17. Understanding Linear Models

Question 1

What is causality?

Answer 1

One event directly leads to another event

(Different from covariance where two variables change together)

Question 2

What are the different conditions for causality?

Answer 2

Covariation
- When two factors occur at the same time but are not related
- E.g. Ice Cream and Shark Attacks

Plausibility
- Is the causation actually plausible to occur?

Temporal precedence

• A happens before B but B does not lead to A etc.

No reasonable alternatives
- Hard to establish
- Fails to account for alternative explanations - may lead to spurious correlations

Question 3

How can causality be tested?

Answer 3

Identifying causal relationships = Examined through study design rather than statistical testing

e.g. test experimental vs observational design (manipulating one variable and seeing it’s effect on the other)

• Needs good causal relation test in the first place as many studies are poorly designed

OR

Propensity score matching = Instrumental variable analysis (use stats to simulate control group)

Question 4

What is a marginal distribution?

Answer 4

An event’s value, independent of other events

Question 5

What is a conditional distribution?

Answer 5

An events value, given the value of another event

Question 6

What is endogeneity?

Answer 6

Theoretically occurs in a marginal distribution of predictor variable and is not independent of conditional distribution of outcome variable, given the predictor variable

Occurs when predictor variable x is correlated with error term - causes bias in beta estimates

e not equal to 0

Question 7

What is an endogenous variable?

Answer 7

An endogenous variable is any variable in the regression model that is correlated with the error term.

Variable measure is determined by the model

Question 8

What is a exogenous variable?

Answer 8

An exogenous variable is an explanatory variable that is not correlated with the error term

Variable measure is determined outside of the model not by the model

Question 9

What are the problems with endogeneity?

Answer 9

• Can’t easily test whether variables are endogenous
  
  • Model estimate of error will be biased by endogenous variable if we have a model with both endogenous and exogenous variable
• Even if you detect endogeneity must still determine why it’s there to solve the issue

Question 10

What are the different sources of endogeneity? (Name only)

Answer 10

Simultaneity bias
Omitted/Confounding variables
Measurement Error

Question 11

What is simultaneity bias?

Answer 11

X causes Y, which causes x

E.g. Farmer’s income <-> crop yield

(y = Beta 0 + Beta 1 (exogenous) + Beta 2 (endogenous)

If endogeneity is due to simultaneity (done at the same time as something else) then x (exogenous) will lead to change in y that will change x (endogenous) as it is linked to the DV/model

More endogenous variables = Effect is more pronounced

Question 12

How do we solve simultaneity bias?

Answer 12

Use statistical methods developed for this situation (two-stage least squares regression)

Question 13

How do omitted/confounding variables explain endogeneity?

Answer 13

In a perfectly exogenous model - effect of x on y is separated from the error term

When x is correlated with both the outcome and an omitted variable z, the variance explained by z falls on ϵ

Question 14

What is the solution for endogeneity when omitted/confounding variables cause it?

Answer 14

Ensure confounds are measured and included in the model, no small tasks, requires thorough knowledge of the topic

Question 15

How does measurement error cause endogeneity?

Answer 15

Instead of measuring x, you measure x∗, which is a measurement of x with error (r) included

E.g. Reporting errors and coding errors

Similar to the case of omitted variables , measurement error becomes part of error but will be associated with x, leading to endogeneity

Question 16

How is the issue of measurement error in causing endogeneity solved?

Answer 16

Careful planning and study design

E.g. through pilot testing

Question 17

What is prediction?

Answer 17

Important application of understanding causality

E.g. it is the aim of LM - To produce a model to predict the outcome variable

Question 18

How do we predict values outwith the original data set?

Answer 18

When collecting data, range of samples in predictor and outcome may span full range of variables as they exist in the world

E.g. Hours spent studying

Can think about it as two sets of unknown values
- Those within range used to estimate model
- Those outside range used to estimate model

Question 19

What is interpolation?

Answer 19

Obtaining a value from a model within the range of given data or points

Question 20

What is extrapolation?

Answer 20

Obtaining value from model from outside a range of given data points

Extrapolation is not recommended - especially as trajectory is unknown
Don’t have patterns on each side to show pattern

Question 21

What is missing data?

Answer 21

Missing data, or missing values, occur when you don’t have data stored for certain variables or participants

Question 22

What are the reasons for missing data?

