1.5 - Climate Uncertainty

Question 1

In the 2014 IPCC report, how much are global temperatures expected to rise by 2100?

Answer 1

Between 1.1 oC and 6.4 oC (large uncertainty)

Question 2

In the 2014 IPCC report, how much are global sea levels expected to rise by 2100?

Answer 2

Between 30 cm to 1 m (large uncertainty)

Question 3

What do the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) show?

Answer 3

The 4 alternative scenarios that climate could take ranging from best case (emissions peak by 2020) to worst case (emissions continue to rise past 2080)

Question 4

What physical processes contribute to varying climate change scenarios?

Answer 4

• Sunspot solar variation

- Volcanic eruptions

Question 5

What human factors contribute to varying climate change scenarios?

Answer 5

• Population growth
• Urbanisation and development
• Deforestation
• Energy Use (Transport and Industry)
• Government Policy

Question 6

How does government policy vary to create potential variations in climate change?

Answer 6

Government may prioritise development (e.g. developing /emerging country) or environmental protection (e.g. developed countries)