2 and 3 - Impact of Industrialisation and why is there debate over climate change? Flashcards
When did the UK start to emit substantial volumes of GHGs?
UK Case Study
During the industrial revolution - early 19th century
Which fuel was mainly used during the industrial revolution?
UK Case Study
Coal
In the 19th century, how much did emissions increase by?
%
UK Case Study
16%
What was the total emissions in 1900?
UK Case Study
115MtCO2e
(Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent)
When was the peak cole production date?
UK Case Study
1916
What year did emissions grow until?
UK Case Study
1973
What were the reasons for continued emissions growth?
UK Case Study
Reliance on Coal, expanding economy.
Why did emissions dip in the 1980s?
UK Case Study
Economic recession, widespread unemployment.
Why did emissions dip in 2009?
UK Case Study
Financial crisis
Why did emissions dip in 2009?
UK Case Study
Financial crisis
What were the total emissions in 1990?
UK Case Study
800MtCO2e
(Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent)
What were the total emissions in 1990?
UK Case Study
800MtCO2e
(Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent)
How has CO2 production changed since 1990?
UK Case Study
Declined by 38%
What are the major reasons for drop in emissions since 1990?
4 points
UK Case Study
- Increased use of gas, renewables and nuclear power.
- Decreased use of coal
- Falling demand for energy across homes, buisnesses and industry due to conservation methods
- International agreements (Kyoto, Paris)
How good has the UK’s decline in emissions been?
Compared with other countries
UK Case Study
Faster than any other AC, and the population is rising so quite impressive.
Does everyone agree that the UK’s decline in emissions has been good?
UK Case Study
Some argue our reduction largely happend because of more imports. This was a good argument at the turn of the century, but in the last decade there have bene genuine cuts.
Current UK energy mix
8 contributors
UK Case Study
- 40% Natural Gas
- 37% Oil
- 3% Coal
- 7% Biofuels
- 7% Nuclear
- 3% Wind
- 0.5% HEP
- 0.5% Solar
Current UK total emissions
UK Case Study
450MtCO2e
(million tonnes CO2 equivelent)
Current UK CO2 emissions per capita
UK Case Study
7tCO2e/yr
(tonnes CO2 equivilent per year per person)
What percentage of the golbal emissions is the UK accounting for?
UK Case Study
1%
What is the future of coal in the UK?
UK Case Study
Due to be phased out by 2025
What was the first supranational pledge by the UK?
UK Case Study
Kyoto agreement in 1997
What did the UK pledge at the Kyoto agreement, and did they acheive this?
UK Case Study
To reduce GHG emissions 12.5% below 1990 levels by 2008-12. Yes.
What is the UK’s current supranational pledge?
UK Case Study
Paris agreement
What is the current UK internal pledge?
UK Case Study
- Climate change act. Meet net zero by 2050: a reduction of 100% from the 1990 baseline. 5 year budgets.
What did the UK pledge in the Paris agreement, and how are they doing?
UK Case Study
Pledged with rest of EU together to reduced GHGs by 40% on 1990 levels by 2030. Hard to judge but they are doing ok.
What is the current UK climate change budget?
UK Case Study
Third budget. 2018-2022.
What happens to the 5 year budgets over time?
UK Case Study
They get smaller
When did China start to emitt substantial volumes of GHGs?
China Case Study
Mid to late 20th century
What was Chinas economic base before the 1970s?
China Case Study
Mainly agricultural
What happened in China in 1978 and what did this do?
China Case Study
Move from strict economy to free market economy (economic liberalisation). Stimulated trade and FDI.
What is the current economic focus of China?
China Case Study
Export-led manufacturing
What was the emissions total in 1900?
China Case Study
26MtCO2e
Why is there so much reliance on coal in China?
China Case Study
Huge reserves across the country so no costly importing and good energy security
When was the peak coal production in China?
China Case Study
Present day
Emissions total in 1990
China Case Study
2400MtCO2e
How has CO2 production changed since 1990?
China Case Study
+300% (Quadrupled)
What are the major reasons for emissions increase since 1990?
4 points
China Case Study
- Population growth
- Increasing affluence ($300pp in 1980 to $10kpp currently)
- Urbanisation
- Manufacturing boom
China emissions compared with other countries
US and UK
China Case Study
- Only behind US on total emissions accumitavely
- Higher than UK on emissions PP
- Highest global emissions annually at more than double the US
China current energy mix
4 points
China Case Study
- 62% Coal
- 19% Oil
- 7% Natural Gas
- 5% HEP
Current China emissions total
China Case Study
> 14,000MtCO2e (worlds highest since 2006)
China emissions per capita
China Case Study
8tCO2e
What % of global emissions is China responisible for?
