1.2 - Changing population and places - IB Geography

Question 1

Regions that have a shrinking population

Answer 1

Europe and Asia

Question 2

Regions that have a growing population

Answer 2

Africa and South Asia

Question 3

How is the global population growing?

Answer 3

Since the global population reached its billionth milestone, which was around the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the population has grown faster, in shorter and shorter periods.

Question 4

On a graph how would the global population be growing?

Answer 4

Exponentially

Question 5

Draw population growth from 1800 to 2050

Question 6

Has the population growth rate stayed the same over the years?

Answer 6

The human population is still growing, but the population growth rate has been declining for years. This means that the population is growing more slowly, which is good.

Question 7

When is the global population predicted to stop growing?

Answer 7

The global population will continue to grow until at least 2050, and maybe later; despite the declining growth rate.

Question 8

What is the population momentum?

Answer 8

The population momentum explains why the global population will continue growing, even though the growth rate has declined. The current growth rate is in relation to the proportion of the population in the childbearing age groups. This is usually considered to be 20–35 years old. If the population is youthful and there are a lot of young adults then the growth rates will be higher. In addition, as the population grows there are simply more people around to procreate, so population growth continues even after growth rates decline. Our world currently is very youthful and we have a high population, which is why the global population is predicted to grow until at least 2050.

Question 9

What is problematic about population predictions being based on fertility levels and it being global?

Answer 9

It’s almost impossible to predict ferility rate in the next 10 years, never mind 100 years from now. The world is constantly changing and fertility will probably change too.

Another problem with global population projections is that population change is not uniform across the globe. Every country is different, so it is difficult to make global predictions. According to the World Bank in 2014 the Republic of Korea (South Korea) had the lowest total fertility rate (1.2 births per woman) and Niger had the highest (7.6 births per woman).

Question 10

What are projections and predictions based upon?

Answer 10

Projections and predictions are rough estimates of future population growth, based on current trends and patterns. These trends and patterns could change at any time, which is why population projections also change over time.

Question 11

When and where does the UN predict the global population to stop off at?

Answer 11

They project that the population will reach 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.

Question 12

Where does the UN predict that the majority of the future population growth will take place? What will happen to the other regions?

Answer 12

They predict that the majority of future population growth is expected to happen in Africa and Asia, and it is expected that India will be the most populous country in the world before the end of 2100.

They predict that the remaining world regions have mostly leveled off already.

Question 13

What does the other theory of population growth predict will happen? How does it predict this?

Answer 13

Global population is unlikely to plateau until after 2100. The theory takes fertility data going back to 1950 and then randomly generates tens of thousands of population projections for each country. The difference between this prediction and the UN’s is this one is generating uncertainty and a range of possibilities about future population growth. From that, it is possible to estimate the probabilities of future population size.

Question 14

What are the variants of the predictions?

Answer 14

The high variant is the worst-case scenario. This would be the global population if death rates fall and life expectancy continues as expected (increasing) but birth rates remain constant.

The medium variant is the most likely scenario as it simply projects current trends into the future using mathematical formulae.

The low variant is the best-case scenario. This would be the case if death rates rise and birth rates fall. Consider how likely you think that is.

Question 15

In the predictions that aren’t made by the UN, where is half of the global population predicted to take place?

Answer 15

More than half of the global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to happen in Africa.

Question 16

What is the challenge if half of the population growth happens in Africa:

Answer 16

If it happens in Africa it means that population growth is likely to happen in some of the poorest countries in the world, which makes it that much harder to:

• eradicate poverty and inequality
• combat hunger and malnutrition
• expand education and health.

Question 17

What is the meaning of demographic transition?

Answer 17

The transition as a country develops from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates.

Question 18

What do the critics of the UN projections argue

Answer 18

• there’s no scientific reason to assume (as the UN does) that China’s fertility will rise again as no trends are pointing in this direction
• fertility estimates for some African countries, especially Nigeria are too high
• the UN projections don’t account for education, especially for girls. Historically proved to be one of the best ways to reduce fertility in the long term.

