2 Population Flashcards
Population and Economy are
Interdependent
why do population rise or fell in certain places
population constant –> regional structure constant
regional structure improves –> immigration
regional structure declines –> emigration
push and pull factors have influence
Population influences economy why?
provides labour (human capital) and demanders fro G&S
number of people in a society determined by:
fertility,
mortality
migration
Factor that influence population distributions
push and pull factors:
Cultual
religious (persecution / freedom)
economic (job opportunity, agricultural decline)
ethnic
political (political persecution / freedom, conflicts, wars, peace)
historical
natural resources
institutional
Limits on personal freedom
Environmental degradation
Climate / temperature
hypsometric change (50% of people live under 200m)
Central-peripheral change (near the coast)
Natural hazards / stable natural circumstances
Malthus theory
Principle of population growth
Population tends to grow faster than the subsistence needed to sustain it
population: geometric rate 2,4,8
Food production: arithmetic rate 1,2,3
Population go over the carrying capacity –> population crash –> population is kept in check
Malthus theory: preventive vs positive checks
preventive checks (lower fertility rate)
- shift of marriage
- increased costs of food
Positive checks (increase mortality rate)
- famine
- war
- disease
Why do Malthus theory fail?
3 revolutionary developments
- agriculture (technological advances, farmer work larger plots of land)
- medicine (not so many disease, he expected diseases to wake out entire nations)
- development of contraceptives
For Europe fail… but there in the general level not. in other place in the world there is like water shortage
Esther Boserup’s Theory
the more people =
- the more hand to work
- the more pressure is place on the existing agricultural system
- this stimulate invention
Boserup admits that overpopulation can lead to unsuitable farming –> degrade the land
Neo-Malthusiannism
Overpopulation may increase resouerces degradation (deforestation, destruction of country side, water shortage, climate change, feed next generation) –> potential ecological collapse
demographic transition model
beginning: birth and death rate high (many children needed for farming. many children die at an early age.
death rate decline then also birth rate decline. improved medial care and diet. Fewer children needed.
mortality and fertility rate decline as a result of social and economic development (family planning, good health)
predict that all counties would over time go though four demographic transition stages
Criticism to demographic transition model
- in the moment this model applicable to Europe.
- rigid in assume all counties proceed form stage 1-4 (war, political turmoil)
- status of women is not the same around the world
- Assumes that reduction in fertility are a function of increased wealth and industrialization (status of women and other social developments are ignored)
- Industrialization is difficult to achieve for less developed counties in trading system that protects the industries of developed counties
population projection 2030
:( eastern Europe, south Italy, east Germany
:) British island, France, Scandinavian Countries
fertility rate
High: British Island, Iceland, Scandinavian, France
Low: Eastern counties, Germany
% of people over 65 in 2060
Eastern Countries will have more than 1/3 (2010 less than 1/5)
