2023 Mentorship Flashcards
How do you project targets?
- In Standard Deviations (FIB)
- You look for a confluence of standard deviations at key market reversal points.
- First target above/below a liquidity pool.
- Second target beyond the liquidity pool.
- Aiming at the standard deviation level beyond equal highs/lows.
What is a Opening Gap (RTH GAP)?
- Yesterdays Close to Equity Open are the boundaries.
- This range is most likely being traded into.
- Look for PD Arrays within the RTH GAP in ETH.
What is a PD Array?
- Volume Imbalance
- Order Block
- FVG/BPR
- Rejection Block
- NWOG
- NDOG
- Implied FVG
What defines a High Probability Setup?
CLEAR DIRECTION: DRAW ON LIQUIDITY
1. Liquidity Taken
2. Displacement
3. Structure Shift
4. Premium-Discount PD Array
5. Entries within Premium and 50% of Discount.
6. SMT
7. Market Symmetry
8. Time of Day
What is a High Resistance Liquidity Run?
- Short-term stops will be raided more likely.
- Dollar and Index Futures move into the same direction.
- Index Futures are dislodged.
How do you trade High Resistance Liquidity Runs?
- You wait for a short-term swing to be taken out.
- Wait for a Breaker or MB.
- Entry: PD Array
What defines a NDOG (New Day Opening Gap)?
How many NDOGs do we Look-Back?
- Time: 04:59pm NY time - 06:00pm NY Time (16:59 - 18:00)
- Look-Back: 2 weeks, as much as 10 NDOGS
- Real Dynamic Support and Resistance.
- Price has to offer sell-side and buy-side within that GAP.
- We want to see a significant separation - GAP - not like 1-3 ticks.
- At each new trading week, discard the previous weeks NDOG and begin with this weeks first NDOG, extend it out.
What are Bullish & Bearish Breakers ?
Price has to take Liquidity on Both sides (like CHoCH)*
1. They define a structure shift.
2. Bullish Breaker: Highest Up-closed candle before the drop down, taking out SSL.
3. Bearish Breaker: Lowest Down-Closed candle before the rally up, taking out BSL.
What defines a NWOG GAP?
Friday’s Close - Monday NY AM Open.
What defines a NWOG (New Week Opening Gap)?
- Time: Fridays Closing Price 04:59 pm - Sunday’s Opening Price 06:00 pm.
- NWOG is a real GAP. When the market moves away from that GAP, it refers back to that in the future.
How does price behave around a NWOG Actual?
- Extend the NWOG and CE through the entirety of the week.
- It acts like real support-resistance.
- This gap will act like a magnet and Price has to offer buy-side and sell side within that NWOG.
- Smart Money refers to NWOG’s for buying and selling.
NWOG: Which levels are sensitive?
- The midpoint level is highly sensitive.
- and Quarters.
NWOG: How many weeks do we look back?
- Use that same opening range for every week within the same month. The algo will refer back to it.
- Look-back: we go back as much as 5 weeks or 60 days.
How do you define a FVG?
It’s the empty space between 3 candles.
What are the most important price levels in a bullish FVG?
- High,
- Upper Quarter (25),
- Midpoint (CE).
What are the most important price levels in a bearish FVG?
- Low
- Midpoint (CE)
- Quarter
How do you define an Implied FVG?
- A Displacement Candle that is…
- Overlapped by overlapping wicks.
- CE of either wicks reveal the implied FVG.
How many PD Arrays need to fail to classify as a failure and possible reversal?
3 PD Arrays need to fail.
What are 5 handles in SP500?
5 handles means a change of 5 points in the price quote. For example, if SP500 goes from 4000.42 to 4005.42, then it has moved up by 5 handles.
What happens if a bullish PD Array breaks?
- When a bullish PD Array breaks, it becomes an inversion PD Array. Think like support becomes resistance.
- Think like support becomes resistance. It’s a change in the state of delivery.
How does the Algorithm interpret Wicks?
- Wicks are viewed by the algorithm as a gap. That’s why it’s going to reprice back to it.
What is likely to happen when price runs a liquidity pool, fill a FVG and does a Breaker?
- Price will test the breaker and continue the move higher/lower.
