAP (RTH) REGULAR TRADING HOURS.
What are the specifics?
- It will remove all the overnight trading, London.
- It shows where RTH stopped and RTH started at 9:30.
- The ALGO, when RTH starts the next day, it’s gonna refer back to these specific RTH times and what liquidity is above and below it.
- We want to filter out all the Overnight trading, even if it did a lower low during the ETH hours. We don’t care. You want to filter overnight trading out.
One Trading Setup For Life
NEW YORK LUNCH RAID - NOON - 1:30 PM (NYT)
What are the specifics?
- The ALGO imitates the historic lunch hour. It’s much more efficient.
- You have to define the range between NOON - 1:30 PM (NYT). Highest high - lowest low.
- If we expect price to be bullish and it has not done anything in the morning, we expect the Lunch Low to be taken out and run into the Opening Range GAP.
- If you are bearish, you can wait for a run up into the Opening Range GAP, take out a BSL Pool and then watch and see how it trades back below the NY Lunch high. Is there a displacement? Breaker, Mitigation Block? FVG? See example below.
- Aim for the NY Lunch Low.
- You can even trade the run on the lows with a shift on 1m or 15 seconds.
- This sets the tone for the 2-3pm Silver Bullet.
One Trading Setup For Life
AM SESSION RANGES - 9:30 AM - NOON (NYT)
What are the specifics?
- We are considering this in the afternoon, so we can always refer to it in the same trading day. That way we could be anticipating a market reversal profile if we have an elongated market where for example the NY AM Session of the current trading day is consolidating and then we have a directional lunch hour or during the lunch hour it’s consolidating as well, we can refer to and if we are bearish, we look at the previous sessions trading.
- If you look at the previous session you’re using Electronic Trading (ETH), what specific low am I looking for?
- 9:30 AM - NOON (NYT)
- If I am not going to look at the PM session range because we have already traded below at the NY Open.
- In that case we use the NY AM Session SSL Pool of the Previous Day.
- On RTH we would get that same low. That’s very important.
- If we are bearish we want to trade below the Previous Day’s PM Session and-or NY AM Session. (RTH) Algo will refer back to them.
- If bullish then everything would be the opposite.
One Trading Setup For Life
What if during the ETH Session a Lower Low or Higher High was printed?
If during the ETH a lower low, lower than the Previous Day’s NY AM Session SSL Pool was printed, we would still be aiming for the Previous Day’s NY AM (or PM Session Session) SSL Pool and ignore the low printed during ETH.
When does the Judas Swing form during New York AM?
At 9:30 am - 10 am. That is your opening range. So we’re expecting this rally higher (if bearish) to be opposed to the direction we’re expecting.
Confluence: NY Midnight Opening Price.
How do you define the Opening Range GAP (Monday) and what uses does it have?
- Friday Close - Monday NY Open
- Whenever we are opening on Monday lower than the Fridays close, then we are opening with a discount opening range GAP.
2a. Whenever we are opening with a GAP that’s above Friday’s close, then we are opening in with an Opening Range Gap premium.
Advanced Breaker Theory
What is a Breaker Block?
- Reversal or Continuation Pattern.
- It’s one of the strongest Arrays.
- Best Breaker: 2 Levels of Liquidity Pools engaged. (HTF and LTF)
Advanced Breaker Theory
How can you trade a Breaker?
- You can enter into the leg that is going to create the breaker. Do progressive Scale Ins.
- Focus on the A-B leg: Apply the FIB and target the -1SD. That’s the easiest bread and butter approach.
- Discard the leg that runs the Liquidity = Time Distortion.
- Super Charge It: If you are in sync with the HTF BIAS, you can use A-B SD’s and see if they are align with a larger DOL as your ultimate BIAS. (See Example Below)
- When SD’s agree with a level of liquidity, you can be sure price will get there.
When do Breakers do not provide a clear entry?
- NFP
- CPI
- FOMC
Macros
What do you have to know?
- You have to know the narrative.
- Where is price going to next?
HI NEWS, when does the Judas Swing happen?
For where price goes first when the news hits, usually that will be the false run.
How does NFP usually deliver?
- 1st Rally,
- 2nd Move lower take out the stops.
- ## Resume going higher.
- Drop down, take out sell side then
- run higher take out the buy side and
- ## then drop down.Or just be a choppy mess.
and Vice-Versa.
What is and does a Macro?
- A time window to anticipate the market to start reaching, start doing some thing, showing animation.
- We have to anticipate a specific phenomenon in price where it will start behaving like we would expect it to. It will start running for liquidity, it will start running for inefficiency.
- If the Macros do not provide that timing aspect and the market just simply doesn’t budge, that is many times a beautiful illustration for you to stop looking and close your charts.
- Trade the next session.
- It’s the beginning of a spooling event, spooling is where price starts to reach for.
- You have to know where the next DOL is.
- You have to include a HTF analysis and BIAS.
- The Markets are not moving randomly.
OB’s and FVG’s on Different TF’s
Use unusual time frames to find OB’s, like 2h, 6h, 8h, 12h…
How does a Opening Range GAP (RTH) act and perform?
- Opening Range GAP acts and performs in the same manner as we would expect a weekly volume imbalance.
- Split it in quadrants.
- Study the RTH’s how they were delivered in ETH.
- Breaker will many times prevent the RTH GAP from closing completely.
How do old liquidity pools act?
Every Old Liquidity Pool acts like an inefficiency, it’ll many times be revisited and act like the opposite.
