04. Demand forecasting

Question 1

3 Forecasting methods

Answer 1

Subjective Models: DELPHI methods, Utilising experts but not much past data.
Time series Models: Moving averages, exponential smoothing
Casual models: Regression Models

Question 2

3 forecasting types

Answer 2

Demand forecasting (needed for reveneu forecast)
Occupancy forecasting
Revenue Forecasting

Question 3

4 components of effective forecasting

Answer 3

1. Insight info
2. Historical data
3. Current data
4. Future data

Question 4

Denials Vs Regrets

Answer 4

o Denials: The hotel rejects the request for a room due to the hotel’s reason
o Regrets: The caller cancels after a rate has been quoted. Both are lost business

Question 5

unconstrained demand is made up of…?

Answer 5

• Unconstrained demand = Constrained demand + Denials + Regrets.

Question 6

why we have unconstrained demand still sometime on the day hotel is not full

Answer 6

This unconstrained demand may have LOS longer than we can/want to host

Question 7

3 demand forecasting model?

Answer 7

1. Arrival forecast (average booking curve, pick-up forecasting method)
2. Rate control with demand control chart DDC
3. Frecasting Error measure