1.4 voting behaviour and elections Flashcards
1️⃣ Class and Social Status →
✅ Traditional Class-Based Voting (Pre-1970s)
- Working-class (C2, DE) → Labour
- Linked to trade unions, state intervention, and welfare support.
- Labour’s policies (e.g., nationalisation, NHS creation) appealed to working-class voters.
- Middle & upper class (AB, C1) → Conservative
- Favoured lower taxation, private enterprise, and economic liberalism.
- Voting based on economic self-interest → People voted in line with their class position.
**Class Dealignment (1970s Onwards) **Why?*
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Economic & Social Change →
- Decline of manufacturing, rise of the service sector → fewer traditional working-class jobs.
- Increased homeownership (e.g., Thatcher’s ‘Right to Buy’ scheme) made voters more individualistic.
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Party Repositioning →
- Conservatives appealed to aspirational working-class voters through economic liberalism.
- Labour under Blair shifted to the centre (‘Third Way’), attracting middle-class voters.
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Decline of Trade Unions →
- Union membership fell from 13 million (1979) to 6.4 million (2018), weakening Labour’s working-class base.
📌 Key Examples:
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Thatcher’s Elections (1979, 1983, 1987)
- Won over working-class voters through homeownership, anti-union policies, and privatisation.
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Blair’s New Labour (1997, 2001, 2005)
- Gained middle-class votes by adopting centrist policies (low taxation, private sector involvement in services).
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2019 Election → ‘Red Wall’ Collapse
- Working-class voters in Northern England & Midlands shifted to the Conservatives.
- Driven by Brexit (Labour’s stance seen as ambiguous) and Corbyn’s perceived leadership weakness.
🔎 Evaluation:
- Class still plays a role → Tories still dominate middle-class areas; Labour regained some Red Wall seats in 2024.
- Education & age are now stronger predictors of voting than class.
2️⃣ Partisanship → Partisan Dealignment & Voter Apathy
✅ Strong Partisan Alignment (1945-1970s)
- Voters had deep loyalty to political parties, shaped by:
- Family tradition → People voted as their parents did.
- Community & workplace identity → Industrial towns = Labour; rural areas = Conservative.
- Class-based political affiliation → Labour = working-class, Conservatives = middle/upper-class.
⏩ Partisan Dealignment (1970s Onwards)
- Decline in party loyalty → More floating voters who decide based on issues, leaders, and policies. - Why?
- Weakened Class Identity → More social mobility; fewer lifelong working-class/middle-class divisions.
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Media Influence →
- Rise of TV debates, social media → voters exposed to more diverse political opinions.
- Decline of partisan newspapers (e.g., The Sun no longer consistently backs Conservatives).
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Party Convergence (1990s-2010s) →
- Labour moved to the centre (Blair), while Cameron’s Conservatives adopted socially liberal policies.
- Reduced clear ideological distinctions → voters less emotionally attached to parties
📌 Key Examples:
2010 Election → Rise of the Lib Dems
- Nick Clegg’s strong TV debate performance led to an increase in support from disillusioned Labour/Conservative voters.
- 2017 Election → Labour Surge Among Young Voters
- Corbyn’s campaign energised previously apathetic younger voters.
- 2019 & 2024 Elections → Voter Volatility
- 2019: Conservatives won Red Wall working-class seats.
- 2024: Labour regained lost working-class votes, while Tories collapsed in middle-class areas.
🔎 Evaluation:
- Partisanship still exists in some regions (e.g., Liverpool = strong Labour; Surrey = strong Conservative).
- Turnout decline suggests growing voter apathy, especially among younger voters.
3️⃣ Age & Education: The Strongest Predictors of Voting Behaviour?
✅ Age as the New Class?
Older voters → Conservative
More likely to own property (benefit from Tory policies on tax cuts & pensions).
Socially conservative on immigration & law-and-order issues.
Younger voters → Labour, Green, Lib Dem
More affected by housing crises, tuition fees, and climate change.
More liberal on social issues (e.g., LGBT+ rights, anti-racism).
📌 Key Evidence:
2017 Election → The Generational Divide Becomes Clear
Labour won 67% of 18-24s but only 23% of 65+ voters.
The gap in turnout rates (youth = 47%, elderly = 76%) reinforces Conservative dominance.
2019 Election → The Brexit Factor
Older, Leave-voting regions swung to the Conservatives, prioritising Brexit over economic concerns.
Graduates overwhelmingly supported Labour/Remain parties (Lib Dems gained in university towns).
2024 Election → Education & Age as the Key Dividers
Tories lost middle-class, educated areas (e.g., Surrey) to Labour & Lib Dems.
Labour regained some Red Wall seats, but only among younger working-class voters.