China Case Study
26%
What is the future of coal
China Case Study
Predicted to flatten usage and stay the same as renewables grow in their percentage share
First supranational pledge
China Case Study
Kyoto Agreement
What did China pledge in Kyoto
China Case Study
China was a developing country so had no binding targets.
What is the current supernational pledge?
China Case Study
Paris agreement
What did China pledge in Paris
China Case Study
- A peak in CO2 emissions by 2030
- 20% of its energy from low carbon sources by 2030
How is China doing with regards to the Paris agreement?
China Case Study
- narrowly achieved its Copenhagen Accord pledges of reaching 15% of energy mix from non-fossil sources but overall GHG emissions increased nearly 40%
- Difficult to judge but stats look bleak
- Government seem to be greening with their policies
What percentage of insolation warms the earth’s surface
47%
How much insolation does the earth’s surface relect? What is this called?
7% - Albedo
What would the average temperature of the earth be without the greenhouse effect?
-18C
What is the greenhouse effect?
- Atmosphere acts as a shield - blocks 1/3 of solar radiation.
- Atmosphere lets short wave radiation reach the surface, which is then absorbed and the earth gives off long wave radiation which is absorbed by GHGs and remitted back into the atmosphere.
- Green house gasses absorb 90% of Earth’s outgoing heat. (Only make up 1% of the atmosphere)
What is the enhanced greenhouse effect
The enhanced greenhouse effect is the rapid increase in the amount of long wave radiation trapped and absorbed by the atmosphere due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasses.
What was the CO2 ppm before the industrial revolution (mid 18th century)
280ppm
What is the CO2 ppm currently?
418ppm
How much more potent is methane than CO2
80x over a 20 year period
What percentages do methane and CO2 make up of human emissions
CO2 - 75%
Methane - 15%
When did direct meaurements of CO2 levels in the atmosphere begin?
1958 in Mauna Loa in Hawaii
What are the main reason for a rapid rise in emissions?
1) Huge surge in demand for energy
2) Massive population growth
3) Land use changes
What are some reasons why there has been a huge growth in energy demand globally?
- Industrialisation of processes
- Mechinisation of agriculture
- Globalisation and more transport
- Increasing affluence is linked to a higher carbon footprint (Between 2021 and 2025, 80m people in India will move into the middle class)
What sectors produce the most greenhouse gas emissisons?
Electricity and Heat, Transport, Manufacturing and Construction
What sectors release the most methane and nitrous oxide?
Waste, Agriculture
Are greenhouse gas emissions reducing or increasing globally currently?
The mass of greenhouse gas emissions has steadily increased in the years 1990-2020. There is currently no real sign of the emissions slowing. Not all countries are emitting GHGs at the same rate, with global superpowers such as India and China emitting far more than other countries.
What is meant by the ‘population J curve’ and the ‘population S curve’
Population J curve shows the graph of population growth to the present day, but the S curve also shows potential flattening of the curve giving it an s shape.
When is the global population predicted to level off
End of the 21st century at around 10bn
What is the current global population
8bn
What land use changes are contributing to greenhous gas emissions and global warming?
- Deforestation or destruction of natural ecosystems which store large amounts of carbon in soils and biomass
- Agriculture often causes the destruction of natural ecosystems, while practices often cause large volumes of CO2 and methane to be released, such as ploughing or cattle farming.
- Urbanisation (urban sprawl)
How can land use changes for agriculture cause carbon emissions?
- Land-use change directly affects the exchange of greenhouse gases between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere.
- Many agricultural and wood products contain carbon. The carbon stocks held in these products are eventually released back to the atmosphere (through decomposition), after the products have served their use.
- Soils contain twice as much carbon as above ground vegetation and the atmosphere. Ploughing and farming causes the soils to lose carbon to the atmosphere.
- Fertiliser is very energy intensive to produce
What is the IPCC and give information
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- Intergovernmental body of the UN
- Set up in 1988 by World Meterological Organization and UN Environment programme
- Aims to provide governments and policy makes with scientific reports on climate change
- Released 6 reports (AR1 to AR6) every 6 or 7 years, with AR6 being most recent in 2021.
- Reports are basis of annual COP talks
- 195 members
- Collects research from thousands of scientists across the world
- Compiles and extracts the important information and is put in reports to make sense of it.
- Largest global organisation tackeling climate change
- Jusrisdiction ends at providing information, still down to countries and intergovernmental organisations to make policies.
