06 Qualitative Methods -Process Tracing

Question 1

Evidence to support our
hunch: Straw in the wind

Answer 1

Person X has a motive
Weakest test: Low level of uniqueness, low level of certainty
Passing: affirms relevancy but does not confirm it
Failing: Hypothesis is not eliminated but is slightly weakened
If it passed, it slightly weakens rival hypotheses, if it fails it slightly strengthens rival hypotheses

Question 2

Evidence to support our
hunch: Hoops

Answer 2

Person X has no alibi
More demanding test: Low level of uniqueness, high level of certainty
Passing: Affirms relevance of hypothesis but does not confirm it
If it passed, it somewhat weakens rival hypotheses, if it fails it somewhat strengthens rival hypotheses

Question 3

Evidence to support our
hunch: Smoking gun

Answer 3

Person X is found on the
murder scene with the
murder weapon in hand
Passing: confirms hypothesis
Failing: Hypothesis is not eliminated but somewhat weakened
If it passed, it substantially weakens rival hypotheses, if it fails it somewhat strengthens rival hypotheses

Question 4

Evidence to support our
hunch: Doubly decisive

Answer 4

Person X is on video of
the murder
High certainty, high uniqueness
Passing: Confirms hypothesis and eliminates others
Failing: eliminates hypothesis
If it passed, it eliminates rival hypotheses, if it fails substantially strengthens rival hypotheses