🔎 Evaluation:
- Education is now a stronger predictor of voting than class.
The turnout gap benefits - Conservatives, but their electoral base is at risk as older voters decline.
4️⃣ The Role of Media & Leadership in Election Outcomes
✅ Traditional Media Influence (Pre-2000s)
Newspapers held significant sway (e.g., The Sun famously backing Blair in 1997 → ‘It’s The Sun Wot Won It’).
TV debates became a key factor from 2010 onwards, influencing perceptions of competence.
⏩ The Shift to Digital & Social Media
🔹 Argument: Traditional media has declined in influence, replaced by social media-driven election campaigns.
🔹 Counterargument: Newspapers & TV still matter, especially for older voters who dominate turnout.
📌 Key Evidence:
2010 → The First TV Debates Changed the Game
Nick Clegg’s ‘I Agree With Nick’ moment led to a short-lived Lib Dem surge.
2017 → Social Media & Corbyn’s Popularity Among Young Voters
Labour’s use of viral videos & grassroots campaigning energised youth turnout.
2019 → Media Framing of Corbyn as a ‘Security Risk’
The press overwhelmingly attacked Labour, framing Corbyn as extreme.
Trust in traditional media declined, but narrative control still influenced public perceptions.
🔎 Evaluation:
Social media is growing in influence, but mainstream media still plays a critical role in shaping the electoral narrative.
1️⃣ Ethnicity & Voting Behavior
✅ How Ethnicity Affects Voting
White voters tend to vote for the Conservative Party, while Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) voters are more likely to vote for Labour.
In 2019, 64% of BME voters supported Labour, compared to only 20% for the Conservatives.
⏩ Changes in Voting Patterns by Ethnicity (2019-2024)
🔹 Argument: Ethnicity plays a significant role in voting, but other factors, such as economic issues, can shift these patterns.
🔹 Counterargument: Although ethnicity is important, class and region are still major factors in voting behaviour.
📌 Important Examples:
2019: 64% of BME voters chose Labour, with a majority of white voters backing the Conservatives.
2024: There were major shifts:
Jewish voters: In 2019, less than 10% of Jewish voters supported Labour, but in 2024, 40% voted Labour. This shift was largely because of Keir Starmer’s strong stance against antisemitism in the party.
Muslim voters: In 2019, around 80% of Muslim voters supported Labour, but this dropped to less than 60% in 2024. The decline was due to Labour’s delay in calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, which caused backlash among Muslim voters.
🔎 Evaluation:
Ethnicity continues to shape voting choices, but regional and class factors are increasingly influencing the results. Policy positions also play a significant role in altering traditional voting patterns.
2️⃣ Gender & Voting Behavior
✅ Gender’s Impact on Voting
Women used to be more likely to vote for the Conservative Party, but over time, the gender gap has narrowed.
Young women are more likely to vote for Labour or Green parties, but men are still more likely to vote for Conservative.
⏩ Changes in Gender Voting Trends (2019-2024)
🔹 Argument: While gender was once a strong predictor of voting behavior, age and education now have a bigger influence, especially among younger voters.
🔹 Counterargument: Gender remains relevant, with younger women and older men showing distinct voting preferences.
📌 Important Examples:
2019: In the 18-24 age group, 15% of women voted Conservative, while 28% of men voted Conservative.
2024: The voting patterns of young voters shifted:
12% of men voted for Reform Party and 12% for Green.
6% of women voted for Reform, while 23% of women voted for Green.
This suggests that women in this age group are more likely to support Green policies compared to men.
🔎 Evaluation:
Although gender still affects voting behaviour, youth and political values play a more dominant role in determining voting patterns, particularly among younger voters.
3️⃣ Rational Choice & Voting Behavior
✅ Rational Choice Theory
Rational Choice Theory suggests that voters make decisions by evaluating which party or policy offers the greatest personal benefit.
Economic self-interest is a primary motivator, as voters want policies that benefit them financially.
⏩ How Rational Choice Plays Out in Voting
🔹 Argument: Voters evaluate parties based on policies that serve their personal economic needs (e.g., tax cuts, housing policies).
🔹 Counterargument: Not all voters are purely rational. Many base decisions on ideological beliefs or social values, not just economic concerns.
📌 Important Examples:
Homeowners: Tend to support Conservatives because they benefit from policies like lower property taxes and homeownership incentives.
Renters: Are more likely to vote Labour, as Labour promises better affordable housing policies.
2024 Election: Around 40% of renters voted for Labour, as they promised improved rental conditions and addressed rising mortgage rates caused by the Conservative government.
🔎 Evaluation:
Rational Choice Theory helps explain voting behavior, especially regarding economic interests. However, voters’ social values and ideological commitments can also heavily influence their decisions.