What did the IPPC conclude in AR6
‘It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land’
What are the main positives and negatives of the IPCC
Positives:
- Open to all countries
- 1000s of scientists
- Extensive peer review so very accurate
- Has the scientific authority on CC, and its reports are heavily used for policies
Negatives:
- Only reports every 6 or 7 years so it is often out of date
- Has to be signed off by all countries meaning some things get ‘watered down’
- ‘Climategate’ when hacked emails seemed to negate the 2007 report, however it only involved data from one source.
- Apolitical - only provides the information and does not tell policy makers what to do.
- Sometimes there are mistakes, but these are very small and rare.
How much emission are the lower half and upper half of the population responsible for?
- Bottom 50%: 16% of emissions
- Top 50%: 84% of emissions
How much has the planet warmed by since 1850
average global temperature has risen by 1.1C since 1850
How much faster is the arctic warming?
2.5x faster, it has warmed by over 3C since 1850
How much are current policies limiting global warming to?
Roughly 2.5C to 2.9C, but this is much higher than the 2C target
Provide a basic timeline for events for action on climate change:
1970s: There was a long running debate over whether global warming was a reality, what caused it and if it was dangerous
1988: IPCC set up
1992: UNFCCC set up with 41 countries to tackle climate change
1997: Kyoto conference involved 192 countries and was the first time legally binding targets were set
2015: Paris Agreement where countries agreed to keep warming below 2C
What percentage of scientists believe climate change is human caused
97%
What are the top arguments for climate change being the result of primarily human activity?
- Overwhelming scientific consensus
- Rising levels of human-produced gases released into the atmosphere create enhanced greenhouse effect
- The rise in atmospheric CO2 over the last century has occurred at a rate much faster than natural climate changes could produce.
- Average temperatures on earth have increased at a rate far faster than can be explained by natural climate changes.
- Natural changes in the sun’s activity cannot explain 20th century global warming
- Sea levels are rising at an unprecedented rate
- Ocean acidity levels are increasing at an unprecedented rate
- Ocean temperatures are rising at an unprecedented rate
What are the top arguments for climate change not being the result of human activity?
- More than 1000 scientists disagree that human activity is primarily responsible for global climate change
- Earth’s climate has always warmed and cooled, and the 20th century rise in global temperature is within the bounds of natural temperature fluctuations over the past 3,000 years
- Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 do not necessarily cause global warming, which contradicts the core thesis of human-caused climate change
- Human-produced CO2 is re-absorbed by oceans, forests, and other “carbon sinks,” negating any climate changes
- The rate of global warming has slowed over the last decade even though atmospheric CO2 continues to increase
- Sea levels have been steadily rising for thousands of years, and the increase has nothing to do with humans.
- Predictions of accelerating human-caused climate change are based upon computerized climate models that are inadequate and incorrect
How much have sea levels risen since 20,000 years ago
125m
Why is media coverage of climate change important?
Because it dictates what the awareness of climate change is globally, which can in turn influence government decisions.
What is the issue with making climate change a political issue rather than scientific?
‘Scientific illiteracy’ - causes debate and creates tension, when we need to unite to find solutions
Why is it misleading to represent climate activists vs denialists as 50/50.
Because 97% of scientists agree with climate change being caused by humans, so it is not really 50/50. Presenting it as 50/50 means people may get the wrong message about how important or real climate change is.
What is the link between oil states and climate coverage
Oil states such as Russia, parts of the US and middle east provide very little coverage of climate change, even if it is linked to extreme weather events.
What are the issues with extensive climate coverage?
There is no obvious solution so people become scared, and tend to turn their backs and leave it to other people.
Wat percentage of people in China, the UK and US beleive climate change is human caused?
In the UK 95% beleive it is human caused or partly human caused. 5% do not. In the US only 83% beleive this, whil China is the highest at 97%.
Is climate change a future problem or current problem for humans?
The impacts of climate change have truly transferred to humans, whereas 20-30 years ago humans were mainly looking on as it was mainly impacting nature and the environment.
When did climate change enter the public concenssus and what was the public response?
1980s. There was rising concern until around 2007, where polls showed a decline in belief in many developed countries.
What was the problem with ‘The Day After Tommorrow’ with regards to climate change?
The film depicted climate change as something which we can’t stop and happens overnight.
What was the problem with ‘The Day After Tommorrow’ with regards to climate change?
The film depicted climate change as something which we can’t stop and happens overnight.
What is happening in the US politically with regards to climate change?