- Price won’t return to fill a FVG.
When can you use the IOFED entry?
- Anytime to make sure to be in the trade.
- To pyramid.
There are only 2 reasons why price moves up or down. What are they?
- To run liquidity. (Short - Term Swings).
- To fill a PD Array, reprice into it and balances the FVG.
- Time Delivery: It’s TIME Bases, MACROS
What is the anatomy of a FVG?
- Low,
- High,
- Midpoint,
- Quarters.
Which FVG quadrant is used by high frequency algorithms?
- When Bullish, the upper quadrant.
- When Bearish, the lower quadrant.
What is an event horizon PD Array?
Halfway between a NWOG and the closest NWOG is the Event Horizon. It will not allow price to escape the draw to the NWOG & it will create a surge towards the NWOG it got too “close” to but yet to reached.
What sets a Large Range day into a higher time frame target up?
A cautious New York AM session.
What is a Mitigation Block?
- Swing Failure,
- It’s a shift in structure.
What are the only 2 reasons why price moves up or down.
- To run liquidity. (Short - Term Swings)
- To fill a FVG.
How do you qualify and disqualify a potential PD Array, Entry?
You have to confirm the PD with DXY.
What is institutional order flow (IOF)?
If we are bullish then we want to see down closed candles to hold price up and vice versa.
What does the macro: 09:50 - 10:10 - do?
- Price will run for Liquidity or
- fill a FVG. (Judas Swing)
- If it hasn’t done anything during that macro, it will tell us what it will most likely do during the lunch hour from 11:00 am: Lunch Macro: 10:50-11:10 am.
How do you confirm a new high/low or a liquidity run?
- You have to confirm if DXY did the opposite to validate the new high or low.
- If DXY didn’t confirm the move, then it was a run on liquidity.
What do you do when a weekly objective has been hit?
Once a weekly objective is reached we stop!
What is the NFP protocol?
During that trading week we only trade till Wednesday NY AM session.
Thursday and Friday = Low probability and low precision setups.
You can trade Friday, 30m after the news release.
How far can price go after a liquidity run?
TO THE NEXT
- NWOG,
- NDOG.
Lunch Macro: What is unfinished business?
- Sell - Side Liquidity Run
- Buy - Side Liquidity Run
- RTH GAP fill
What are FVGs?
- Entry Point
- Target
- Sentiment Shift from buy to sell or sell to buy program.
What if we had a previous wide range day?
The NY AM session will be problematic.
What if during the London Session we had a huge move? What are your first thoughts?
- STOP! SLOW DOWN. FOCUS ON THE PM SESSION.
- AM SESSION WILL BE CHOPPY - SEEK AND DESTROY.
- Retail is going to chase the move. Look for their Stops.
What does the influence of mixed stock index averages create? How do you trade that day?
- Fickle, rangebound conditions.
- Reduce your risk. Take the day off.
What is your Trading Routine?
Macro
1. Seasonal Tendency
2. DXY, 10 year T-Note, 10 Year YIELDS
Pre-Market
1. Are there any HI News? When?
2. What are the HTF Arrays? Where is the Liquidity?
3. Mark the London Session Up. What happened?
4. Where is price in relation to NY Midnight Open?
5. Mark the NDOG up.
6. Are we above or below Current/Previous NWOG?
7. What does DXY do? Are the Index futures aligned?
8. High or Low resistance conditions?
9. Narrative and Plan for the day.
Equity Open
10. Mark up the RTH GAP.
11. Where is the Measuring GAP?
12. Wait for the Opening Range to unfold.
13. Look for the Silver Bullet.
Why do you have to wait for the opening range to unfold?
- Fake Move happens here.
- Do not rush into a trade. You have the whole day.
How behaves price to a FOMC release?
- FOMC is typically a 2 stage delivery.
- At 2:00 pm ET, there is an initial price run, that many times gets reversed harder than the initial price run.
- Trade the 2:30 - 4:00 pm session during FOMC.
- Ignore the AM session.
The day after FOMC, on what session do we focus?
New York PM session.
- FOMC is a large range previous day.
- AM is Choppy, HRLR and Seek & Destroy.
What’s important to know when studying ICT concepts?
