1 - Davies et. al Flashcards
Davies et.al Main Research Question
The paper seeks to analyze trends in organized violence between 1989 and 2022, with a particular focus on the return of interstate conflicts, using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
Davies et. al, What are the three categories of organized violence used in the study?
(1) State-based armed conflict (violence between states or a state and an organized group),
(2) Non-state conflict (violence between organized groups without state involvement), and
(3) One-sided violence (violence targeting civilians by states or non-state actors).
What is the threshold for a conflict to be included in the UCDP dataset?
At least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar year.
Davies et. al How does the paper define “state-based conflict”?
An armed conflict where a government is one of the warring parties.
How does the study measure conflict intensity?
By counting battle-related deaths per year, distinguishing between low, best, and high estimates.
What challenges exist in measuring conflict-related fatalities?
Incomplete or biased reporting, difficulty in verifying sources, and limitations in event-based data collection, particularly in active war zones like Ukraine and Ethiopia.
How does the study define “war”?
A state-based conflict that results in at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in a year.
What is “internationalized intrastate conflict”?
A conflict where a non-state actor is supported by external states with troops.
What is “proxy conflict” in the context of the study?
Conflicts where major powers support opposing sides in intrastate conflicts, such as Russia vs. the West in Syria and Ukraine.
What trend in interstate conflict does the paper highlight?
A rising number of territorial disputes have led to more conflicts between states, reversing previous declines in interstate wars.
What are the three major takeaways from this study?
Organized violence increased sharply in 2022, driven by interstate and state-based conflicts (Ukraine, Ethiopia).
Geopolitical tensions are fueling the return of interstate conflicts, with growing rivalries between great powers.
Non-state and one-sided violence remain high, particularly gang violence in Mexico and state-led atrocities in Ukraine and Ethiopia.
What research design does the study use to analyze trends in organized violence, and why is this design appropriate?
A: The study employs a longitudinal trend analysis using event-based data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). This design is appropriate because it allows for temporal comparisons of conflict trends, identification of escalation and de-escalation patterns, and assessment of the impact of geopolitical shifts on organized violence.
What type of data structure does the study use: cross-sectional, time-series, or panel data?
A: The study utilizes time-series data, where yearly observations of conflict-related fatalities and conflict characteristics are recorded from 1989 to 2022. This allows for the examination of long-term trends and patterns in organized violence.
How is “organized violence” operationalized in this study, and what are its three subcategories?
Organized violence is operationalized as violent events resulting in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a calendar year. It is further categorized into:
State-based conflict – where at least one party is a government.
Non-state conflict – between non-governmental actors, such as armed groups or criminal organizations.
One-sided violence – deliberate attacks on civilians by either state or non-state actors.
How does the study differentiate between “battle-related deaths” and “one-sided violence”?
A: Battle-related deaths refer to fatalities occurring as a direct result of combat between two organized armed actors, while one-sided violence includes intentional civilian targeting by either a state or non-state actor, such as massacres or extrajudicial killings.
Q: Identify the dependent variable in the study and explain how it is measured.
A: The dependent variable is the level of organized violence, which is operationalized as the number of battle-related deaths per year. This is measured using event-based coding from the UCDP dataset.
What are some of the independent variables used to explain variations in the dependent variable?
Conflict type (state-based, non-state, one-sided violence)
Geographical region (Africa, Middle East, Asia, etc.)
International involvement (presence of external states supporting one or more sides)
Political regime type (democratic vs. autocratic states)
Conflict escalation patterns (e.g., surge in fighting due to external intervention)
Q: How does the study account for confounding variables that might influence the relationship between organized violence and its predictors?
A: The study controls for regional effects, geopolitical events, and conflict history by segmenting the analysis into sub-regions and distinguishing between different types of conflicts (e.g., interstate vs. intrastate, state vs. non-state).
