11 Flashcards
Consumption
expenditure on goods and services by private individuals
–> biggest expenditure component of GDP (50-70%)
Consumption and GDP volatility
Consumption follows GDP but is less volatile than GDP (moves less over time)
Idea of Basic Keynesian Model of Consumption
people consume their income and they consume more as their income increases
–> but not as much as the increase in income
Household perspective on consumption and savings
either you consume your income or you save it
C/Y = 1 - S/Y
Why is the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) so important?
Keynes’ idea: changes in demand determine economic flucuations
National Accounts identity
Output = Consumption + Government Expenditure + Investment
Y = C + G+ I
insert C
Y = (A+G+I) / (1-c)
Consumption function
C = A + (c*Y)
Keynesian Multiplier
1/1-c > 1
due to impact effect and multiplier effect
Keynesian Multiplier - Intuition
- an increase in government consumption raises aggregate demand and production
- firms increase hiring and wages and thus income increases
- people use some of the extra income to consume
- an increase in consumption raises aggregate demand and production
- firms increase hiring and wages and thus income increases
Permanent Income Model
- Individuals make complex plans throughout their lives
- they form expectations about the future
- they aim to forecast the lifetime pattern of their income and they plan consumption accordingly
- individuals are going to consume very different fractions of their current income
Implications of the Permanent Income Model
Consumption varies less than income today, because changes are distributed over periods
- it will not fall as much in recessions
- it will not rise as much in booms
- consumption smoothing
A temporary increase in income has a lower impact on consumption today than a permanent increase
- additional income will be used to increase consumption a little bit in each period
- crucial wenn thinking about fiscal policy
- temporary increase gives a low MPC –> low multiplier
Expectations about future income can change consumption today
Savings can be lower if individuals expect their income to grow
Caveats of the Permanent Income Model
People have the ability to anticipate their future income ( and uncertainty –> higher savings) => lower multiplier
people must be able to borrow
–> if they can’t: borrowing constraints –> lower C today => large multiplier
Lifetime budget constraint
C(1) + C(2) / (1+r) = Y(1) + Y(2) / (1+r)