15—Guest Lecture

Question 1

What themes obtained IPCC scientific consensus?

Answer 1

• Unprecedented warming of the climate systems is proven on scales of decades to millennia
• Human influence on the climate system is clear (e.g. fossil fuels)
• All regions of the globe are impacted, be it in their atmosphere, land or oceans

Question 2

What are relevant pieces of scientific evidence?

Answer 2

• Since 1860 CO2 concentration has been increasing
• In 100 years, the temperature increased by 1.2 degrees. That’s why some scholars coined the term “Anthropocene”, distinguished by the Holocene

Question 3

What are the North Pole’s geopolitical implications?

Answer 3

• The North Pole is contested by Canada, the US, Russia, Finland and Denmark
• Since it now became almost an ocean, it offers considerably convenient sea routes
  
  • The North Pole route from China to Europe is 1/3 shorter than the traditional’s
• Since the ice melted, new gases and oil deposits have been discovered
• The North Pole is being quickly militarized

Question 4

What are the consequences of climate change?

Answer 4

• Ecological
  
  • Sea level rise, drought, glaciers melting, biodiversity loss …
• Economic:
  
  • Agriculture and food production
  • Ports and low-lying industrial zones
  • Real estate and public infrastructure (permafrost)
• Social
  
  • Intern migration
  • Indigenous people
• Political
  
  • e.g. Siria
• Geopolitical
  
  • International migration
  • Trade patterns

Question 5

What are the drivers behind the emissions’ growth?

Answer 5

• Population Growth
• Humanistic ideals
  
  • 17 UN SDGs’: decent living standards for all:
    
    • Energy: 40% increase in energy demand by 2030

Question 6

What are the pillars of climate governance?

Answer 6

• Scientific urgency: (IPCC)
• Global governance: differences and interdependency between nations
  
  • Having different history, economic development and natural endowment
  • A delicate balance between bottom-up (developing countries)/top-down (the US) approach
    
    • bottom-up: every country provides national environmental regulations → Paris Agreement (NDCs)
• Economic: cost-efficiency
• Fairness and distributional issues

Question 7

Who has contributed most to global CO2 emissions?

Answer 7

• EU-28 (33%)
• North America (29%)
• Asia (29%)
• Africa (3%)
• South America (3%)
• Oceania (1.2%)

Question 8

What emerging plurilateral approaches emerged in COP26?

Answer 8

• Methane
• Coal phase-out (South Africa)
• Deforestation
• Private finance: 130$ trillion
• Climate finance: 100$ bn
  
  • Conditional?

Question 9

What are Europe’s International Strategy focal points?

Answer 9

• Today’s climate change is caused by Western industrialisation
• Multilateral approach
• Europe as a laboratory for “low-carbon” technologies and policies:
  
  • Climate responsability
  • Economic opportunity

Question 10

Tell me about the EU Green Deal

Answer 10

• Europe is taxing carbon: 60-90 euros per ton of CO2
• EU Green Deal:
  2030: 55% GHG reduction (compared to 1990)
  2050: Climate neutrality (without imports of foreign offsets)