✅ Issue-Based Voting
Issue-based voting refers to voters choosing a party based on their stance on one key issue, even if they don’t agree with the party on other matters.
For example, voters may choose a party based on Brexit or healthcare policies, even if they disagree with that party on other issues.
⏩ How Issue-Based Voting Affected Elections (2019-2024)
🔹 Argument: Brexit was a major issue in the 2019 election, leading many voters to support the party that aligned with their views on leaving the EU.
🔹 Counterargument: While Brexit was crucial, other issues such as the economy and national security still play a big role in voting behaviour.
📌 Important Examples:
2019 Election:
74% of Leave voters voted for the Conservative Party, whereas 49% of Remain voters voted for Labour.
This demonstrated that Brexit was the defining issue for many voters, leading to a shift in voting patterns, especially in the Red Wall areas.
2024 Election: Issues like the economy, housing, and healthcare were still key factors, though the Brexit issue was no longer as central.
1️⃣ Valence Factors – Party Competence Over Policies
🟢 Definition:
Valence issues arise when voters broadly agree on key issues but choose based on which party is most competent to deliver good governance.
This contrasts with position issues, where parties have clear ideological differences.
🔹 Key Points:
When policy differences are small, elections focus on trust, competence, and leadership.
Economic competence is a crucial valence factor—voters often punish governments for perceived economic failures.
🔹 Examples:
2010, 2015, 2019 elections – Voters focused on competence rather than ideology due to broad economic consensus.
1992 Black Wednesday – Conservatives lost their reputation for economic competence, leading to a Labour landslide in 1997.
Liz Truss’ mini-budget (2022) – Led to a collapse in Tory support, contributing to their 2024 defeat.
Evaluation:
✅ Explains why elections can be won/lost despite similar policies.
✅ Applies to floating voters, who prioritise governing ability.
❌ Fails to explain strong partisan voters who remain loyal despite incompetence.
❌ Other factors (charisma, media influence) may override valence factors.
2️⃣ Leadership & the ‘Presidentialisation’ of UK Elections
🟢 Definition:
Leaders are now a central focus of election campaigns, with UK politics becoming more ‘presidential’ (leader-focused) rather than policy-driven.
Media portrayal of leaders significantly influences voter perceptions.
🔹 Key Points:
Since 1979 (Thatcher’s victory), elections have been increasingly leader-focused.
Leaders’ debates and media performances are heavily scrutinised.
Party unity is often linked to leader credibility—weak leadership can result in internal party rebellion.
🔹 Examples:
2010 – Nick Clegg’s debate success (‘Cleggmania’) boosted the Lib Dems, but failed to translate into many seats.
2019 – Boris Johnson’s populist appeal helped win over traditional Labour voters (‘Red Wall’ seats).
2024 – Keir Starmer rebranded Labour as a serious and competent alternative, leading to a major Conservative defeat.
Evaluation:
✅ Significant for swing voters who judge leaders as potential PMs.
✅ Explains why strong leaders (Thatcher, Blair, Johnson) win elections.
❌ Overstated – party ideology, policies, and events still matter more.
❌ Leaders do not always determine results – e.g., Blair won in 1997, but Kinnock lost in 1992 despite strong leadership.
3️⃣ Competence & Government Performance
🟢 Definition:
Voters often use elections to judge the performance of the governing party—this is known as retrospective voting.
Poor governance can result in a ‘punishment vote’, even if the opposition is not strongly favoured.
🔹 Key Points:
Economic performance is crucial – voters hold parties accountable for recession, inflation, or financial crises.
Scandals, party divisions, and crises can destroy electoral credibility.
🔹 Examples:
1997 – Conservatives lost power after years of economic decline, sleaze scandals, and Black Wednesday (1992).
2010 – Labour punished after the 2008 financial crisis, despite global factors.
2024 – Conservative loss due to economic instability (Truss’ mini-budget), Partygate, and leadership turmoil.
🔹 Evaluation:
✅ Explains why long-term governments often lose power.
✅ Voters tend to punish incompetence, even if opposition parties are weak.
❌ Not always decisive – governments can recover (e.g., Conservatives survived the early 1990s recession).
❌ Scandals and economic failure do not always result in electoral defeat (e.g., Johnson survived Partygate in 2019).
4️⃣ Events & Wider Political Context (‘Events, My Dear Boy’)
🟢 Definition:
Unexpected events often reshape elections, making long-term predictions difficult.
Harold Macmillan (‘Events, my dear boy, events’) highlighted how political and economic crises can alter election outcomes.
🔹 Key Points:
Economic crises (e.g., recessions, inflation) influence government popularity.
Political scandals and corruption weaken voter trust.