Answer 22

PPT non-responses, Error in data collection, Errors in data entry, Missing by design

Question 23

What are the two main things to worry about when it comes to missing data?

Answer 23

Two main things to worry about: Loss of efficiency (as smaller sample size) so reduced power and bias (incorrect estimates)

Question 24

What are the types of missing data? (name only)

Answer 24

Missing at random (MAR)
Missing completely at random (MCAR)
Missing not random (MNAR)

Question 25

What is missing at random? (MAR)

Answer 25

When the probability of missing data on a variable y is related to other variables in the model but not to variables of y itself e.g. Those with low self-control are more likely to have missing data on aggression - No way to confirm if this relationship is true

Question 26

What is missing completely at random (MCAR)?

Answer 26

Genuinely random missingness No relation between Y or other variable in model e.g. people at all levels of self-control and aggression = Equal chance of missingness

Question 27

What is missing not random (MNAR) ?

Answer 27

When the probabilities of missingness on Y is related to the values of Y itself e.g. Those high in aggression (y) = increased missing data even when x is controlled - No way to verify

Question 28

What are the three methods to deal with MNAR? (Name only)

Answer 28

Pattern Mixture Models Random Coefficient Models Selection Models

Question 29

What are pattern mixture models as a method to solve MNAR?

Answer 29

Stratifies sampling according to different missing data patterns (separates into patterns such as complete data and missing data) Then, estimate substantiate sub model (models for each pattern) Pool groups together to create a weighted parameter Good to include as part of a sensitivity analysis

Question 30

What are random coefficient models as a method to solved MNAR?

Answer 30

A random coefficient regression is a special type of linear mixed model. They can be used when we want to explore the relationship between a response variable (y) and a continuous explanatory variable (x) and we have repeated measurements of x and y on individual subjects.

Question 31

What are selection models as a method to solved MNAR?

Answer 31

Combine model for predicting missingness as well as analysis model of interest - Selection model = Predict missingness on aggression from covariates - Substantive model = Predict aggression from self-control Parameter estimates are adjusted by select model in sub model Makes strong, untestable assumptions

Question 32

What are the two deletion methods for missing data? (Name and describe)

Answer 32

Listwise deletion/Complete Case Analysis (Not recommended) - Delete everyone who has missing data - Will be biased unless data MCAR - Even if MCAR = Power will be reduced Pairwise deletion/available case analysis (Again not recommended) - Uses available data - Difference cases contribute different correlation in matrix (selects data not involved in correlation) - Doesn't reduce power as much as listwise but if data x MCAR = Biased results

Question 33

What are the three imputation methods? (Name only)

Answer 33

Mean imputation (x recommended) Regression Imputation Multiple imputation (recommended)

Question 34

What is mean imputation method?

Answer 34

Replacing missing values with mean of that variable Issues: Artificially reduces reliability of data and give biased estimates even when data MCAR

Question 35

What is regression imputation?

Answer 35

Replaces missing values with values predicted from regression (use lm to create a predicted value) - Estimate a set of regression equations where the incomplete variables are predicted from the complete variables - Use the regression equations to calculate the predicted values on the incomplete variables Based on the principle of using information from the complete data to estimate the missing data Two forms: - Normal regression - Stochastic regression (adds residual term to overcome loss of variance) Stochastic regression is preferred and is unbiased if MAR

Question 36

What is multiple imputation (recommended method)?

Answer 36

Imputes data multiple times create multiple data sets, analyses conducted for each data set, results pooled across sets to estimated parameters + SE (20 + sets is ideal) SE takes account of additional uncertainty due to missingness Include as many high order effects as possible Unbiased under MAR

Question 37

What is the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method approach to missing data? Recommended

Answer 37

Uses all information in model to create estimates as if they are complete The parameter values are found such that they maximise the likelihood that the process described by the model produced the data that were actually observed Doesn't compute individual values Unbiased estimates MAR Assumes multivariate normality In MCAR - Superior to deletion methods as uses more information Easier to implement than imputation

Question 38

What conditions best suit when to use Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) compared to conditions that suit Multiple imputation?

Answer 38

MLE = Better when When the substantive model includes interactions For structural equation models (more on this in dapR3) For the inexperienced (easier to learn and implement) MI = Better when Structural equation has categorical indicators When there is missing data on predictors When including auxiliary variables (any Variable about which information is available prior to data collection)