- Not all ICT tools are useful for you. Choose the ones that resonate with you.
- Give it time, commit to it or fail!
How can I use the Opening GAP (RTH GAP) to formulate a BIAS for the session?
- Sets the tone how we can trade intraday.
- Are we opening above? Then we are in a premium in relation to the Opening GAP.
- Are we opening below? Then we are in a discount in relation to the Opening GAP.
- Is there a Liquidity Pool nearby?
What happens if we don’t fill the RTH GAP during the AM Session?
- We’re going to expand until we get into a HTF PD Array. Once we hit that, typically during lunch hour,
- then during Lunch we have some measure of retracement to morning session stops.
- It can be exaggerated beyond that if we don’t have filled the RTH GAP.
What happens if we fill the RTH GAP in the AM Session?
If price fills the Opening GAP and then runs higher to fill a PD Array, then retraces during lunch time, our expectation for the PM session would be a continuation.
When you back-test, what questions do you need to keep in mind?
- Who is winning right now?
- Who got hurt?
- Who is being targeted?
What are LR conditions?
- Market Symmetry: Dollar Bullish, Index Futures Bearish and Vice Versa.
What is the pitfall of a LRLR Conditions?
“I want to repeat it right now.” That’s the mental trap. Wrap up and go home!
What are the signs of a manipulated market?
- Dollar is ranging.
- Index Futures and FX pairs are rallying.
The real move happens after Index Futures & FX does a higher high or lower low. (HRLR Conditions)
Generally, What are the characteristics of Thursdays in a weekly profile?
- Tends to create the opposite end of the weekly range.
- We can anticipate the market to top out and always look for a reason the to trade back into the weekly range.
What does a Macro do?
- It rolls against whoever is profitable right now.
- Or it completes a HTF PD Array.
What is the CONTEXT of a BIAS?
- Quarterly Shift Seasonal Tendency.
- Weekly Range Expansion in the direction of that seasonal tendency.
- Highest Risk with Quarterly Tendency or Pyramiding In.
What are your trades for?
Your trades are there to make money, not to make you feel better or pass time gambling.
What time is the Pre-Market Window?
07:00 - 08:30 NY Time
When can you trade during the Pre-Market Window?
- Before a High Impact News Release at 08:30.
- After a US Holiday.
What are the characteristic of a High Resistance Liquidity Run?
- DXY is ranging.
- Short-term stops being raided often before continuing.
- Markets are not aligned.
- Previous Large Range Day. (AM Session HRLR)
- London Large Range and Target Hit.
- Price traded into a Daily Target, PD Array, before Equity Open.
What are the characteristics of an Opening Range?
- We observe price for the first 30 minutes to unfold.
- Once that first 30 minutes is transpired, you want to identify your 15m, 5m and 1m, buy-side and sell-side liquidity pools and where all the inefficiencies are.
- Opening GAP (RTH) Did we fill it? Where is price in relation to it?
- You work with this markup from 10:00 - 12:00.
- Repricing Macro Initiates: 09:50 - 10:10.
- Wait for the AM Silver Bullet
What do you need to respect during the AM Session after a US Holiday?
- US Holiday interrupted the normal flow of price, sentiment, trading, speculation, order entry. A lot of folks sit on their hands the AM Session after the US holiday.
- On the heels of any holiday that impacts trading normal hours, anytime that occurs, the very next trading session, the morning is very, very low probability. Meaning it could be choppy initially or the entire morning session could be awash. But it’s beneficial to observe it.
- If the morning session offers nothing that brings your attention to a specific setup, a draw on liquidity, then come back for the afternoon session.
- If you expect the morning session to be problematic, look for an opportunity during the Pre-Market 07:00-08:30 time window.
- It can create Seek and Destroy profile.
What are the pitfalls trading US Holidays?
- US Holidays, are abbreviated trading days.
- They are low probability.
What happens if price did a
1. run on liquidity
2. Reached P-D Array
- during London or Premarket - before 09:30 Equity Open?
- Expect a choppy session.
- Focus on the Lunch Macro at 10:50 - 11:10.
- Focus on the PM session.
When can we adopt the 07:00 - 08:30 time window?
- If we suspect that the market will be very hard to read due to news drivers within the upcoming session or day.
