1 - The Demand Side Flashcards
The IS Curve
The IS curve is a way of summarising diagrammatically the demand side relationship between output and the interest rate.
OUTPUT AND INTEREST RATE
Why does the IS curve slope downwards
When the interest rate is high, so is the cost of credit and investment will therefore be low.
Low interest rates are associated with greater spending (higher investment/output)
IS curve and an increase in autonomous consumption
Upwards shift
IS curve and a decrease in the interest sensitivity of investment
The multiplier and interest sensitivity of investment affect the slope of the IS curve.
A rise in the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) and the interest rate sensitivity of investment makes the IS curve flatter.
IS curve and an increase in the marginal rate of taxation
K=1/(1-C1(1-t))
Increase in the multiplier makes the IS curve flatter.
Keynesian Cross to show the effect of a decrease in autonomous investment on the economy
The decrease in autonomous investment shifts the IS curve downwards. Output now exceeds Aggregate Demand. Production therefore decreases, which lowers income. This decreases consumption which further reduced Aggregate Demand. Process continues until the new goods equilibrium is reached.
Keynesian cross and the paradox of thrift
The paradox of thrift: if a policy that encourages savings in introduced, with the aim of boosting investment, this will be counteracted by the fact that consumption will fall.
-government spending and investment are autonomous, they are not influenced by saving.
C+S=1
An increase in the marginal propensity to save S implies a fall in the marginal propensity to consume C.
A rise in investment shifts the flatter IS curve upwards.
Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH)
Anticipated changes in income have no effect on consumption. Unanticipated changed in income should affect consumption. The magnitude depends if they are permanent or temporary. Temporary increases in income should have little effect on consumption, as their effect on lifetime wealth is small.
PIH calculations
Lifetime wealth
(1+r)figure
Consumption
r/1+r * (1+r)figure
Discounted
1/1+r
Under the PIH, households smooth their consumption.
The ability to borrow freely is a crucial assumption required by the PIH.
PIH and Excess Sensitivity
Excess Sensitivity: means that consumption reacts more than predicted by the PIH after a change in income
Example: retirement
Observed when income falls, consumption falls.
-consumption was linked with being at work
PIH and Excess Smoothness
-3 reasons why PIH fails
- Credit Constraints
Affects households with little wealth or collateral
-banks prevent borrowing - Impatience
Prevents some households from saving - Uncertainty about future income
Explains precautionary saving over PIH level
Tobin’s q
Tobin’s q theory of investment is forward looking: firms choose the amount of investment to undertake with a view of maximising the expected discounted profits over the lifetime of the project.
When should a firm invest
Tobin’s q
A firm should invest when the marginal benefit of investment exceed marginal cost.
This happens when: price of output increases, marginal productivity of capital increases, reduction in the rate of interest and depreciation.
What is the key problem with measuring marginal q
Marginal q is hard to measure as you cannot observe marginal product of capital.
Average Q can be used instead:
Q= Market value of firm
Replacement cost of capital