Foreign policy disasters can undermine a party’s credibility.
🔹 Examples:
1974 – Oil crisis contributed to Labour’s return to power.
2008 – Financial crash weakened Labour’s economic reputation, leading to their 2010 defeat.
2022-2024 – Cost of living crisis, NHS pressures, and Partygate damaged Conservative credibility.
🔹 Evaluation:
✅ Unpredictable events can reshape voter behaviour.
✅ Explains why once-dominant parties can collapse (e.g., 1997 & 2024).
❌ Governments can survive crises with strong leadership (e.g., Thatcher after the Falklands War in 1982).
5️⃣ The Media’s Role in Elections
🟢 Definition:
Media coverage shapes voter perceptions of leaders, parties, and policies.
Newspapers, TV, and social media influence public opinion, but to what extent?
🔹 Arguments that Media Has a Big Impact:
✔ Agenda-setting: The media decides which issues dominate elections (e.g., Brexit in 2019).
✔ Newspaper endorsements: The Sun switching to Labour in 2024 reinforced the anti-Tory mood.
✔ Viral moments: Social media spreads key campaign moments (e.g., debate performances).
🔹 Arguments that Media Has Little Impact:
❌ Voters engage with media they already agree with (reinforcement theory).
❌ Partisan loyalty outweighs media influence.
❌ Major events (e.g., economic crises) often matter more.
🔹 Examples:
2019 – The Daily Mail & Telegraph strongly backed Boris Johnson and framed the election around ‘getting Brexit done’.
2024 – The Sun backed Labour, reflecting (or reinforcing) the wider shift away from the Conservatives.
🔹 Evaluation:
✅ Can influence undecided voters.
✅ Important in shaping party reputations over time.
❌ Not always decisive – parties can win despite negative media (e.g., Labour in 1997 despite right-wing media hostility).
🗳 1979 General Election
📊 Outcome & Significance:
✅ Conservative victory (Margaret Thatcher) → 43-seat majority.
✅ End of post-war consensus politics → Neoliberal economic policies (privatization, free market).
✅ Labour: Worst defeat since 1935, leading to internal left/right factional struggles.
✅ 76% turnout → strong voter engagement, influenced by economic crisis & public sector strikes.
✅ Liberals (13.8%) failed due to FPTP, exposing electoral system flaws.
❓ Why Did the Conservatives Win?
1️⃣ Economic & Social Context
📉 Labour government (Callaghan) faced economic turmoil → high inflation (9%) and unemployment.
📉 Winter of Discontent (1978-79) → widespread strikes damaged Labour’s reputation.
📉 Failed incomes policy (5% wage cap) alienated working-class base → seen as weak on trade unions.
📉 IMF loan (1976) undermined Labour’s credibility as competent economic managers.
💡 Evaluation:
Thatcher capitalized on economic decline, but Britain’s economic problems were long-term and not entirely Labour’s fault.
Public fear of trade unions was key, but Thatcher’s actual policy towards them (limiting power) came later.
2️⃣ Party Leadership & Campaigns
🗣 Callaghan was personally popular (“Sunny Jim”) but seen as complacent.
🗣 Thatcher’s campaign used modern marketing → focused on strong leadership, law & order, tax cuts.
🗣 “Labour Isn’t Working” – highly effective slogan portraying Labour as failing the economy.
💡 Evaluation:
Callaghan’s failure to call an early election (1978) meant Labour faced the Winter of Discontent at its worst.
Thatcher’s personal popularity was limited, and she relied heavily on her party’s electoral machine.
🗳 1997 General Election
📊 Outcome & Significance:
✅ Labour landslide (Tony Blair) → 418 seats (+145), biggest Labour victory.
✅ 43.2% vote share → FPTP translated votes into a 179-seat majority.
✅ End of 18 years of Conservative rule, deep internal party divisions followed.
✅ Turnout: 71.4% – high but lower than 1979, marking start of electoral disengagement.
✅ Tories collapsed (165 seats, lowest since 1906), wiped out in Scotland & Wales.
❓ Why Did Labour Win?
1️⃣ Conservative Weaknesses
📉 John Major’s government (1992-97) lost economic credibility → Black Wednesday (1992) devalued the pound.
📉 Divisions over Europe (Maastricht Treaty, Euroscepticism) fractured the party.
📉 ‘Tory Sleaze’ scandals (cash for questions, sex scandals) eroded public trust.
📉 Unpopular policies: VAT rise, NHS cuts, school closures alienated core voters.
💡 Evaluation:
Tory divisions meant even a weak Labour opposition could have won, but Blair’s modernized Labour ensured a landslide.
Black Wednesday was the turning point, but economic recovery by 1997 suggests Conservatives failed more due to perception than reality.