- If there is a High Impact news release at 08:30.
What time is the Repricing Macro?
- It happens from 09:50 - 10:10.
What are the characteristics of the NY Lunch Macro?
- It happens from 10:50 - 11:10.
- On Ranging days.
- In trending markets they won’t form.
- The Algo stimulates the volume and sentiment going into Lunchtime.
- It’s likely moving into the direction where liquidity hasn’t been taken yet.
When is the PM Session Open?
13:30 - 16:00 NY time
What are the characteristics of the Final Macro Hour?
- It’s Time Sensitive: 15:15 -15:45.
- It happens on ranging days.
- It won’t happen on trending days.
- Macro will target an untapped point of liquidity.
After 3 pm New York time, a 30-minute interval is considered a macro, and the algorithm will execute a market-on-close run, targeting an untapped point of liquidity.
How behaves price usually to a FOMC release?
- FOMC is typically a 2 stage delivery.
- At 2:00 pm ET, there is an initial price run, that many times gets reversed harder than the initial price run.
- Trade the 2:00 - 4:00 pm session during FOMC.
- Ignore the AM session.
Dollar: What is Risk On?
- Dollar is Bearish
- Foreign Currencies and Indices move bullish.
- If dollar is going lower it’s going to be very easy for other markets to rise and
a. your buy models can be trusted.
b. Your institutional order flow when it’s bullish can be trusted,
c. your discount arrays can be trusted.
Dollar: What is Risk Off?
- Dollar Bullish
- Foreign Currencies and Indices move bearish.
- If dollar is going higher it’s going to be very easy for other markets to drop and
a. your sell models can be trusted.
b. Your institutional order flow when it’s bearish can be trusted,
c. your premium arrays can be trusted.
Dollar: Is in a Consolidation?
- Market is being manipulated if Index Futures Rally.
- That makes it difficult to find a clear direction.
- Markets may create a Seek & Destroy profile.
- Go and enjoy your day!
Intermarket Analysis: What markets do you need to observe?
- Nasdaq, Dow Jones, SP500 and DXY.
- 10 Year T-Note
- 10 year YIELD
What is a symmetrical market (LRLR)?
- When we see a lower low in the NQ, DOW, ES and a higher high in the DXY.
- If at any time we see one of them crack, it’s telling you that there’s a sentiment shift unfolding.
What is a asymmetrical market (HRLR)?
- NQ, DOW, SP500 did a lower low.
- DXY did not.
- This is a SMT divergence.
- A sentiment shift may be unfolding.
What are the characteristics of a Measuring FVGAP and where to locate it?
- It’s the FVG at the 50% of a price run.
- They usually don’t fill.
- If they fill, you treat them the same.
When do my Setups print?
- London Silver Bullet: 3:00 - 4:00 AM.
- Pre-Market: 07:00 - 08:30 On days with HI NEWS DATA release at 08:30.
- Silver Bullet (10am -11am FVG)
- Lunch Macro 10:50 - 11:00. On Ranging Days.
- Run on Stops Macro: 11:50 - 12:10.
- PM Open 01:30: Run on Stops and Continuation.
- Silver Bullet 02:00 - 03:00 PM.
- Final Hour Macro: 03:15 - 03:45 Run into untapped Liquidity.
What are the Silver Bullet Setup Rules?
- It’s a Continuation or Reversal Trade of the HTF IOF.
- It shows up every day.
- The move starts in the 09:50 - 10:10 Macro.
- Wait for 10am.
- Time Specific: The setup forms between 10am - 11am.
- There should be a displacement in a direction you are anticipating. Once it occurs, you wait for a OPPOSING FVG to print. Expect price to trade into it and then reprice to a pool of liquidity.
- It must offer more than 5 handles.
- TP = 5 handles.
What is one of the NWOG Secret?
Where does the NWOG exist in that old order flow, swing high, swing low?
When do you kill a trade?
When price closes outside the FVG. It shouldn’t print any bodies outside the FVG.
This FVG becomes an Inversion FVG.
What is the SICK Sister Approach?
- Who is the leader?
- The lagger will catch up to it.
You can execute on the lagger.
Dallor can be rallying or ranging.