03: The American Election's Impact on Global Equity Markets Flashcards
Trump plans for Energy
- pro Canadian-US oil projects
- less volatile and stronger oil sector - Deregulate GHG emissions in energy and oil in the US
- potential higher profits in USA
cheaper locally
- reduces Saudi and Russian oil reliance
–> focus on growing domestic business
Harris plans for Energy
Advocate Clean Energy
1. long term goal - reduce reliance on fossil fuels
Grow Domestic Business
- support short term stability
- invest in clean energy sectors w/ Canada
–>
Trump plans for Trade
Support domestic business
- increase tariffs by 10% internationally, and 60 % on China
- long-run overall profitability in USA
Trump Trade Impact on Canada & China
Canada
1. crude
2. automative sector
China
1. electric equipment
2. broadcasting equipment
3. high exposure to American tariffs
US-China trade war impact on stock markets
Dow Jones
Hang Seng
Shanghai Composite
Harris on Trade
- Trade w/ China
- similar restrictions as trump (tech, manufacturing, semi conductors, EVs)
- does not want to cause global supply chain disruptions (avoids putting tariffs)
- -> impacts U.S tech companies involvement in China - lower revenue & more expenses (research for new sourcing & supplier relationships) - USMCA Trade Agreement 2026
- stronger environmental protections
–> higher cost for energy intensive sectors - Renewable energy
- new investment opportunities in green technologies in North America
Trump Financial Policies
- lower corporate tax
- lower interest rates
- end over time tax
- higher company profits and increases economic activity
–> invest in elsewhere & opportunity expansion
–> create more job opportunities
Harris financial policies
- corporate tax increase
- to narrow gap between small and big business
- tax deductions & loan access
Trump on Defence
Does not adhere to the 2% of GDP goal
1. increase spending in Europe & Canada
2. increase defense sector spending by other NATO members
- increased volatility in this sector & potential risk of war
Trump’s Effects on Energy (Saudi and Russian oil)
benefits:
- increases employment
- strengthen its geopolitical influence by providing energy to allies in Europe
cons:
- Paris agreement
–> large companies work towards net zero
- reach net zero 2050 which is the goal
What would you invest in Trump
- domestic business
–> increasing geopolitical tensions
–> invest in companies
Trump pushes for looser monetary policies
- criticised high interest rates and lower rates would spur economic growth
- support additional borrowing to prevent interest rates from rising
–> increases money supply lowers interest rates
–> increased reserve ratio means lower money supply
What invest in Kamala
- invest in clean energy
- to reach the net zero plan for Paris Agreement
How to combine Kamala and Trump policies together (domestic & energy)
- manufacturing is a waste of energy
–> automation & implementation of AI - Kamala Harris comes in with renewable and clean energy
–> data centres how they are using cleaner alternatives to supply
What canadiate’s policies will likely negatively impact Canadian trade the most?
Kamala
- oil pipelines
- biggest trades they have that support Canada’s growth
–> oil is one Canada’s biggest natural resources
- push for clean energy may create more compliance costs for mining, energy, and agriculture
Trump
- tariffs on Canada
- relies on US, as they are they’re biggest trading partner
- will have to strengthen their other partnerships with other countries
–> other countries won’t find Canada as lucrative b/c they are far away and they don’t have the supply to be able to give as much