Question 19

2 reasons population growth is important

Answer 19

1. affects the dependency ratio
2. affects sustainability –> important to know whether there will be sufficient resources left on the planet to support the people of the future

Question 20

Minimum amount of time for fertility rate to drop

Answer 20

Even if fertility rates drop it still takes at least 15 years for the youngest in the population to reach childbearing age, and then another 30 years after that before those people are too old for childbearing. So there is sometimes at least a 45-year delay before lower fertility rates actually turn into lower population growth.

In fact, many demographers assume it takes as long as the average life expectancy before changes in fertility rates become actual changes in population growth.

Question 21

Meaning of population momentum

Answer 21

The continued growth of a population even after fertility rates are down to replacement level.

Question 22

Example of population momentum

Answer 22

China’s population will continue to grow until the 2020s or 2040s, depending on who is doing the estimating. This is despite the implementation of the One Child family planning policy implemented from 1979-2015, which reduced fertility levels to 1.67 by 2012, well below the replacement value and very close to Japan’s fertility levels.

Question 23

What does population momentum also apply too?

Answer 23

Population momentum also applies to population decline. Any attempt to boost fertility levels won’t actually be realised in increased population growth for a few generations, or an average lifespan. That is why it is important to predict future population trends now, because it literally takes a lifetime for changes to manifest themselves.

Question 24

How does population momentum affect population projection?

Answer 24

Population projections are based on current fertility levels, but population momentum shows it takes a lifespan before reduced fertility results in lower population growth. Because of this there is a delay in current data that limits the accuracy of population projections.

Current fertility levels do not account for the size of the population at childbearing age, which is also an important determinant of future population growth. For projections to be accurate, they have to account for the size of the future childbearing population.

Question 25

Rate of population growth for the past 200 years

Answer 25

In the last 200 years the population of our planet has grown exponentially, at a rate of 1.9% per year. If it continued at this rate, with the population doubling every 40 years, by 2600 we would all be standing literally shoulder to shoulder.

Question 26

What can affect population change?

Answer 26

• mostly fertility rates
• mostly mortality rates
• some extent migration

Question 27

What will determine the natural increase rate (NIR)?

Answer 27

The bulk of the change id due to the balance between fertility and mortality as that will determine the natural increase rate (NIR).

Question 28

Mathematical formula for natural population growth

Answer 28

NIR=(CBR−CDR)/10

CBR: Crude birth rate
CDR: Crude death rate

Question 29

Countries with highest NIR (%)

Answer 29

South Sudan: 3.92%

Malawi: 3.32%

Burundi: 3.26%

Niger: 3.22%

Uganda: 3.22%

Question 30

Countries with the lowest NIR (%)

Answer 30

Moldova: -1.04%

Lithuania: -1.06%

Latvia: -1.07%

Saint Piere and Miquelon: -1.09%

Cook Islands: -2.88%

Question 31

Where are the countries located with the highest NIR?

Answer 31

Africa

Question 32

Where are the countries with the lowest NIR?

Answer 32

Eastern Europe or they’re small island states

Many of the populations of middle-income countries (MICs) are technically in decline, or in a state of negative natural increase.

Question 33

What threat does a negative natural increase pose?

Answer 33

Declining populations are good for the planet but they present serious problems for the countries concerned, which face an adverse dependency ratio in the future.

Question 34

How is the fertility rate measured?

Answer 34

Crude birth rate (CBR) and Total fertility rate (TFR)

Question 35

What is CBR?

Answer 35

Crude birth rate (CBR) is essentially the number of babies that are born each year for every thousand people in the population (males and females).

Question 36

Mean global CBR?

Answer 36

The mean global CBR is between 18.7 and 19.15/1000 people per year. The lowest mean rates are in the most developed areas of the world while the highest mean rates are in Africa

Question 37

CBR by region

Answer 37

Africa: 34 CBR
Middle East: 20 CBR
Asia: 19 CBR
South America: 17 CBR
Australia: 13 CBR
North America: 12 CBR
Europe: 11 CBR

Question 38

What does TFR mean?

Answer 38

The total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, based on current trends.

Question 39

Value for TFR for replacement level

Answer 39

2.2 TFR

Question 40

What’s important about the replacement level

Answer 40

A TFR of 2.2 means that a population will remain stable: if the value less than that the NIR will decline; a higher value than 2.2 means it will increase.