3 Drives Pattern & Breaker
If you see a level or a directional fail after three attempts and if you see a breaker or a model 2022 inside of that: Amazing Model!
What happens if we have two FVG in near proximity?
We have two gaps in near proximity, on the second FVG we can expect a IOFED.
What is a Propulsion Block?
- You have one OB with another one that digs into it.
- You never want to see the MT of the PB been violated, meaning a close below it.
- Wicks are ok.
- The MT of the PB Wick can be traded to and respected.
Premium - Discount: When do we have to do our buying, selling?
- Shorts: Above 50% Equilibrium, it’s less probability. Because we are in a premium.
- We have to do all our buying below 50% or less. That’s High Probability.
and Vice Versa.
Premium - Discount: Where do we expect a STOP Hunt?
- At Equilibrium we predict a STOP HUNT.
How do you trade IFVG?
- Once we have a change in the state of delivery and price closes the FVG, we treat them as IFVG.
- 50% and 25% of the IFVG should be respected.
- They are like mountain climbers, price finds grip within IFVG to climb higher.
Price Projection: Gradients Future Range.
What happens at each gradient?
- Lower 25% SL hunt
- 50% Consolidation and SL hunt
- Upper 25% run to DOL
What does the Macro: 2:50-3:10 do?
Runs untapped pool of liquidity.
What are Breakaway GAPs?
Are gaps when you want to see an energetic price run away from an area you anticipated prior to it running away. If you are expecting it to move lower, great, when it finally does and it creates a Breakaway gap, your first thought should be that this is a BGAP. Especially if price has been ranging.
What is Time Distortion?
A matter of time between segments of time of the day where markets will start spooling.
What is a Measuring GAP?
Stays open and happens at the 50% of the price leg.
What is a ICT REAPER IFVG - PD ARRAY
Bullish Reaper
1. Price leaves a FVG.
2. FVG must be in a Discount.
3. Price runs the stops, SSL.
4. Rallies and takes out the high.
5. Price returns into the Reaper IFVG.
ICT REAPER
> Bullish: Reaper is a IFVG in a discount of the impulsive price leg of a bullish breaker.
> Bearish: Reaper is a IFVG in a premium of the impulse price leg of a bearish breaker.
> You have to have a Bias and some sort of Retail Idea to run against.
What are Taboo Trading Days?
- NFP,
- FOMC &
- CPI,
- Mondays if there is no NFP, FOMC, CPI .
How do you Approach Taboo Days?
- Don’t trade ahead of the HI News drivers, wait till the release and then an additional 30 minutes.
- Wait for the initial run, when the data is released and sit through the first 30 minutes. After 30 minutes you can trade the rest of the session.
- After the initial surge of the News Release, you will see what inefficiencies and what liquidity is left over. You can trade that.
- If it’s not clear, then stay away. Tape Read. Study.
- If you get a loss: Stop.
- If you get a win: Stop.
Miscellaneous, only read!
> Just doing something because doing something feels productive and backtesting and study doesn’t feel productive. For a long time you will feel that way until you get to that point where you know what you’re looking for.
Learn to walk before to run.
Don’t listen to outside interference.
Time is the educator.
In the beginning you need a lot of rules. Later when you are more experienced, you may have less rules.
Steady pace, no speeding!!
Breathing like within a meditative state is essential to your trading.
When you take a loss and aren’t certain about your analysis. Leave your office for 15m. Then come back or close your charts.
Keep your trading stats (KPI) private to boost maturity and excellence as a trader. Focus on your model.
The Secret to Trading Success: 1. Keep your progress private! 2. Make your trading boring.
How do you plan FOMC Days?
- Avoid trading the morning session. It tends to be quite or lacklustre. Sometimes it will move and that’s the times when hindsight Harry comes bragging.
1. Wait for the 2pm News Release: At 2pm we wait for the initial run. We don’t care where it goes. This is generally the Fake Move.
2. Wait 30 minutes and then engage the opposing side Liquidity Pool: 2:30 pm they will reverse price into the opposing direction, especially if the first run, the fake run, stopped moving further.
When Should You Trade Mondays?
- When you have a NFP News Driver on Friday and we don’t have a holiday between Monday-Wednesday, then trade Monday-Wednesday AM Session (included) and be done. Then Friday after NFP release. (Trade the Silver Bullet on Fridays NFP.)
- FOMC; you want to trade Mondays if there is no Holiday leading up to FOMC event.
When do you avoid trading Mondays?
- When you have a NFP News Driver on Friday and we have a holiday between Monday-Wednesday, then trade Thursday - Friday (after NFP release). The big moves, bonkers will happen in the later part of the week. (Trade the Silver Bullet on Fridays NFP.)
- FOMC; you don’t want to trade Mondays if there is a Holiday leading up to FOMC event.
How do you treat Mondays without a NFP, FOMC, CPI?
- If there is no NFP, FOMC during the week, look at every Monday as a consolidation day that sets up the weekly scenario for the weekly range.
- You treat it like a Asian range. It creates sentiment.
- If Mondays get animated, you can trade 10 am Silver Bullet and if it leaves Liquidity Pools you can trade Silver Bullet PM Session.
What are the BPR Rules?
- Breakers prevent repricing to BPR’s.
- HTF BPR’s are solid.
- 1 minute BPR’s won’t be respected many times.
- If BPR gets traded through, wait for further confirmation. Does drop back below with displacement and FVG or does it break to the upside?
