07 - Driver 1 - Surveys Flashcards
Leading drivers predict…
CB and government reaction
Coincident drivers lag policy commitment from…
CB, government and leading indicators
Endogenous
Inside the system
Exogenous
Outside the system
Injections
Inflationary, cause growth
Withdrawls
Deflationary, slow down economy
What contribution does PMI have to GDP in the US
20%
What correlation does ISM manufacturing data have to Real GDP growth in the US?
85%
What is the ISM made up of
New orders Production Employment Deliveries Inventories All 20% weighed
What contribution does NMI have to economy
80%
What makes up the NMI
Business activity New orders Deliveries Inventories 25%
What is UMCSI?
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Level of confidence consumers have about the stability and future prospects of their incomes.
Sentiment low - less spending, save more, economy shrinks
Sentiment high - more spending, less saving, economy expands
When UMCSI is 71 to 95, what bias
Short bias. Inflation, consumers spending, economy expands. dollar decreases in value
When UMCSI is 63 to 73, bias is
Long. Deflation, consumers spending less, economy slowing. Dollar increases in value.
What does building permits show you
- Developer sentiment, bullish or bearish
- Demand from US consumers
- Supply of loans and therefore liquidity and health of lending environment
What surveys do we look at
ISM PMI
ISM NMI
UMCSI
building permits
